Blowing the Doors Off

Published on: February 12th, 2021

Inflation was sticky to the downside and is now rising. Fiscal policy will be even more expansionary than many believe. Monetary policy is intent on financial repression, boiling the bond frogs ever so slowly. Nominal GDP will explode to the upside once the post-Covid re-opening starts in earnest. All pro-cyclical and a heady cocktail. Julian asks… what to do?

Comments

  • GP
    Greg P.
    21 February 2021 @ 21:09
    Hi Julian, As Platinum is prone to sharp reversals, what would you consider a worth while entry if you haven't entered into the position already? Any thoughts?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 February 2021 @ 13:45
      Platinum is in the Portfolio, with an entry and stop of 1035, as of Dec 4th.
    • GP
      Greg P.
      22 February 2021 @ 16:14
      Thanks Harry. I didn't take the entry at 1035 - I've only just signed up. I wondered if there was still a chance to enter at this stage, and if so, any guidelines as to a valid entry?
  • GP
    Greg P.
    21 February 2021 @ 21:28
    Hi Julian, A question on your second tranch on the FTSE / GBPUSD. Do you happen, on GBP/USD with your buy recommendation at 1.37, have a target and stop-loss in mind on this pair? Thanks.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 February 2021 @ 13:43
      Greg there should be a stop and Im not sure why it isnt listed. 6250.
  • NO
    Neil O.
    15 February 2021 @ 12:17
    Hi Julian, won't a lot of the savings among US households that you highlight as a source of spending have to go to pay rent and mortgages that have been suspended during the pandemic? If so, how much of a dampener on your reflation/inflation view will that have?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 February 2021 @ 14:04
      Hi Neil. Great question. Piping up for Julian on this. I would argue that the bottom line is that while there will be a lot of consumers who are cash constrained and have been financially damaged by Covid, there will be a whole bunch more who have been saving like crazy and a desperate to blow it on travel and restaurants. We can see this most simply in the unemployment numbers. At its peak there were 30mn new unemployed. A terrible macro event. Tragic. But that also means there were 120mn or so whose employment was unaffected and who continued to be paid and accumulate savings. The net savings numbers are objective. A lot of those people will not spend all that they saved recently. But there is definitely going to be pent up spending. We also have the example of the 1918 pandemic to go by. Not that we like to go by economists views, but on this there is great uniformity of opinion. But most of all, past experience for me is that its very easy to overestimate the importance of those who have been economically hurt relative to those who were not. But those who are unemployed have a much diminished impact on the economy. Their spending drops and they sort of disappear. To a great degree we can already see the impact of their reduced spending. Its those who can spend who have yet to make their economic preferences observable, simply because of restrictions in the spending they can do.
    • NO
      Neil O.
      16 February 2021 @ 14:10
      Hi Harry, thanks for your response. I guess the "k" shaped recovery becomes a "K" shaped one in that case.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    14 February 2021 @ 19:09
    Hi Julian, why are you bullish on hydrogen cell? here's a comment from some one (cathie wood) who seems to have researched this extensively: https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/jhbj8v/cathie_wood_ark_interview_with_barrons/ basically, she claims it's much more expensive to run than an electric vehicle, and also not as convenient as you can't charge your car at home with hydrogen cell based car.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 February 2021 @ 13:55
      JB has a piece coming on this (A Deep Dive). He doesnt disagree with Cathie Wood at all, but thats not the same as being bearish about all hydrogen investment plays. Fuel Cells have some applications for which they perform better than batteries. But rather than pre-empt the piece, I will just say that I know there is a piece coming on this in the next month (or month after).
  • DW
    Dennis W.
    13 February 2021 @ 20:19
    No new trades but I feel much more situated after reading this.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 February 2021 @ 13:52
      Glad to hear. Julian is very concerned about the environment (lots of reasons for concern about excess speculation) but its just too early to call a bear.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    12 February 2021 @ 19:48
    Julian, many thanks. Are you able to explain what data you monitor that might make you short equities? you've shown patience not to pull the trigger already?
    • RK
      Roger K.
      14 February 2021 @ 23:25
      My understanding is; If the US10Y hits 1.9% ( which is more than 50bps of S&P dividends) then high flying stonks ( P/E 40 ) will have to halve and halve again to to match the US10Y...
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 February 2021 @ 13:51
      Roger makes a good point. Similarly we might see a change in trend if something happens with the dollar. But there is no point jumping the gun in anticipating an equity sell off. Doing so can be incredibly expensive. Rather, JB's advice is to keep moving stops up, and make sure you have nothing which might be tricky to get rid of if markets change direction.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    14 February 2021 @ 23:29
    Very pragmatic piece! in the dream world all around you. Thank you...
  • RG
    Rob G.
    14 February 2021 @ 08:39
    great piece

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Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

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Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

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Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

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Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

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TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

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Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

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Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

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What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

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22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

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Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

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Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

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