Vulnerabilities of the Reflation Consensus

Published on
January 7th, 2021
34 minutes

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Vulnerabilities of the Reflation Consensus

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ed Harrison, and Roger Hirst

Published on: January 7th, 2021 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst examine the consensus around reflation which has gripped financial markets – a narrative that Roger views as the most unanimous one he’s seen in his entire career. Ed and Roger first define reflation as a pick-up in growth alongside inflation and explore why so many market participants believe it to be a foregone conclusion. They then discuss the rush into small-caps, high yield, and low-quality stocks that has occurred as the confidence in reflation has strengthened. Ed and Roger consider everything from the yield curve to job losses to speculative positioning in copper and cattle, and they look forward to what is on the horizon for markets and the economy. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines why the political unrest in Washington didn’t dent cryptocurrency or the stock market’s ongoing rally Thursday, and she looks ahead at what to expect from the job market in 2021.