Is the Reflation Trade Turning Now?

Keith Dicker, founder and chief investment officer of IceCap Asset Management, returns to Real Vision to explain why he disagrees with the “reflation” narrative that has buoyed commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Dicker argues that rising yields will draw capital into the U.S. from regions whose capital had not fully recovered from the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and was further impaired by the COVID-19 recession. Key learnings: Dicker sees signs that the reflation trade is grinding to a halt and argues that renewed strength in the U.S. dollar could emerge. He is constructive on dollar-denominated assets and thinks a melt-up in U.S. equities is possible. Dicker thinks emerging market currencies and commodity prices such as copper and oil could encounter weakness as global growth slows down.

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