Pro Macro: Flash Update – February 2, 2023

Published on: February 2nd, 2023

Very much in line with my thinking, the Fed dialed back on their hawkish rhetoric at yesterday’s FOMC meeting sending stocks sharply higher into the close. The much-hated NDX, has also confirmed a breakout of its bullish wedge, something I have been expecting…


  • WM
    William M.
    2 February 2023 @ 18:28
    A brave contrarian call. My other advisors are calling for a sharp shock to come at any time. As I am 6 figures into Etrherium I will have no choice but to take a punt on this one.
    • sL
      scott L.
      2 February 2023 @ 23:15
      My wife keeps yelling at me "Michael Burry says...!!!" which is so polar opposite from Raoul's view. Other's thoughts on how to interpret the difference of two respected folks?
    • SR
      Steve R.
      2 February 2023 @ 19:34
      You always have a choice. You could either reduce position size or hedge as part of your risk management framework. Right now its basically all one trade anyway, all up or all down.
  • DH
    David H.
    2 February 2023 @ 19:23
    What is the best way to do this in a normal brokerage account?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 February 2023 @ 11:26
      QQQ is fine
  • JK
    James K.
    2 February 2023 @ 21:23
    By NDX ….. does Raoul mean NASDAQ …. NDX opened @ 12,655 & closed @ 12,803 ….. TIA
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 February 2023 @ 11:25
      I wrote it before the market opened. so NDX 12500 means it was triggered on receipt of the publication.
    • ME
      Mark E.
      2 February 2023 @ 21:40
      i assume we are waiting for a pull back to 12500.(hopefully that is a correct assumption)
  • KC
    2 February 2023 @ 21:41
    Any bias toward equal weighted or market cap weighted indexes?
  • sL
    scott L.
    2 February 2023 @ 23:13
    How do folks balance Raoul's rosy picture vs gloom-and-doom Burry???
    • MW
      Matthew W.
      2 February 2023 @ 23:49
      Burry just deleted his Twitter account. Bottom signal? XD
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    3 February 2023 @ 00:52
    NIce. I think call options on the QQQ will be my play (maybe with vol in the teens prices have come down).. Otherwise, I may just cut the shorts that Julian recommended as part of his Latin America call. Man, we've got a lot of smart people going different directions. I'm tempted to play options in both directions assuming vol has brought options pricing down (I haven't looked at the chain in a bit). No one seems to think that the market will stay put, watch that happen, ha. Tough markets to predict.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    3 February 2023 @ 04:49
    If liquidity is increasing then the market goes up. If liquidity is decreasing then the market goes down. Right now its literally that simple. If you are unsure of what to do then just do nothing. Remember, you don't HAVE to trade.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    3 February 2023 @ 05:31
    This is the consensus trade now. Just as everyone was bearish and we are getting this rally.. I'll take the other side. There is more pain to come...