Hirst: Gold is Still a Great Opportunity

Your Real Vision Daily Briefing for October 15th, 2020

Managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst analyze a choppy day of global market action.

  • S. equity markets have been in a holding pattern since early September, but we’ll likely see a relief rally following the election.
  • Yield curve control will make the environment very hard to price and the safety valve for the inflation play will be precious metals.
  • Europe’s approach to stimulus has delayed insolvency for many companies and continues supporting jobs that may never be coming back, which is having a zombification effect.

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U.S. equity markets have been in a holding pattern since early September, Europe has been holding since June, and most other global markets are in bear market formations where the rallies have held and are going nowhere, Roger Hirst told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing.

Hirst said it’s common for markets to go sideways before an election and then have a relief rally no matter which side wins because there is finally more certainty. He thinks we’ll likely see this in the U.S., especially because both sides will do more fiscal going forward.

Hirst also shared his thoughts on the currency strength in Europe that followed their stimulus, and said it may be running out of steam. Given the second virus wave and the state of European banks, he believes the euro may pull back.

Turning his attention to the bond market, Hirst argued that central banks can’t let yields go too high, so being short bonds is not the right trade. They can’t let things get to the level on the 10-year that will blow things up, he said, so they will suppress yields and that will make the environment incredibly hard to price. He believes the safety valve for the inflation play will be precious metals and he remains bullish on gold.

Hirst concluded the interview with his thoughts about the U.S. and Europe’s differing approaches to stimulus. He said the U.S. will probably see higher levels of bankruptcy sooner than Europe, but because Europe is supporting jobs that are never coming back, they’re in a position of having to support them ad infinitum, which is contributing to the zombification of the European system.

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