Comments
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SBWhile I think Art and Brian did a great job. I think Brian could have asked more in depth questions, like “how does Central Bank liquidity play into your thesis?”. Not in a “gotcha way” to disorient Art, but to pose questions that are typically not asked by mainstream media.
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SSSell side guy, what can he say..
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JBHe literally named all the distractions to the market that every single person is looking at. Trading based on those narratives is extremely dangerous as all the real macro data rolls over.
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JNChina and Fed and Shutdown. Wow. More vanilla ice cream from a cliche smith.
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AGIll make a bold call : The Real Vision that has been so amazing is on its way out. Sold out
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AGThis is now-casting nonsense. Any forward looking trader will get exactly Zero from these softball pre scripted CNN v 2.
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JDFYI. This is a awesome website for visualizing the underlying weakness in the stock market: http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-200d-sma-params-5y-x-x-x/
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DRHis S&P 2600 is a decent technical inflection point and it's above it. Will soon drop but that's a buy because stocks will indeed be supported above the lows and rise for 2019. Another major factor is the weak USD especially against EM which will support equities for both. The better trade is to long select emerging markets, or be long the spread between EM & SPY, like the smart money has been doing for 3-4 months and outperforming with double-digit positive returns. Stay that course.
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DBnot a single mention of credit markets or liquidity conditions
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JSHeadwinds smeadwinds. This market is not driven by PE ratios, tax loss/ gain selling, or fundamentals. It has been and continues to be a Fed driven market pure and simple. No disrespect to the interviewer/ interviewee.
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ARAnother great video with Brian P.. good to see the other side of the spectrum after so many bearish views. I believe Q418 and Q119 should be mixed especially in cyclicals such as industrials, materials & energy as tighter fed and trade war must have weighted on business. Major market lows tend to be re-tested at least once, which will set the base for a multi month bottoming phase, before we rally back towards Q3/Q4, if indeed as Art H pointed trade war turns into tailwind, and Fed pauses. Then in 2020, may be complete new story as end cycle will come knocking at the door again..
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SSMentioning John Bogle was a nice touch. RIP John Bogle
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EFGreat video, gave it a thumbs up even though I totally disagree with it. Very classy touch from both gentlemen re Jack Bogle. Lots of good points but Brexit etc. is not just going to go away. There is a lot of discontent that caused Trump, Brexit, Yellow Vests and until sane monetary policy is restored - with the initial disruption / reset that is very likely to cause - this just keeps building beneath the surface until it explodes. I think it has already started and what we’re seeing is a bear market rally.
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JMWell covered by Brian!
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DSGood practical discussion of the economic landscape and market. Sovereign, corporate and personal debt problems are major economic headwinds to me for a long time. Mr. Hogan addressed Italy, but RVTV has addressed the worldwide debt crisis and liquidity concerns in many videos. If other headwinds go well, keep some powder dry for approaching debt crisis. It will not go well. DLS
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ggGlad to see a rare practical and bullish view.
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JJThe trade idea need to me more tactical.
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SMAppreciate this video - whilst I enjoy the shorter term, more tactical trade ideas it's also nice to mix it up and get some perspective on the longer duration.
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TJAll credit to Art and Brian for praising John Bogle. RIP. Regardless of your view on indexation and I personally think it has gone much too far and is now a real potential market black swan, you have to credit Bogle's vision and genuine regard and consideration for the small average investor, a vocation I am pleased to see RV is trying to emulate. I also like Art's arguments for the bull case on equities in 2019.
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NONot sure Italy dissipates as easily as Brexit or China trade. Eurozone crisis looks a higher risk from a European perspective than an American one.
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nsOne point not discussed , in the event that the China trade situation normalizes , the Fed can get back to their previous more hawkish stance.