A Low-Risk Short Bet

Published on: March 20th, 2019

Raoul decides that it’s the time to try to fade the rally in equities and make a very low-risk short bet…


  • VD
    Viknesh D.
    1 April 2019 @ 00:27
    Like the other recommendations in ‘it is time’ I don’t think that was the point to fade the rally, perhaps the 30 April deadline can save you this time if the decline from at leas 2870 has widening bars with high volume
  • TB
    Tim B.
    24 March 2019 @ 13:20
    So is the sort of set up where Monday sees a continued/accelerated decline? Thanks
  • AP
    Alistair P.
    23 March 2019 @ 21:22
    Hi Raoul, I am not so familiar with DeMark, but would like to learn. Is there a resource that you could recommend please? Thank you...
    • MC
      Mark C.
      24 March 2019 @ 07:13
      DeMark Indictors by Jason Perl. It's on Amazon.
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    24 March 2019 @ 06:37
    Does anyone else feel that the IWM weekly MACD (and other majors for that matter) need a few more flat/up weeks to create all the negative divergences to mark a true medium term top? I.e. I think there is a good chance that the top may come at the end of next month, and in the mean time these pullbacks are just to resolve the short term extremely overbought conditions. I am certainly bearish on cycle, but timing is always so tough argh....
  • RM
    R M.
    23 March 2019 @ 14:01
    Raoul: If you look at the dollar chart (DXY) it has really gone nowhere fast since early 2015. For it to really break one way or the other, it would seem it needs to head over 100 or below 90 to really make an impact (almost like it is being managed against other Fiat, yes?). Also, after Friday, one might get more aggressive on a short! Nice timing.
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    23 March 2019 @ 08:08
    The timing of this article might been right for now. Meantime the article greatly contradicts itself: 1) it says: "The entire pension fund industry, mutual funds and households are net sellers". how sure are you? Pension funds and Vanguards are buying, isn't it? 2) article says: "This chart illustrates that 2019 is expected the be the second-largest year for buybacks in history...USD 800 billion". Does it not say that equities are bound to be strong in 2019 with this massive buy back? 3) net selling is estimated at USD 400 million. Unless it is a mistypo error, we have 400 million selling versus 800 BILLION of buy back (purchase)? I am not equities bull here but the article rather suggest a bullish than bearish picture for 2019... ???
  • MS
    Mark S.
    22 March 2019 @ 21:43
    Hey Raoul, you posted this on twitter today in response to a question about 2/5 bonds (I presume steepener). "Just buy futures...easy and have plenty of leverage available, then use a wide stop loss for sizing." I don't understand what you mean or what the responder meant by 'strips'. Can you explain?
  • KA
    Kristian A.
    22 March 2019 @ 16:49
    So far so good
  • RT
    Richard T.
    21 March 2019 @ 02:16
    I think 400m should be 400bn in two places
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 March 2019 @ 15:48
      Correct. Sorry.
  • BG
    Benjamin G.
    21 March 2019 @ 16:03
    Raoul, The February 21st In Focus provided us with a couple themes to watch unfold, specifically GOOGL. I found this In Focus useful, but would also like to see you revisit things from the last In Focus. Perhaps how ideas are playing out or how your opinions have shifted.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 March 2019 @ 15:48
      For sure. Nothing has really changed for me...Im just waiting on timing and themes to develop. The big one is the dollar to break out and that will give the big signal for almost everything else.
  • BR
    Brian R.
    21 March 2019 @ 04:37
    1) It would be professional to mention the source where you claim pensions funds, mutual and bank of America's clients have all been selling... where do you get such info? 2) What do you mean by demographics are suggesting a net selling of $400m?
  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 March 2019 @ 01:59
    Raoul, I find it curious that you would limit your IV on the downside by selling a put. Why not go farther out in time to capture more vega buy only a put, and sell an upside call spread to help pay for it?
    • BR
      Brian R.
      21 March 2019 @ 04:32
      Yes, so long as you stop loss on that seagull @ 7points, based that with a risk reversal to see which is cheaper/better
  • LD
    Lance D.
    20 March 2019 @ 22:01
    if gold can strengthen more against lumber copper and have oil audjpy roll over with vix/vxn in that 6-7 range that would be sweet
    • BR
      Brian R.
      21 March 2019 @ 04:30
  • RK
    Robert K.
    20 March 2019 @ 22:11
    Nice. With you on this one.
  • JL
    J L.
    20 March 2019 @ 21:20
    cost up to 10 points on the close, in any case don't IWM/SPY options always have a smaller spread than the futures options?

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

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SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.