Harrison: Most of the Risk is to the Downside in the Near Term

Your Real Vision Daily Briefing for June 15, 2020

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss a day of “risk on risk off” on Wall Street.

  • The stock market selloff last week appears to have been more technical than fundamental and we’re still seeing indications of the potential for a V-shaped recovery.
  • The California Public Employees’ Retirement System’s move into private equity and private debt to achieve a 7% return rate reflects a larger growth over value mindset in the market.
  • Right now, most of the risk is to the downside but the market is priced for the rosiest scenario; we’ll need several more weeks of data to determine the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery.

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Last week’s selloff wasn’t fundamental but technical, a byproduct of the fact that things were oversold, people were spooked, and there seemed to be reason to take profits, Ed Harrison told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing.

Harrison said the setback came on the heels of the reopening and is not necessarily an indication of what the longer term will hold. With energy, equities, the dollar, and to a degree, corporate bonds all moving in sync, he said there is still a bid for a V-shaped recovery.

Even Morgan Stanley restated the potential for a V-shaped recovery. The data suggests that we are still en route to that recovery if there are no hiccups going forward.

One entity that’s betting big on a V-shaped recovery is the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), whose move into private equity and private debt to achieve a 7% return rate is flirting with a lot of risk.

Harrison said that loading up on leverage to meet such an aggressive return target is a risky strategy that reflects a growth rather than value mindset. And Calpers is hardly alone in their thinking; sector rotation back into sectors that were leading before shows that people are looking for growth over value.

It’s too early to tell whether the V-shaped recovery will come to fruition. Harrison said that right now, the market is priced for the rosiest scenario but most of the risk is to the downside in the near to medium term. Because events play out over weeks and months and not days, he said we still need several more weeks of data before we can determine the effect of the reopening on recovery.