Pro Macro: In Focus – Entering The Exponential Age

Published on: April 21st, 2022

Julian is going to hate Raoul for this! Raoul wants to buy the beaten-up Exponential Age names. He has waited for eighteen months to put the trade on, now is the time…


  • WM
    William M.
    21 April 2022 @ 17:33
    My primary concern here is the "missing" market correction. I think stocks (of some description) are going to be the place to be as Sovereign Bonds are simply heading toward guaranteed confiscation certificates. The USA is going to experience trillion plus twin deficits, especially if there is a recession and QE is established. At some point confidence is going to be lost, whether or not inflation peaks in 2Q. The macro economic impact of the Soviet.....sorry Russian military action and the West's response is a game changer and many countries (including India) are seeing the "if you are not with us you are against us" approach developing, led by the USA, UK and the EU. All of the aforementioned leaves me is a much more pessimistic place than I was even during the Covid response. However, Raoul is a visionary and though he will obviously be either right or wrong, I will take a small punt on his Exponential thesis (I am already irresponsibly long ETH) and closely watch the stocks mentioned. But I can't commit more than 1% of my investment funds at this point because I still feel there is another down leg in the markets ahead, and the growth stocks will be hit yet again if there is. To sum up in the immortal words of Lily Tomlin, "Its going to get a lot worse before it gets worse."
  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 April 2022 @ 18:11
    Hi Raoul, good report. A couple of things. First seems prudent to have a hedge. What would you suggest? Second, how will your view change if yields blow through on the 10 year of 3%? We're getting cozy to it as I write.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 April 2022 @ 13:50
      Long mining/commodity names?
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    21 April 2022 @ 19:13
    Much appreciated, thanks Raoul
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    21 April 2022 @ 20:31
    If crypto falls under the exponential age thesis, how come you're not DCAing into any ETH or alts? Do you still see exponential returns with crypto in the 1-5 year time horizon? I know you're still holding all your positions from the Macro Insiders talk but still curious. Thanks Raoul!
    • AH
      Anthony H.
      23 April 2022 @ 02:46
      Thanks Raoul! My primary position is in crypto so always love hearing your insights with macro & other "faster horses"
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 April 2022 @ 13:49
      Im always adding to crypto. Im not ready to pull the trigger on more calls but waiting for on chain activity to change.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    21 April 2022 @ 21:21
    This is 1999 all over again. Great thesis, but you'll be able to pick all this stuff up way way cheaper than now, even after the recent large percentage moves lower. Still way too much hype, hot money, and BS in this sector, needs a massive final flush out, and I fear its coming up sooner than you all imagine. Ultimately at the end of every business chain is a consumer, and if consumers are suffering under rising inflation, rising interest rates, a faltering economy, rising unemployment, then none of this will matter, consumers will simply not have the money to participate, its low priority, period.
  • ly
    lena y.
    22 April 2022 @ 01:47
    How should one size this allocation, assuming the time frame is long?
  • MG
    Marc G.
    22 April 2022 @ 02:41
    I always love reading Raoul and Julian's reports. I agree with Raoul that Tech is where all the growth is going to be but, it seems as if Raoul was bearish for a long time and then became bullish at the wrong time. Issued his exponential age thesis around this time last year and its seems that's when these high growth names peaked. I am still curious as to how Raoul is bullish these exponential names when he also thinks growth is going to slow down. Wouldn't that lead to further declines in these high growth names?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 April 2022 @ 13:48
      I was bullish the thesis but never pulled the trigger as I wanted a big correction, which I now have...
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    22 April 2022 @ 11:06
    Looks like Raoul's probability of a possible 30% correction is supported by Michel Howell, "Expect a 30% Correction In Stocks, Says Godfather Of Global Liquidity | Michael Howell" - Note; 30% down from peak, which would mean another 20% from now +/-. (btw, can't believe Jack is still sitting in front of that same book case :-)
    • ly
      lena y.
      23 April 2022 @ 20:19
      buying for a duration of eight weeks would dissipate some risks
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      22 April 2022 @ 11:07
      Wanted to add, WTFK :-)
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    22 April 2022 @ 11:18
    Raoul is always early (as he sez himself) but this report is gutsy and you have to admire him standing by his conviction (whether you agree or not). Putting this out is gutsy imo.
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    22 April 2022 @ 19:39
    Been wondering one thing...let's look a few years into the future...we are busy building a new financial system, everything (stocks, bonds, other) will be tokenized. Defi will change tradfi. Apart from Galaxy and possibly Coinbase this notion is not represented here. There are no Metaverse ETF's either, it's only represented by META (FB) and perhaps some ARKK companies (NVDIA).. Is that enough? Should there be things like the new Fidelity ETF (FDIG) or BLOK to represent the evolving payments systems? I have opined that some of these Metaverse ETF's are possibly better ARKK's than ARKK but that's just my opinion. Of course anyone is free to add/modify whatever portfolio Raoul is proposing. It would be interesting to hear his, or anyone else's, thoughts....
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      25 April 2022 @ 09:16
      tumbleweeds :-)
  • YC
    Yi C.
    22 April 2022 @ 23:21
    What a gutsy call! Time will tell!
  • LS
    Luca S.
    23 April 2022 @ 14:24
    I think this report will age well, given the long time time horizon allowed for the main thesis to work out, and the punishment that's already been inflicted to the broad growth\hypergrowth sector(s). Some very profitable growth stocks are really down to stupid cheap, I don't care what anybody says (Coinbase is a perfect example). It remains to be seen if the March bottom at 13K in the Nasdaq will hold or give way. Monday may bring a bounce if Macron wins the reelection and everything else stays equal on the macro front. The last 3 weeks in the Nasdaq have been just as bad as the previous 3 had been (very suspiciously) good, and the last two days have been "down everything", so it wouldn't take much for an oversold bounce to materialize. When Macron won back in April 2017, world markets ripped higher, and just kept going for months, despite Fed rate hikes and QT. Conditions are very different from 2017, but there's enough to keep the bears on their toes. And some exp age stocks may be acquired from one day to another if they get to cheap. Short sellers beware.
  • DS
    David S.
    23 April 2022 @ 19:02
    I have been aggressively raising my cash position by selling non-core positions, cutting losers and trimming winners over the past 60 days. I wasn't looking to market time, but de-risk and have ammo if/when we get a correction/recession. We all knew Raoul was going to pull the trigger on this trade one day. I am a little surprised it was this week. Doesn't feel like a blood in the streets moment yet. Markets were selling into Friday's close. Using DCA is my style. Much to think about.
  • cb
    carter b.
    25 April 2022 @ 15:10
    Good list Raoul but I humbly suggest you add OSTK to this list, as they own TZERO which owns 50% of the new BSTX digital market and just got an investment from ICE, and hired ICE CSO David Goone as their new CEO. The only SEC / FINRA approved digital token exchange!
  • SM
    Sean M.
    27 April 2022 @ 20:30
    Are the 147 TLT calls a hedge to this trade?