Episode Summary

Does Anyone Want to Talk About Stagflation?

Not since March 2000 has the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis-point increase to the federal funds target rate. Now, the FOMC is a day away from doing just that. And traders are pricing in near-even-money odds of a 75-basis-point hike in June. The FOMC is also expected to introduce its plan to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on Wednesday, a process with its own implications for interest rates. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains late Tuesday. Factory orders for March rose a better-than-expected 2.2%, job openings reached an all-time high of 11.5 million, and U.S. natural gas prices hit a 13-year high on growing concern supply will fall short of demand this summer. The data suggest the Fed has room to do what it needs to do to fight inflation. But, as Warren Pies notes, “Oil is driving this market…” And there are structural factors at play that could make the central bank’s job impossible. Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura to talk about today’s price action, tomorrow’s decision by the FOMC, and the prospect of stagflation afflicting the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kEtIKN