Bitcoin’s Logarithmic Growth

Published on: November 20th, 2020

Bitcoin today must appear as something of a quandary to the more cautious investor. Out of nowhere it has exploded onto the scene, and in the course of a decade has gone from strength to strength. And yet it seems so volatile as to defy any standard of valuation with which investors might feel they better understand it – they’re more often than not left wondering if it’s just a super speculative bubble, ‘all noise and fury signifying nothing’. Though no doubt it has certainly appeared to be that at times, and especially on the lengthy corrections, Dave the Wave (Twitter handle: @davthewave) will seek to outline a rational and real trend that underlies these appearances to the contrary.

Comments

  • DR
    Derrick R.
    23 November 2020 @ 18:31
    This is a much more developed version of what I’ve been thinking myself, however I do think that the wall of institutional money coming in the short term is going to launch the price a few decades ahead of where this model puts us.. does that make sense?
  • ZG
    Zeca G.
    23 November 2020 @ 17:54
    Dave's models are interesting but IMO it's TA and after years in the field I have a gut feeling me telling me things won't go that way at all. Dave's targets underestimate BTC and I've seen him miss a few targets along the way. But time will tell. Maybe it's a good counter-balance to S2F/S2FX - but BTC likes to surprise and I think it will once again surprise everyone by not following this model.
  • DH
    Daniel H.
    23 November 2020 @ 11:48
    I do agree that there will be a flattening of the curve, especially, as we come closer to mining the last BTC, however, Dave's analysis BTC price tops out around approx $1 mill/BTC which would give BTC a total cap of approx $21 trillion. If the belief is that the future of Finance is to be built on top of BTC (and also ETH and others) $21 trillion is too low of a number especially not including the rapid rise debt -- global debt is approximately at $253 trillion (IIF Debt Monitor). If ETH tracks at a similar growth rate to BTC (maybe it'll explode higher...who knows) at $1 mill/BTC then ETH would be approximately $195,000/ETH, which would give ETH a cap of approx $3 trillion.....$3 trillion cap of ETH + $21 trillion cap of BTC = $24 trillion net cap (not including the minor cryptos). $24 trillion of the top 2x coins by cap doesn't seem like a revolution in finance. It's a bit anecdotal but this is why I think Dave's calculations are severely underestimating future price movements -- his models have no room for "gamma", where S2FX has "gamma" jumps.
  • TA
    Truitt A.
    22 November 2020 @ 04:02
    Dave performs excellent analysis. Highly recommend his work and his alts page, which he references at the end of the report.