Are We Already in an Energy Crisis?

Published on: March 9th, 2022

We’re staring down the barrel of a serious gap in oil supply, notes Warren Pies, and that could translate into a worldwide recession. Pies, co-founder and strategist of investment research firm 3Fourteen, in conversation with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake, breaks down the broader consequences of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, offering granular assessments of energy markets and the supply chain. The bottom line, according to Pies, is that we’ll continue to see upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index. Pies also shares his insight into the consumer psychology behind inflation and explains how he’s balancing a barbell of tech and energy stocks. This report is a companion piece to Warren Pies’ interview with Maggie Lake on Essential:


  • JG
    Johan G.
    11 March 2022 @ 13:43
    Thanks for an interesting analysis. I just wonder if some of the historic correlations that the analysis use are now breaking down. The war in Ukraine will change historic supply lines semi permanently(next 5-10 years?), and all of that will impact prices through continued disruption of supply chains. I work in logistics and we see very big changes in the way goods are moved around the world. I would expect that to last through 2022, and this could give a 'second round' of inflationary impact with generally rising raw material prices. We also see continuous disruptions to production in China due to the zero covid policy, and we will see all of Europe demanding acceleration of investment in renewable energy and in arms. These are big drivers of demand for energy and raw materials. The energy return on investment (ERI) in renewable energy is three to four years, so an accelerated investment in this sector will increase demand for energy, which will have to be fossil fuels.