A Recap and other Thoughts…

Published on: April 21st, 2019

Raoul recaps some of his ideas and adds some new thoughts to help navigate the current markets…


  • BT
    Brian T.
    21 April 2019 @ 17:55
    With all due respect, Raoul was recommending short equities in December "It is Time" and not last summer when it was time to put them on. Telling us that he made a lot by putting on shorts last summer, but he was not recommending shorting then, is a bit of revisionist history. Fortunately I followed HFT into shorts and made good money. Julian's Netflix call was outstanding, as was Raoul's bond call. But the short equity call was wrong in December - that was the low!
    • SS
      Steve S.
      24 April 2019 @ 00:04
      The absolute low tick. Which is fine - it's ok to be wrong, but then don't tell us about something you were right about that you never mentioned at the time.
  • SD
    S D.
    21 April 2019 @ 21:59
    Thanks. I just think you're ignoring political risk as a factor in all of this. Look at what happened in Sri Lanka overnight. That was a complex and exceptional event. Not many people or groups can pull off something like that. Political risk is rising, globally. It feels to me like we're on the cusp of a major event, or series of events, which will overtake your analysis - or take it forward far more quickly than anticipated.
  • JL
    J L.
    21 April 2019 @ 23:56
    usual banter, by now it will be a miracle if anyone has made money on the aggregate of your calls, great macro views and insight into the future but if anyone dared to replicate a portfolio following your trades it wouldn't be pretty to put it mildly
  • VD
    Viknesh D.
    22 April 2019 @ 00:27
    This is the reason why I don’t agree the fundamentalist has the answers to the behaviour of the stock market. You can’t take a bag of fundamental charts to represent the composite consciousness of the indexes and then after paying thousands for a macro insider subscription have the writer of this article spanked by the stock indexes and have him tell us not to play equities. It’s not so much what he makes or does not make or losses, but I’ve noticed the writer of this article has missed massive massive opportunities by taking a strictly bearish view. His true return = return in bond market + opportunity cost of not being Long indexes for 4 months + cost of stop outs which turns the whole equation vastly negative.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      24 April 2019 @ 00:07
      Yes. I saw Raoul had a article up and few days ago & I avoided reading it. I'll read it now since I pay $, but I don't want to be unduly influenced by his bearish view. I'm sure it will be right at some point.
  • TB
    Thibault B.
    22 April 2019 @ 11:49
    Hindsight is 20/20 guys. Of course it sucks to have missed the index rally (note: who hasn't), but had you sized your portfolio accordingly between fixed income longs and equity shorts I'm pretty sure the future expected value of this portfolio would have been one of the best. In the current scenario you would still have made some money. Had disaster struck you would have made a lot, but would have been pasted in a portfolio heavily overweight equities. MI isn't about portfolio construction though, but market research. Having said that, more regular updates on trade recommendations would be welcome - 5 lines at the end of each release would suffice.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    22 April 2019 @ 16:20
    With all due respect and to my very limited understanding of the market, the holy grail of trading macro is not only about interpretation of the current data, but also the reasonable prediction of the future data, making bets on the difference from the expectation of others. So it would be great to see some detailed forecast of the data. For example, for your dollar bull case, you are talking about dollar shortage. Could you tell us what data you are using to gauge it, and how would they possibly change when you believe things evolve to your favor? If that happens, what would those countries possibly act on it?
  • AS
    Armando S.
    22 April 2019 @ 17:59
    A couple suggestions: 1. I'd really appreciate a table of all the trade recommendations w/ sample benchmark of p&l, wether it stopped out or is still open, etc. Vs 60/40 & HFRI Macro, for example. Often there is reference to past trades, but it's hard to keep track. Often trades were recommended, but not mentioned again if they didn't work out. Or some were just mentioned as things to think about, but then brought up as trades that worked. This feels like cherry picking. It's fine that there's been no alpha or even positive return since inception of this service (a short time span), but I'd like to be able to track the recommendations more easily. 2. On the flip side, if we're looking at this as just pure information to think about--we all get the Daily Shot, follow the markets & economic data and know consensus hedge fund positioning. Please focus more on what we don't know. Non-consensus views, possible surprises--things not already priced in. 3. I see indicators mentioned like DeMark showing "sell" all the time. These rarely seem to work, but perhaps we're missing context. Can we see a study/backtest with relevant metrics? This way we can tell if mentioned indicators are just temporarily in bad times (normal), or if they've never really worked well.
    • KJ
      Keith J.
      22 April 2019 @ 18:24
  • SR
    Steve R.
    22 April 2019 @ 23:25
    I think some of the previous comments are being rather unfair to Raoul. I personally made some very hefty profits on the bond trade and out of Eurodollar calls. But at the same time I wasn't in equities. Its just as important knowing in what to invest as knowing what not to invest in. If you have been in the bond trade and short equities trade then yes you may not have made much, if any money. But if you were in just the bond and eurodollar trades you would have made some hefty profits. I think people just need to spend more time doing their own research instead of expecting Raoul and Julian to deliver perfectly timed trades - that's not what MI is about. Yes, I know it takes a heck of a lot of time, but you only get out what you put in.
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      28 April 2019 @ 13:03
      I am with Steve on this one. I am heavily into bonds (US/Aus/Gilts/Bunds) on the back of Raoul's pieces and have just sat ou thte equity market. This has always been described as a difficult trade at present and as a sole trader I have the discretion to do so. Clearly they are not going to offer too many buy here/sell there tidbits but it is called Macro Insiders and not a stock letter.
    • BH
      Bin H.
      24 April 2019 @ 04:50
      I have a plausible feeling that when some suggestions are received, it is already kind of market consensus. I agree with previous comments that some trade suggestions are off, there are still several suggestions are reasonable to be fair. 1. The recent RUT put trade is a reasonable suggestion in terms of technical and fundamental, even it ends up being stopped out. One thing about this trade is he said it is a low risk trade, which I disagree. It is a large risk trade (counter trend) with large potential gain. 2. Aug 2018, the call for shorting AUDUSD. AUDUSD breaks the ranges. It could turn out to be a winning trade. I think it is a good call, but could definitely be earlier with fundamentals. Following are what I suggest, may be too greedy: 1. monitor every trade with following up 2. talk about market consensus and discuss why they are wrong 3. talk about time frame for the trade with estimated future fundamental data as side proof
    • SS
      Steve S.
      24 April 2019 @ 00:14
      To Keith on model portfolio - accountability.
    • KJ
      Keith J.
      23 April 2019 @ 05:59
      I agree with EF. To take a current example. If the dollar breaks up or down the credit could he taken because either possibility has been mentioned. Fine, that is unclear so no position needs to be taken but it is no good saying “I told you so” after the move has happened. There has been quite a lot of that of late which I think is why there are so many negative comments. The articles and discussions are super smart and interesting but something is missing. To be clear I’m not looking for trades to blindly follow, but I think, given the cost of the service, some kind of tracked model portfolio would be in order. There were more snap updates promised at various times but these never seem to materialise.
    • JL
      J L.
      23 April 2019 @ 04:57
      The bond bull case + beware of equities narrative we have been hearing since RV was created. Since 2014 yields are unchanged and SPX up 70pct. That is something to think about, 5 years is not early it's wrong. Wrt bonds the first batch of eurodollar calls expired worthless in Dec18 and the jury is still out on later expiries. TLT got badly stopped out at first and had a great run since November. If you managed the trades well I guess you are right you could have made a decent profit. The issue I have is credit taken on stuff that couldn't have possibly made anyone money like adding to MMYT at 38.5 as recommended in the original piece. I understand you need to size and set stops yourself no question about that, but if the stock goes from 39 to 34 and up to 60 bucks it will be used to market the service as genius once again come renewal time, while we all know everyone would have been stopped out in that situation. If it halves to 20 like it did it's swept under the carpet not to be talked about again (except one mention in Insider Talks to the tune of "oh well if they can't raise money it will be a zero" oh really?). The one that made me realize something is a bit off was a comment with bitcoin around 5k the likes of "hahaha we all knew where bitcoin was going" after a recommendation to sell at 2k on the way up. I don't mean to be too harsh but just sitting back and admitting some of them we got wrong is nothing to be ashamed of. If it is going to be just market commentary provided on here well then to justify the fees I feel you need at least a million bucks personally but would be curious to know what others think how much their yearly performance has been enhanced by the product?
  • VG
    Vivek G.
    23 April 2019 @ 11:07
    I followed Raoul’s conviction recommendations in Dec 2018 on buying XOM Puts and KRE: both of which positions lost me the premium paid. I am disappointed that there is no mechanism to feedback to readers on when to exit positions or a good sense on time horizons when taking such conviction calls as in Dec 2018. My two cents as a disappointed member of the service...
  • RM
    R M.
    23 April 2019 @ 15:12
    Been an RV and MI sub since the beginning, wanted to see what I could learn from these folks. I think Raoul and Julian are both very smart guys, and I have learned some useful things over time. But, and here always comes the but, I agree with a lot of the comments below. There is little accountability for recommendations, no published track record, no model portfolio. Ideas offered have been hit or miss. Not clear to me at least, if there is any real edge to be had here. Curious to see more comments from other subscribers.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    23 April 2019 @ 16:21
    I’m a MI subscriber for 6 months or so, and I look forward to each release. I believe it’s a great concept and I’ve gained some perspective from my time with the service. I also have to agree with the disappointed subscribers who feel let down by the trade ideas and seeming lack of accountability. It seems generally that the fellas try to own their misses, and I understand that their big money clients will get a head start on the research. However, the fact that Raoul’s equity shorts dated from August-ish and his ‘big boy pants’ letter was dated Dec 20 is too much to bear (so to speak). Please let me know if I’m off base with this criticism, because I’m beginning to feel suspicious. This feels like an important time for MI, and I’ll be watching this comments space every day for a while to learn what everyone else is thinking.
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    23 April 2019 @ 19:19
    I am a long time reader of MI. One of the things that contributes to reader frustration is differences in time horizon. I get the sense most readers expect trade ideas with specific entry and exit points whereas Raoul tends to give more broad based recommendations that might better be interpreted as long term themes than specific recommendations to enter or exit a position. I recall Raoul stating before that the advantage a retail investor has over Wall Street is time horizon. To fully capitalize on this advantage, I think it's necessary to do nothing from time to time. As an aside, while it is true that the price action of the S&P 500 in Q4 and Q1 could have been traded for tremendous gain, it's also true that the year over year picture does not look good and indeed I think 10 year and 30 year US bond returns have looked relatively good compared to the S&P over the past 15 months. I do agree with some of the comments about timing on trades, but I am personally not subscribing to MI for specific trade recommendations.
    • JW
      Joel W.
      24 April 2019 @ 04:38
      Thanks Minum.
  • VD
    Viknesh D.
    24 April 2019 @ 02:11
    I think Julian deserves some credit here. I remember in December, Julian said that Amazon could likely reach 1,900 which then tests the bull trap rally (not quoting word for word). I believe he mentioned into spring. Well it happened and the point I’m trying to make is that I don’t think the markets are at a wait and see juncture. There could be a change of character coming soon.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      24 April 2019 @ 15:27
      Yes. I have appreciated what Julian has to say and always read his thoughts. He does a great job of answering questions in response to this articles.
    • KJ
      Keith J.
      24 April 2019 @ 11:05
      Saying something might go to a certain price is easy. You can get that on CNBC, yahoo finance, etc. It's not even a recommendation, just conversation. It is fine for there to be some of that to build context, but at some point there needs to be a trade and it needs to be tracked as to how it goes IMO.
    • JL
      J L.
      24 April 2019 @ 06:58
      agreed but doesn't feel like a bull trap rally the way it is breaking higher out of the wedge with big bars
  • JK
    James K.
    24 April 2019 @ 15:37
    DXY last 97.84
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    24 April 2019 @ 16:50
    Raoul if dollar continues to break higher how does this change your view if at all about equities from here?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 April 2019 @ 20:19
      Lets the stock market do what it wants to do for a while. Im looking for a top but Im waiting. bonds and dollars is the focus.
  • TK
    Torbjorn K.
    24 April 2019 @ 20:51
    DXY passed 98 ;-)
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      25 April 2019 @ 23:12
      Lol, right, lets see if it holds. I opened up RV to see if there was any new commentary considering.
    • TK
      Torbjorn K.
      25 April 2019 @ 11:53
      WTI is rising also. Which one will have to give in first?