Greer: Markets Likely to Continue Higher Through End of Year
Your Real Vision Daily Briefing for September 15, 2020
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the latest in markets.
- Value is out the window but there are ample trade opportunities in this market and despite the tech shakeout, the uptrend is still intact.
- Concerns about the influx of retail traders are valid, but it’s wise to take it with a grain of salt and let price action tell us what is going to happen.
- Despite setbacks in oil, it is unlikely to get crushed—especially in a weaker dollar scenario and a scenario where the Fed is trying to inflate assets and commodities are inflating, too.
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We finally got a pullback in technology, and it was good to get a spike in volatility and see a little bit of a pullback to reality, Tony Greer told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing.
Greer said that the path won’t be linear, but he’s comfortable with posturing himself toward markets continuing higher through the rest of the year. In this market, he said, value is out the window, so he is looking for trade opportunities only and prefers to trade trends and momentum moves. His posture is to buy the dip because he thinks the uptrend is still intact. Greer also said he believes that tech will continue to rally and we’re only seeing an orderly pullback.
Greer also discussed the growing irrational forces that are driving markets, including the Fed inflating assets, the influx of retail traders, and the recent mania over options trading. His way of looking at that risk—what he called the “recipe to stay in this market”—is reminding himself that the Fed is inflating assets right now and those who hold assets will be rewarded.
While he admitted that the equity market has been turned into a trading ring by social media, Greer said he is not concerned about overzealous day traders and believes in taking it all with a grain of salt and letting price action tell him what is going to happen.
“I try to keep my macro world finite,” he said. “If you let in every story stock and story currency, you burn a lot of mental energy outside of your comfort zone. Why upset your comfort zone when that is such a big part of being a trader?”
Greer concluded the interview with this outlook on energy. He said he’s looking at energy as a barometer right now and trying to play oil on the long side. Oil may be facing the loss of demand growth, and recent headlines may have set oil back on its heels, but Greer doesn’t think oil will get crushed—especially in a weaker dollar scenario and scenario where the Fed is trying to inflate assets and commodities are inflating, too.
Greer said he’s confident that the commodity trade and inflation theme will follow through. It may not have the performance legs tech may have between now and the end of the year, and he’s concerned for oil stocks, but he still wants to trade the commodity itself.