Michael Gayed, author of the Lead-Lag Report and portfolio manager of ATAC’s $ATACX mutual funds and their new ETF $RORO, has spent years developing robust systematic models to determine “risk-on” and “risk-off” tendencies in markets. While most managers are focused on delivering outperformance by finding the next big macro trade or growth company set to provide them with outsized returns, Gayed has been focused on figuring out how avoid drawdowns so that one can actually underperform in bull markets and still outperform in the long term. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Gayed will delve into the models he uses to avoid drawdowns, the historical evidence and back testing to support those models, and the larger issues surrounding why the obvious but often ignored idea that avoiding losses is the key to compounding is so hard to sell in a world focused on “what have you done for me lately?”