Tightly Wound

Published on: November 15th, 2017

As the bull market in everything extends and becomes increasingly expensive, Julian is concerned that sooner, rather than later, something will go off the rails and catch the market wrong-footed.

Comments

  • DP
    Devraj P.
    24 November 2017 @ 02:00
    I remember somewhere Raoul mentioning there will be an insight from GMI and MI2. Will there be any mention which piece is coming from them?
  • AT
    A T.
    17 November 2017 @ 09:51
    Is there any way that we can get in touch with Julian and Raoul in a more active way ? I would appreciate if Julian could elaborate his view that inflation will pick up with data and model . It would be more useful and we can learn something . Regards
    • DP
      Devraj P.
      24 November 2017 @ 01:52
      I too agree with you on this. Accessibility to Raoul and JB is important in addition to having a common forum where in participants can discuss ideas in centralize location apart from such in-depth article comments. Can we have an update on the forum?
  • JH
    Jonathon H.
    21 November 2017 @ 11:04
    Hi Julian, I am best described as an experienced retail investor with decent size. The European HY vs US 10yrs you outlined above struck me as very enticing as you pointed out that there appears to be very limited downside. Can u suggest a sensible way to match size and play this? I am comfortable with futures/options/etfs but cannot access bond markets directly with my $1M capital. I have not structured a hedge trade before, typically being outright long or short. Any help would be appreciated, regards Jonathon
  • SA
    Sandeep A.
    20 November 2017 @ 23:13
    I intend to subscribe to the service for at least two years. Any macro investment framework may not work for a shorter timeframe. As I see it, both Julian and Raoul are advising that the market may enter a period of higher volatility in 2018, which is when a lot more macro trades may be available. Meanwhile they are building their investment thesis and suggesting some early trades. I agree with Hot M. that they should not feel pressured into recommending trades prematurely. However they should also set client expectations clearly.
  • TA
    The A.
    19 November 2017 @ 22:32
    I would like to remind the readers on the value the Julian brings to Macro Insiders. I'll just give one example. He explained the new measure of 'super core inflation' that was introduced by the ecb in the Meeting of minds piece from June. He also developed a model to predict this super core inflation. Look at how good it has worked historically. We know from his work that inflation will probably be much stronger than most people expect in the beginning of next year. He also gave a great history lesson on european inflation dynamics in the late 1990s, early 2000s and how they are similar to today in that June meeting of minds piece. When I look at all his other pieces, I learn a lot of history from his writings. I think it is also extremely valuable that we can see what his models are predicting. I doubt that the readers here have their own predictive models (I surely don't) so they are very valuable to me. I'll admit that for the more experienced people, an article like this is a little bit light on content. However, there are also less experienced people who gain value from this. On the trades I would like to say that the product was never advertised to be a short term trading product. It was stated that the product would help us to catch the big moves. (I remember that the gold bull market that started in 2000 was given as an example.) If the thesis that Julian laid out for the past few months will play out so that rates will rise and the stock market will correct, than this is a big move that was captured and I think most people in the mainstream media don't expect this. So, that offers a lot of value to me. I would also like to remind the readers that Soros win rate was about 30%, Paul Tudor Jones had a win rate of about 20%, Peter Brand has a win rate of about 40%. There is a reason that some of the best investors live by the following words of Soros: "It is not about whether you are wrong or right. It is about how much you lose when you are wrong and how much you win when you are right." This is exactly the reason why Raoul and Julian give you these levels to watch so that you know when to enter but also when to exit a trade.
    • AT
      A T.
      20 November 2017 @ 15:13
      Agree , I appreciate Julian work on inflation but it would be great if he could elaborate more why he reached that conclusion
  • CS
    C S.
    20 November 2017 @ 13:10
    joeri below has it right. There's a lot of valuable educational info. My main interest is whether we're going risk-on or risk-off. When I saw there would be a report a week I worried that the contributors would feel a duty to perform on that regular a basis. I would prefer they pipe up only when they had strong feelings that things were likley to turn (or a decent trade might arise), even if that meant not hearing from them for 6 weeks. But then there is a lot of info being provided that they are going to considerable effort to impart. I would like to think that they do not feel pressured and will continue to proceed as their natural investing/trading instincts dictate.
  • GM
    Gerald M.
    15 November 2017 @ 20:48
    @Richard B. I completely understand your frustration. Julian has recommended two trades (the Gold trade that was stopped out and the JPY trade that has gone nowhere that he now recommends we cut the position). Raoul has given us three trades, two quite a bit underwater (Eurodollars and XOM) and UUP which is slightly up but nothing to write home about. The reality is that we are now in month six of this "$3000 service, halfway through, and we have nothing to show for it except net negative. Yes, this sounds harsh but it is completely accurate. In the summer we were told to wait for the Fall, now it's 2018. At this rate, we will run out of service before we get enough value to compensate for the price. So I really do understand your frustration. I can only hope that the last half of this service redeems itself. I'm not even looking for gains, just enough value for me to recoup my expenses.
    • md
      mike d.
      19 November 2017 @ 13:40
      I completely agree !!!!
  • md
    mike d.
    19 November 2017 @ 13:36
    This sight is not what it was pumped up to be. I feel foolish that I bought the hype. no more $ from me. live and learn, I'm out.
  • RL
    Robert L.
    19 November 2017 @ 04:43
    It doesn't necessarily bother me that the trade ideas have not worked in aggregate. As Raoul has stated before, the investment horizon has to match the idea horizon and my feeling is that the recommendations are meant for for 12-18 months. But I totally agree with Richard B below - there is little value add in this type of research - the type of clients who pay for macro insiders are already aware that volatility is low, etc, etc. Plain vanilla research is not what I expected from this service, while Raoul's work done on demographics has been interesting. Which direction is this going to go?
  • RB
    Richard B.
    15 November 2017 @ 17:42
    Hi Julian, This research piece adds little value, you've basically just given a run down on what is happening in the markets. I get more information on 'what is happening in the markets' when I read WSJ's daily shot each day, which is significantly cheaper. Not one single research piece you have written thus far has added value for me. A lot of your research pieces seem to state the obvious, or repeat what has been said recently. You were compared to Bridgewater's Ray Dalio in the marketing campaign for Macro Insiders but clearly this is a ridiculous statement. Is this really the type of content you put out to your institutional clients?? I have been patient in waiting for something good; no one is going to hammer out amazing research week after week but so far you have yielded nothing. I appreciate that the markets are dull right now but there has to be something more insightful you can talk about. You could talk about the Saudi/Iran situation; look back at history of Middle Eastern wars and look at the effect on oil prices. You could talk about the Brexit negotiations and the implications for Sterling and the BOE's Monetary policy. Examples of research pieces that have added value so far: Raoul's piece on the aging US population and what that means for inflation, Raoul's piece examining how he builds an investment framework, and Raoul's call on the US dollar over the FED meeting.
    • TA
      The A.
      15 November 2017 @ 17:45
    • SB
      S. B.
      16 November 2017 @ 11:39
      I am sorry to say I agree. But I also think Raoul repeats his thesis about oil, the dollar, India and demographics without adding much new information. I already knew all those things from his RealVision TV interviews and his Twitter stream and a few Global Macro Investor newsletter. I think Macro Insiders in its current form is not suited for a longer term retail investor like myself and not worth the very steep price. Price vs Value seems much lower than the other Realvision news channels. Maybe 'Macro insiders' was mainly created for traders and professional investors, In that case, I misunderstood it's purpose when subscribing.
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      17 November 2017 @ 19:17
      Thought it was spectacular piece myself. Like poker, don't be the idiot who wants to play every hand ;)
  • RM
    Robert M.
    16 November 2017 @ 00:09
    In fairness to Julian he has laid out his thesis and given you things to watch for(future trading opportunities). It seems to me like a lot of people on here just want Raoul & Julian to spit off trade ideas just for the sake of it. They want to be fed trade ideas and do no digging or exercise any patience. Julian has painted a picture of the world as it is now and what it will look like if it changes. He told us what he thinks the catalyst is for those changes and what asset classes will be affected. The value in Macro insiders is what you decide to do with the information presented to you when the time actually comes. They will obviously give you suggestions along the way, but putting no effort in and just copying their trade ideas seems like a waste of this service to me. It is human nature to want instant gratification especially after spending $3000, but I believe being patient and paying attention to Julian's insights will pay off in the future through reduced loses or profits if you are able to trade on them. If you go back and look at his interviews on Real Vision he got a lot of the macro calls correct and opened up endless trading opportunities for people because he explained the environment we were in. PATIENCE everyone!
    • RB
      Richard B.
      16 November 2017 @ 08:47
      Hi Robert, I can't speak for others on this service, but for me this isn't about trade ideas. Non of the trade ideas presented thus far on Macro Insiders fit in with how I trade the markets, I don't care if they work or not. Most trade ideas don't work, no matter how good you are. It's all about the quality of your risk management - Raoul and Julian can't teach you that. For what we have paid for this service, I feel it is completely unacceptable to have articles that basically 'Tell us whats going on in the markets' and 'Tell us to watch our currency risk' - to highlight the two that I've got my biggest gripe with.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      17 November 2017 @ 15:38
      Richard, I can definitely agree with you that some of the individual articles are useless to some. I am not saying this is a perfect service because I think there are lots of things both Raoul and Julian can improve on. This is a brand new service for both of them with a very diverse group of investors which is almost impossible to make everyone happy. That being said I think for $3000 a year the reports should be much longer and more in depth. They should review ALL their previous In Focus and Meeting of Minds pieces and give us updates on EVERYTHING as they publish new things(sort of do this now, but it would be great to review everything just not a single recommendation). Also when giving trade recommendations they should always give multiple ways to trade it (ETFS, Options, Futures...etc.) which will allow more sophisticated investors and retail traders to act accordingly. I prefer the insider talks being at least an hour which gives them time to talk about more things going on in the markets like you requested. This is NOT a perfect service nor should we expect it to be, it only has only existed for 6 months. The best we can do is let them know what we expect from the service so they can make improvements. It just seems to me, and I am not accusing you of this, that some people want to just copy trades and watch the money flow in which we all know is not how good investment research works. We are paying them for their current views on markets, and their opinions on where markets will be in the future.
  • SB
    S. B.
    16 November 2017 @ 11:50
    I believe inflation will be the main theme in the coming years, not deflation. There will be rising wages, especially in northern Europe and in China. Even with all the aging populations, more money will be printed when the economy falls back. Worldwide dept dictates this. Even Raoul stated he thinks equities could keep rising (prevented by the central Banks to fall more than maybe 15%-20%) XIIID piece outlines this. Also, I do not think oil will crash to below 30, maybe back to 45-50. I think the EUR/USD will remain more or less stable between 1.15 and 1.25. And India will probably outperform in the long term.
    • SB
      S. B.
      16 November 2017 @ 11:54
      Also, I believe the market will have a correction of 15%, but it won't be a true bear market until much farther. I am by no means a stock market bull. I still remain quite bearish in fact. I am still hoping for some better value opportunities.
  • SA
    Sandeep A.
    16 November 2017 @ 07:45
    Hi Julian, Raoul seems to believes the market has peaked, (he doesn't expect an inversion of the yield curve at this level of yields, and he and thinks consumer demand is heading south). All of this is pointing at a possibility of recession next year according to him. You believe that the market is heading towards a high inflation, high growth phase which can then create conditions for the next recession. It is already tightly wound, and an inflationary environment will wind it even tighter. But is the inflation heading higher? ECRI's future inflation gauge is pointing to a lower inflation ahead of us. Doesn't this support the standard narrative, which is that we may get one or two more growth cycles before a recession hits us. Also with the Fed actively managing volatility, the next recession may be a very shallow one.
  • HB
    Heini B.
    15 November 2017 @ 15:32
    Thanks for the update Julian, I would love to hear your thoughts on the Global Cash Balances that Kyle highlighted with Mark Cuban; at 110% of global GDP or if you include Sov. Debt below 1% yield then its 170% of global GDP vs historical 40% of Global GDP. How the heck can markets adhere to fundamentals with such liquidity sloshing around?
    • TA
      The A.
      15 November 2017 @ 17:43
      For every seller there is a buyer. If I decide to buy for 100 million Apple stock, my 100 million has left the sidelines (the money on the sidelines argument). However, I have to buy my shares from someone else. This means that the person I buy the shares from loses his shares but gets the money in exchange. The person now has my 100 million. So the argument that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines isn't really valid because now the person I bought the shares from is holding the cash. Here is Claudio Borio from the BIS on the topic: "By the same token, the popular and powerful image that additional saving bids up financial asset prices (and hence depresses yields and interest rates) because it “has to be allocated somewhere” is misleading. There is no such thing as a “wall of saving” in the aggregate. Saving is not a wall, but a “hole” in aggregate spending."
    • TH
      Thomas H.
      16 November 2017 @ 01:57
      Help me. If Apple buys back it's stock at 150 and it goes to 100, did not Apple just evaporate one third of the profits it spent on buybacks?
  • SB
    S. B.
    15 November 2017 @ 16:04
    Half a year to a year ago the opinion under smart investors was that Emerging Markets were undervalued. the US was already overvalued, Europe was better, but EM was the best long-term investment. What if EM breaks out to the upside of it's trading range? Look at the chart of EEM, maybe a pullback, but long-term?