Harrison: There Is Only One Story – Europe

Your Real Vision Daily Briefing for July 21, 2020

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about how EU leaders have closed in on its landmark recovery deal.

  • EU leaders have closed in on a landmark recovery deal, but it may not turn out to be Europe’s “Hamilton moment.”
  • Merkel and Macron are working toward coordinated reflation via a federal European government, but Europe’s political structure falls short of true federalization.
  • The agreement is positive for the euro, positive for risk assets, and should take us into continued bullishness.

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Markets reacted positively to the news that the EU has reached a historic $2 trillion deal to rebuild its economy and there’s talk of this being Europe’s “Hamilton moment,” but political and structural realities may prevent it from ever being truly united, Ed Harrison told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing.

Harrison said that Merkel and Macron seem to be working toward coordinated reflation via a federal European government, but he doubts that the EU will ever get to full debt mutualization. He argued that the desire of the Frugal Four and Finland to receive rebates for their contributions conflicts with the concept of a truly federated model.

He also said he is skeptical because EU members are still distinct countries with distinct identities, languages, and cultures – and not all of their interests overlap.

If their efforts fail, he predicts that the EU will have a permanent sense of low growth and secular stagnation unless they solve the problem.

From a markets and economic perspective, this means slower growth, more debt in places like Italy, a debt crisis, and potentially an existential crisis in Europe, Harrison said. However, there will be a lot of money printing by the central bank, which could be bullish for asset prices.

“This is positive for the euro, positive for risk assets, and this should take us into continued bullishness,” he said. Harrison thinks we could see this lasting through summer then we’ll have to see what happens in the fall.