Pro Macro: In Focus – Discontinuous

Published on: March 11th, 2022

In the shadow of Putin’s war, as sanctions are applied, scarcity rears its head. Supply chains, already reeling from Covid, now have a geopolitical component. Markets for specific commodities have become discontinuous. Mainstream markets are only just beginning to adjust to higher risk and higher volatility by reducing the present value of future cash flows. Discontinuity could be infectious.


  • js
    james s.
    11 March 2022 @ 18:30
    Having a tough time finding EDZ2 on TD Think or Swim Futures. Any suggestions for a substitute?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2022 @ 12:06
      Any leveraged short dated credit fund will give you a correlated return. But working out appropriate sizing could be tricky. On IB, the eurodollar future has a GE ticker.
  • SS
    Shane S.
    12 March 2022 @ 02:33
    thanks Julian. Confirming the XME/SPY is 1 for 1 in terms of dollar exposure?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2022 @ 12:06
      Yes, 1:1 dollar exposure, even though the ratio is used for entry, exit and stop points.
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    12 March 2022 @ 03:36
    Are the green or black trade recommendations new vs. old? Green = new right?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2022 @ 12:08
      So those trades were in the last In Focus Portfolio but they might not have been in the previous JB In Focus. So perhaps they are new in that sense.
  • PP
    Percy P.
    13 March 2022 @ 02:12
    HYG seems to be rapidly approaching 80. I am wondering what's the plan for the next step, strategywise.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      13 March 2022 @ 14:05
      From memory the target is something like 75. But I suspect that target might be overly conservative given recent events. Someone must have lost a lot of money due to events in the Ukraine. Credit events often cause cascading defaults.