Spoke to JB to get his take. Some part of the oil price has a premium for a RF invasion of Ukraine, and the disruption to international energy markets. But if you ignore that, rig counts in the US (and globally) remain well below where you would expect them to be given the oil price. Past poor performance from the US shale patch has really restricted the ability of that sector to raise money. Generally ESG considerations have impacted the attractiveness of new drilling. Yes, DUCs (Drilled but uncompleted wells) will be opened, but new drilling is not picking up. Without new supply, the only thing which can get oil down is less demand. Julian suggests it would be unwise to hold your breath while waiting for demand to moderate.

Thanks Harry M thats how I understood the reco. James I cant tell you how long now I have been waiting for a 2nd weekly confirmation above 1850 .....AND then a weekly above around 1875. The latter will signify to me that we are off to the races........ I have been long the metals for 4 the miners for 2 years now. Currently up only 15-20% on the metals and still down about 10% on my miner average. Have not lost faith in the least.

Yes it did. But one might fear that the Ukraine scare could have triggered a false break. If you haven't already put it on, wait for a second move above 1850. If you have it on then yes we thought it did break out but at time of writing its currently below the break out level.

Somewhat concerned if there is war, Fed uses that to stall raising rates … if no war, stocks pop, metals tank …Anyway …will see …

See answer below Lena. It did look like it was breaking out but its just a little more ambiguous now, although it is above 1850. Yes we like it, but there is a lot of noise around Ukraine which may be messing up price signals. If it is breaking out, it says a lot about the environment. Bottom line is that its something Julian is biased towards trying to avoid missing it. Easy to see how it could move a long way when it moves. But that bias means its easy to get whipsawed. Just the cost of doing business Im afraid.

Exactly that! Its been a great trade and there is no serious case for saying its done yet. But if we have a tough enough market all correlations go to 1.

Cos thats the most recent technical resistance. Consider it a bayesian conditional. JB likes silver, and is biased to thinking it has to go up., Partly cos of inflation pressures, but also partly cos of reflation - it has industrial uses, and in particular uses in solar. So there is a chance of quite a sustained rally, if we have this right. Thing is, nobody gets everything right, hence stops etc...

>> okay, but then why wait for a weekly close above 24.50 and not go in right now? The theory here is that it could go below 20 unless it breaks the 24.5 price on a weekly close. Nothings set in stone. Its just technicals.

okay, but then why wait for a weekly close above 24.50 and not go in right now?

I dont know about you, but Im a married middle age man with 3 kids. I definitely do not always get what I want. In the same way, while JB would love to accumulate a big position in Silver in the low $20, it really doesnt look very likely at this stage. PMs do look a lot like they are breaking out, and it would be a shame to get nothing if Silver were to join the party.

XME SL = 45

Also what's the stop loss and target like for the updated XME trade?