Raoul, have you looked at the spec money positioning in the eurodollar hedger position? Spec money got aggressive at the cycle peak last year but now they have unwound that position and are net short. While I agree that a rate cute looks likely this year do you think this spec money is correct to be leaning on the side of a more hawkish fed? Spec money positioning went from 4.7M summer of 2018 to -136k net short as of last Tuesday. Curious what you make of their positioning in the eurodollar market and what spec money may be positioning for?

Following up on your twitter remark - low vol and high forwards allows you do do some really leveraged (10x1) long-dated option trades on certain USD pairs.

No options market to speak of in SHY. TD doesn't off Eurodollar options. Time to move to IB I think!

Good afternoon Raoul, What is your thinking on January 2020 outs on FXY? Still looking for a jubilee? Thank you if you have time to respond.

Hi Raoul thanks for being very specific and giving lots of options for the less experienced. To be clear on the interest rate instruments you are referring to the spread of the GE Dec 16 '19 98/98.5 call? Not the GE0, GE2 etc that expire on Dec 13? thanks in advance

i am in individual who is not familiar with call spreads. Would you kindly walk me through EXACTLY how I would execute a December 2019 call spread?

Finally you had the balls to make a clear call on the USD... the best pair to steal like a bandit is long USD/MXN. Highest liquidity in em fx, proxy for volatility.

How about USDTRY, USDZAR? What's your view on these two Raoul?

Super strong $ has never helped reduce deficits, quite the opposite. Make it twin deficits and history favors a weaker currency. That aside, if a real trade war breaks out, not just these silly tariffs, we are looking at a deflationary global recession. Sharply lower trade flows means sharply lower demand for dollars. The rally would have to come from financial flows. What I think is missed is that the US has sucked in trillions of dollars in investment, and the source of these funds are offshore dollar liabilities. That is to say the run up in US asset prices is substantially a function of offshore dollar liabilities looking for assets, and USD bonds and equities have been on the receiving end because the US is the least worst option. If we do get a global recession, the dollar would spike before it crashes as all of this unwinds. In most cases recessions have kicked off major downward corrections for the dollar. The current level for DXY anyway is around 15 year highs.

Hi Raoul, I'm mostly an options seller type of trader, playing short-term vol crush with delta neutral strategies. But I'm really tempted to try your recommendation with this long call vertical spread on /GEZ9 options expiring Dec 16, 2019. Questions: 1) In absolute terms IV is very low compared to other options I trade. But the trading platform I use shows that IV for /GE is in the upper half percentile range. So don't know if I'm missing something... 2) How do you predict this will play? What confirmation should we expect to keep this trade?

Hi Raoul - is buying the Futures - Eurodollar Dec 2019 - Spot basis likely to be equally effective? - would you clearly advocate doing the same for Dec 2020 and 2021? - how does one ascertain the quantum of investment in a risk Adjusted basis for the Dec 2019 recommended Eurodollar Trade? - could you explain how you arrived at the 16X on the Dec 2019 Eurodollar Call Spread recommendation Regards

Hi Rauol, great piece. Being a "newbie Marco Investor" I need to keep things as simple as possible and my capital in play is small. In terms of the BOND play- is buying the TLT still a potential trade? (or is it too much at the long-end of the curve). And in terms of the $- is being long the DXY a possible trade? (I can buy the DXY via Spread-Betting- meaning that I have no currency risk- it basically tracks the rise or fall the DXY per se)

Raoul Can you recommend a commodities broker that you use or may suggest to use. Thank you

Raoul the Eurodollar Optix is at 100 and hedgers are net short for the first time since 10/2015. The endogenous market structure looks suboptimal. Are you waiting for a pullback to size up or just adding to existing position right here

Hi Raoul About HKD, Kyle Bass has commented many time how reserve has going down and you mention in this report again. But from what I see from Bloomberg, FX's reserves are near all time high at 1x GDP and with a positive current account seems unlike to break down. Can you comment on that ?

Thanks Raoul. This is well thought out. I appreciate your recommendations and comments to some people's questions.

Hi. What does it mean to buy the call spreads for three ticks?

Hi Raoul, Are you recommending 2s/10's steepener trade for your GMI clients? Will there be a time to back up the truck on 10 year treasuries again?

Hi Raoul I shorted oil via uso/long sco around 63 bbl on your dollar strength idea. I know youve been an energy and oil bear for a while, do you have a target in mind that you see crude heading to?

Raoul, Thanks a lot for your reply previously. On the other hand, is Yen a better option over dollar? And What is your view on Gold?

Thanks Raoul. Eurodollars made a huge move today. Got into GE calls yesterday. Good trade so far.

Why is JPY considered a safe haven currency when global market sell off? thanks far all replies in advance. I don’t get it since they have negative rates.

Raoul, would you still suggest adding to GE calls 2020, 2021? i have a small position in the money now. Wonder if you would still recommend add up some more Eurodollars now after the rates had fallen from Nov 2018 and are much lower already. Thanks for your view

I've just got an account to trade eurodollar futures and will be able to make trades within a week. It feels like I've missed the train. Do you still recommend this actual setup or do you think another trade like March 2020 is better?

This trade knocked it out of the park. Mice setup

USD/DXY getting bit of a timeout at the moment - what's people's thoughts on sitting out of dollar bets until after the June meeting?