Taking Profits

Published on: March 18th, 2020

With economy after economy shutting down, markets are massively unstable… With this in mind, Raoul thinks that now is the time to take some profits, give yourself the opportunity to act quickly and look to reposition in due course… Check out Raoul’s Flash Update, which was released in tandem with this In Focus and is complementary to this report: https://rvtv.io/2UhoWoT

Comments

  • WM
    Will M.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:02
    Can I ask any Bitcoin RVers, I am NOW interested in owning "a few bitcoin" and also is there a way to buy call options on bitcoin. It appears low enough now to be a moderate risk but high reward. Is Coinbase the way to go and what about an account within an IRA? Grateful for pointers. THX!
    • SS
      S S.
      18 March 2020 @ 21:11
      Coinbase, Kraken are good. It takes a while to open an account though. Also worth mentioning that when you buy bitcoin from an exchange, buy some hardware like Ledger and transfer it to that so even if an exchange gets hacked or closes your bitcoin is safe.
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      18 March 2020 @ 21:47
      I use Binance, the largest exchange in the world and Binance.us if you are in the US. Agreed that if you have a significant amount you really need to buy a hardware wallet to secure (and own) your bitcoins. Ledger is great (I have a few), Trezor is also widely recognised. -> Make sure you understand how they works before transferring anything on them. For options on Bitcoin you can use FTX that have calls & puts for bitcoin. You might wan't to buy a few ETH (Ethereum) as the price is very good right now and they have the largest amount of developers / Partnership / corporation supporting them and really unlock the power of blockchain.
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      18 March 2020 @ 23:26
      To have exposure without owning the coins you can use ... eToro
    • TE
      Timothy E.
      19 March 2020 @ 00:51
      I use Gemini. Had more than $1 million go through them multiple times without a hitch.
    • CE
      Christoph E.
      19 March 2020 @ 06:26
      Once you have Bitcoin, you can use it at deribit.com to buy call european-style options (as well as puts or buy/sell futures). I highly recommend deribit. Also, check out deribit's Position Builder at pb.deribit.com to plan and visualize your positions.
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 March 2020 @ 13:43
      Great stuff guys. I am going to look at all these option this week.
    • JW
      Jim W.
      19 March 2020 @ 14:08
      I use Binfinity, but there are plenty of other good exchanges listed below. Binfinity is set up for institutional trading and there is lots of other great stuff, but I'm an investor in both Binfinity and Realvision so am biased :-).
    • JW
      J W.
      20 March 2020 @ 16:04
      I am using eToro. They have military grade security. They are a very well funded company. The ease of use is excellent. If you are uncomfortable with them holding your keys, they also have a wallet and you can xfer your coins from eToro to your wallet (and even transfer to non-eToro wallets from there). I have not done that yet even though it goes somewhat against the Bitcoin ethos (not your keys, not your coins :-). I believe that custody is not a bad thing especially with a trusted source, but in the end having your own wallet is probably the best way to hold BTC.
    • BS
      Brian S.
      22 April 2020 @ 02:09
      If you want to buy bitcoin same day in any amount and take possession I recommend www.rockwelltrades.com In full disclosure my firm owns www.rockwelltrades.com
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    19 April 2020 @ 22:00
    I have 1 question about bitcoin. Why would the dollar devalue against bitcoin and rally in almost everything else? Who are the big buyers? Or do you for see a geo event like a war in Asia?
  • MS
    Michael S.
    18 April 2020 @ 20:49
    Hi RP. I'm hoovering up physical gold. If I havent quite graduated to Bitcoin intellectually, I assume gold is a fine secondary way to play your thesis? Thx
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    31 March 2020 @ 04:45
    With all my respect for your work, seems like you are forcing the trade on the dollar. Your thesis might be overly biased that prevent you to see clearly what the market is saying. First the volatily has and must be suppressed by the fed. No one has any of interest to see the dollar moving violently on the upside and/or especially on the downside. Plus the risk, in my opinion, on the downside is too great. You are not happy with a +/-15% on equities risk reward. But how much do you price it on the dollar? Surely the downside risk must be greater than the short term upside trend in a context of unlimited printing, high unemployment, negative GDP, historical deficits and election uncertainty where as China has sorted out his mess already and lead the recovery now.
  • DM
    Davis M.
    19 March 2020 @ 13:10
    Hi All This is a novice question for anyone. I have a large cash position. How are you protecting your cash position? Are you leaving it with the brokerage money funds or rolling 1 month T-bills?
    • JW
      J W.
      19 March 2020 @ 14:39
      Can't call myself an expert - just an avid RV reader - but I can tell you what I have done and that is have it spread around several accounts, with multiple banks and brokerages, just in current accounts and brokerage accounts (some of these pay interest still).
    • SN
      SAT N.
      19 March 2020 @ 16:13
      1-3 month T Bills are safe, I think. BIL ETF is an easy way to manage it, but it may have additional risks that I am unaware of.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 March 2020 @ 14:00
      Break it up into deposits which are protected by the FDIC deposit insurance. Own T-bill directly and not cash or funds. Custodial accounts are fiduciaries and do not own the securities in them so you are not exposed to the credit risk of the broker.
  • PZ
    Penghao Z.
    19 March 2020 @ 21:10
    Hi Raoul, how does the recently established temporary dollar swap lines for Asian central banks and RBA impact your thesis for the dollar?
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      20 March 2020 @ 03:22
      I have the same question. We need an update!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 March 2020 @ 13:58
      I think there has been an update on this. It will mitigate the demand for dollars. But its too early to say whether it is sufficient.
  • OB
    Ove B.
    20 March 2020 @ 08:07
    Hello! I'm pretty new here. When Raoul mentions that there will be/is liquidity problems, what does that exactly mean? How is there a shortage of dollars?
    • KB
      Keith B.
      20 March 2020 @ 09:17
      These will give some background for you re the dollar strength - https://www.realvision.com/tv/search/?parameters_query=milkshake
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 March 2020 @ 13:57
      There has been massive demand for liquidity, which when you consider the hit to revenues is not entirely surprising. Everyone (corporations, households, small business) needs cash to get through the next few weeks. This caused a problem in markets (as you could see). And sorry for the delay in responding to this.
  • CS
    C S.
    21 March 2020 @ 07:20
    Raoul, you and many people talk a lot about 'inflationary' effects of all this stimulus that will come from governments, money printing. My question is this: if all this printing is done in full employment it should be inflationary, bad for fiat currency, gold should go up. If now unemployment will be high, demand shock (people dont travel, dont fly, dont spend, lose jobs, cannot buy house, car, etc) - such loss of demand is very DEFLATIONARY (!?). Does it mean government printing may offset part of demand destruction. But overall how it can be inflationary? am i missing something? Thank you to explain how it works in your view.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 March 2020 @ 13:55
      Counter argument. Supply chains are long and involved. People are unemployed but not just in the US. Globally. So the global supply curve is inhibited. There are now many products which are only made in China or Japan or Korea. So the sheer numbers of people who are not producing things, plus the scale of the government money printing efforts can lead to inflation, as we come out of the slump. Agreed, while we are in the middle of the slump thats less likely. But not impossible.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    22 March 2020 @ 19:20
    As a regular Joe suburban American who knows plenty of gun owners, but doesn't own one personally, I've been fascinated by overseas observers' view of American gun owners. I think you completely misunderstand them. My call: American gun owners will stay in their homes and do their part to contain the virus. It's America's inner-cities that'll be the sh!t show.
  • DM
    Doug M.
    20 March 2020 @ 19:19
    Raoul, Do you think products like UUP will be successful as a product? What if your right about the dollar, but the big boys that are taking the opposite side of the UUP for Invesco, just say, yep, we lost, we were wrong, but we are broke and not paying. If your UUP trade works, won't so many be broke that they don't pay the ETN UUP? Invesco just says, read your prospectus, it says they will try to match the daily move in the dollar, but when they can't, they just say oops, sorry about you.
  • MK
    MILTOS K.
    20 March 2020 @ 08:06
    Hello just a proposal , it may be good if RV Pro members have the ability to switch on sometype of email alert when a flash update or take profit is posted by the team. This way we get the information on our email that something important is communicated. Thank you
    • JL
      Jack L.
      20 March 2020 @ 18:15
      I asked about this a week or so ago in another comment thread -- and then I thought about it more. In some ways it may be better not to flash-update everyone at once. That way there isn't a sudden surge of trading on a certain instrument which might tend to trigger tactical counter-moves from algorithms. RV Pro could perhaps move to staggered notifications (i.e. spacing them out over say, an hour or more) but this raises questions of fairness. Which RV Pro users get notified first? That could be mitigated by implementing a randomized or round-robin ordering but that adds complexity.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    20 March 2020 @ 15:52
    Raoul, do we expect DXY to surge before Fall this year or later, based on how your assessment is playing out currently? And, do you have a target for DXY?
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      20 March 2020 @ 16:04
      ...and UUP :-)
  • TE
    Timothy E.
    19 March 2020 @ 00:57
    Besides bitcoin, what about other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum? I think there is a lot more crypto related business around Ethereum, due to the ability of their chain to work with smart contracts. It seems that every time a new alt coin or project is released, they always use Eth to create their initial coin offering. It's so standardized at this point, there is a boilerplate codebase for creating tokens, called ERC-20, which everyone uses.
    • bw
      brent w.
      20 March 2020 @ 11:49
      I've been in this space for quite a while, have coded my own wallets, and here is my opinion for what it is worth. Regardless of where a programmer is working in the crypto-space, the overwhelming majority would agree that Bitcoin (BTC) is the safest system out there. It is the oldest, most battle hardened, most adopted institutionally, and it is also the simplest system. Simple is important. Bitcoin was also designed for exactly what we need right now: a safe place to store your wealth. I am quite sure that in a run up, there will be other cryptocurrencies that will do better percentage wise, but they will also do worse on the downside as history has shown. For the severity of what we are facing, there is no need to try to get tricky particularly if you are not a programmer who is familiar with this space. The upside will be good enough with BTC. If you can get 10X returns in this environment with BTC, don't worry about somebody else possibly getting 15X.
  • KT
    Kai T.
    19 March 2020 @ 16:44
    This may be a stupid question, but here goes. How does one decide when to dollar-cost average? Raoul says he'll dollar-cost average every Friday over a month. Is there something special about Friday, Raoul?
    • JW
      J W.
      19 March 2020 @ 18:31
      You don't, you just pick a day and stick with it regardless. Nobody knows what the right day. is.
    • bw
      brent w.
      20 March 2020 @ 11:28
      Agree. Just pick a day.
  • CS
    Cameron S.
    18 March 2020 @ 20:59
    I haven't been in the copper trade yet, was waiting for the cliff of death. Would you recommend waiting for a bounce to get in since it has moved so far already? Or just jump on the freight train and hope it keeps going? Thank you!
    • KB
      Kevin B.
      18 March 2020 @ 22:40
      I'm in this boat too - would love to hope on the train but can't catch a stop with it falling like this and wondering about just jumping in regardless. Also, what security are we talking about here for copper...just Copper Futures?
    • BF
      Brad F.
      19 March 2020 @ 22:36
      Looks like you got your chance today
  • RH
    Rob H.
    19 March 2020 @ 19:26
    Is anyone else finding it harder to find things on the website after the subscriber level change? I hate the web version now because I liked the separation for Marco Insiders.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:20
    I'm new to currency trading. Can someone describe how to execute the trades mentioned in the note? I'm good on the BTC side. I need some guidance on the Sell GBP/JPY. No idea where to begin :) ... Thanks!
    • CS
      C S.
      19 March 2020 @ 09:03
      I dont see the 'buy dollars' in selling GBP/JPY Thomas
    • TS
      Thomas S.
      19 March 2020 @ 19:01
      Right ... I meant to say USD/GBP, USD/JPY ... not the actual pair I used. Someone suggested buying the UUP ETF as that will accomplish a similar objective. Would love to see a primer on trading currencies if anyone can provide. Thanks!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    19 March 2020 @ 11:55
    Thank you Raoul! Very helpful. Stay safe.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    19 March 2020 @ 11:55
    Thank you Raoul! Very helpful. Stay safe.
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    19 March 2020 @ 11:00
    Regarding the EUR/USD pair Raul tweeted today: "THE biggest level in the history of the Euro (and its past imputed basket) 1.07. My expectation remains for sub 80c."
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      19 March 2020 @ 11:41
      Paying $3k here to get free twitter access ;)
  • TF
    Thomas F.
    19 March 2020 @ 10:21
    Do you have a view what will happen to real estate? Is it the part of the everything bubble that thrives or will prices there fall, too?
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    19 March 2020 @ 06:31
    Hello, having no experience with FX so far, what is the most common leverage? I have opened a small 15X position and I am wondering wether this is suitable. Thanks for any pointers.
    • SM
      Syd M.
      19 March 2020 @ 08:01
      I am wondering the same thing. Any guidance would be appreciated.
  • GV
    Giovanni V.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:01
    Plaza Accord 2.0 is coming
  • JR
    Justin R.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:06
    Raoul - I am new to the bitcoin trade. Can you recommend the best way to get exposure to bitcoin? Thanks.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:24
      You'll need to set up a bitcoin account with any of the biggest brokers, It takes time.
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      18 March 2020 @ 21:59
      I use Binance, the largest exchange in the world and Binance.us if you are in the US. If you have a significant amount you really need to buy a hardware wallet to secure (and own) your bitcoins. Ledger is great (I have a few), Trezor is also widely recognised. -> Make sure you understand how they works before transferring anything on them.
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      18 March 2020 @ 23:27
      To have exposure without owning the coins you can use ... eToro
  • Ev
    Emiel v.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:49
    Thanks @Raoul for clearly pointing out the liquidity risk. But even in FX trades there is counterparty risk. I still remember the "Swiss event". Due to the revaluation of the Swiss franc in 2015 big financial institutions got liquidated. As mentioned in your video update I would like to setup my charts. Yet, the question seems to be.. "Where can the (small) retail investor safely trade the currency markets?" Any thougts on using, CFD's, Futures Turbo/speeders or options??
  • JM
    Jake M.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:48
    Hi Raoul, do you think DEUR ETN is a good alternative to UUP ETF for higher leveraging?
  • NN
    Nathan N.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:11
    Raoul, you seem confident there won’t be a run on banks in US. I’ve seen others I respect that aren’t so sure. What makes you confident there won’t be?
  • MS
    Michiel S.
    18 March 2020 @ 20:31
    Hi Raoul, I am an old school guy liking physical Gold but believe you and maybe also the Bitcoin trade, although I must add it is mainly because of distrust in the Fiat currency system. I have been watching it develop from when it was USD 10,- but want to be more confident on how and where to buy and store. Who can we trust? Please give us your preferences to this as security is in the end crucial. Thanks Michiel
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      18 March 2020 @ 21:57
      For security you have 2 options. 1) Trust a third party and leave your coin on an exchange (there is a real third party risk as this is a nascent industry). The most trusted one would be Binance & Binance.us (if in the US) as they have hundreds of millions in reserve in case of an unforeseen event (like a hack). 2) Trust yourself (what I do). Buy a hardware wallet (Ledger or Trezor) and transfer your bitcoin on it. Now be careful if you loose the device AND you loose the secret 24 word password that goes with it, NO ONE will be able to access your fund and they will be lost forever. You need to keep that 24 word password SAFE and SECRET as anyone with them will be able to access your fund. If you know what you are doing, this is by very far the best way to keep your bitcoin as no one (no government, bank ...) can access them.
  • J
    Jim .
    18 March 2020 @ 18:24
    Thanks Raoul, quick question I know you said to cover shorts in equity and credit, but if you are underweight credit would you go yo neutral yet? Great stuff. Regards
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 20:28
      No...
  • BS
    Bernd S.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:29
    Newbie question: How large of an FX position does make sense? I made it short 15% each in JPY and GBP. Or the other way: What's the downside we're looking at? How much are we expecting the currencies to move in the best/worst case? Any help is appreciated. (Can't believe how much I've been learning here in such a short time!)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 20:28
      Currencies are lower vol so you can size accordingly with you step loss in place
  • MR
    Michael R.
    18 March 2020 @ 19:33
    Hi Raoul, great update! - any thoughts on euro$? - you mentioned last time you still have some positions on for cmi? thanks for sharing your thoughts! stay safe & best regards from Switzerland
  • TA
    T A.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:44
    do u recommend to use futures in these trade or just the normal Fx pair ? thanks
    • TA
      T A.
      18 March 2020 @ 18:48
      just noticed... u mentioned the futures in the conclusion sorry and thanks for the timely updates
  • JS
    J S.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:38
    Thank you and be safe.
  • JF
    John F.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:00
    Hi Raoul, thanks for this excellent and prescient update and advice so far in this unstable market! You allowed many of us to weather this storm. Re the currency trades, do you have a view as to whether the CME futures are okay to trade rather than forex, and if so, what contract expirations.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:24
      Yes. Expirations doesn't matter as you can just roll them
  • BH
    Brian H.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:10
    Thank you, Raoul, for the timely update and guidance. If we have HYG puts that are massively in the money, is your advice to sell those to close as well and focus on currencies and bitcoin? Thanks for your time.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:24
      Yes, that is my choice right now. I might get back in at some point.