Cautiously Bearish Oil & Expecting Deflation

Published on: February 2nd, 2021

Paul Hodges and his team at New Normal Consulting have updated their confidence on calls for lower oil prices and a deflation surprise in 2021. In addition to updating confidence on those contrarian calls, they make the case for mean reversion in broader equities and the high-flying FAANG names. You can learn more about New Normal Insight here:


  • JS
    John S.
    2 February 2021 @ 20:38
    What does cautiously bearish mean?
  • CM
    Charl M.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:26
    hasn't the Graham Value methodology called the Tech giants "overvalued" for most of the last 20 years? Amazon on Tuesday posted a record $125.6 billion in sales for the fourth quarter (that's $58 million per hour!), while profits more than doubled to $7.2 billion from a year earlier. It was the first time the company had exceeded $100 billion in sales in a single quarter. Yet value investors reckon Amazon is worth $290/share, or less than 10% of its current $3380/share? The Graham Value of $7/share for Tesla is an even bigger joke. Tesla is far more than a maker of electric vehicles. Maybe Real Vision should get Cathie Wood on again.
    • JS
      John S.
      3 February 2021 @ 16:25
      Cathie is great antagonist idea I think Catherine and Raoul face to face could be huge!
  • PZ
    Penghao Z.
    25 February 2021 @ 10:42
    He is obviously proven to be wrong....
  • CH
    Chris H.
    28 February 2021 @ 06:00
    I appreciated Paul's Live interview, but disagree with his thesis as I think it's too focused on the N. Atlantic basin + China. I believe he's ignoring the rising middle class outside the OECD + China and the likely use of traditional fuels for to meet that demand. He may also underestimate the damage done to supply chains and project ecosystems in the IOCs and N. American independents, so the global supply of oil may be lower and more expensive to develop than expected.