Pro Macro: Flash Update: August 19, 2022

Published on: August 19th, 2022

In my In Focus, out last week, I went into the pros and cons of sitting on our hands for the time being. At the end of the piece, under the sub-heading “Don’t Get Too Cute”, I concluded, “On balance, I am inclined to wait. Either for an extension of this short squeeze and sell around 4400 or to sell on weakness once it starts to roll.”


  • HH
    Hugh H.
    19 August 2022 @ 19:52
    No emails again? Should I check this site every hour or so?
    • JM
      John M.
      19 August 2022 @ 21:59
      Got the email after the close...
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    19 August 2022 @ 21:05
    Anyone else logged in but can't download?
    • MW
      Matthew W.
      19 August 2022 @ 21:14
      ok works now
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    20 August 2022 @ 01:25
    Awesome, thank you Julian
  • BT
    Bill T.
    20 August 2022 @ 04:56
    I like. The trades are simple, nothing fancy.
  • TR
    Tom R.
    20 August 2022 @ 07:10
    Super clear, thank you.
  • NA
    N A.
    20 August 2022 @ 21:34
    Sorry for dumb question, what's the tick size for SPX?
    • DD
      Donal D.
      29 August 2022 @ 06:59 Symbol SPX Underlying The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks from a broad range of industries. The component stocks are weighted according to the total market value of their outstanding shares. The impact of a component's price change is proportional to the issue's total market value, which is the share price times the number of shares outstanding. These are summed for all 500 stocks and divided by a predetermined base value. The base value for the S&P 500 Index is adjusted to reflect changes in capitalization resulting from mergers, acquisitions, stock rights, substitutions, etc. Index Components Multiplier $100. Premium Quote Stated in decimals. One point equals $100. Minimum tick for options trading below 3.00 is 0.05 ($5.00) and for all other series, 0.10 ($10.00).
  • AL
    Alex L.
    22 August 2022 @ 05:08
    We like the puts. Agree with what others have said, I like the clesr and simple trade. Would be interested to hear how you think China bailing out real estate will affect global inflation going forward.
  • RG
    Rob G.
    23 August 2022 @ 00:39
    Great update Julian. I agree with the strategy but the only concern I have is the CFTC non-commercial position in the SPX of short 260K contracts (-2.4 on a 1 year Z-score). Wouldn't you be better off in the QQQ which still has a small net long position? thanks
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    23 August 2022 @ 12:46
    What does "risk 3/4 premium" mean?
  • AL
    Alex L.
    30 August 2022 @ 17:57
    Literally printing money. How do we buy Julian a beer?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 August 2022 @ 21:09
      He does like a beer. Red wine also works.