Commodity Report – Climate Cycle Synchronicity

Published on: October 13th, 2020

To supplement his Real Vision Live interview at 12PM ET on October 14th, Shawn Hackett has provided Real Vision Plus and Pro members with his most recent write up on how naturally occurring solar cycles affect climate and thus agricultural outputs and commodity prices. We look forward to quarterly written updates from Shawn on his outlook for agricultural commodities.

Comments

  • SP
    Seahyung P.
    18 October 2020 @ 07:04
    As a practising scientist, I follow a simple rule of thumb: If you are publishing something as a piece of scientific literature, then publish it in a peer-reviewed journal. If not publishing something a piece of scientific literature but you want to at least claim that your assertions are backed by scientific literature, then cite peer-reviewed journal articles. If you do neither of the following, I will accept that this is all simply your opinion, which are you are more than entitled to; but nothing more. You may make money on your investing thesis, and I hope you do; all the best of luck to you. But winning money by betting on red at the roulette table because my tarot cards told me to, still doesn't prove that tarot cards have any scientific validity.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      19 October 2020 @ 11:59
      Would love to discuss with you further and go over the strong body of scientific rigor that our conclusions come from. Thank for your comments and look forward to hearing from you to further the scientific process.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      19 October 2020 @ 17:04
      Hi, thank you for the response. Just to pick a very specific example, could you explain this sentence?: "When La Nina gets triggered from the forces out in space, an upwelling of cold water displaces the warm surface water that preceded it with an El Nino." It has been a while since I studied earth science but I was not aware that La Nina was triggered by forces out in space. Do you have a particular citation or series of papers that discusses this idea in detail?
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      19 October 2020 @ 20:50
      yes we do. That is how we predicted this La Nina would take place at this time and last into 2022 in a report we put out 3 years ago. It is is all cyclical based upon the spot in the 12 year solar cycle and whose voracity gets modulated by the 3rd harmonics of the planetary force influences. It is also the causal influence on the longer term basis for the 40 year PDO/AMO sea surface temperature cycle that leads global temperatures in a 40 year upward and downward trend. That 40 year cycle is completing here in 2020 and will end the 40 year sea surface temperature warming phase that has caused the overall period of warming of global temperatures over that same time frame as would be predicted. The next phase is the 40 year cooling of these oceans and the same for global temperatures. The added cooling force this time around that was not in existence during the last global temperature cooling cycle from 1940 to 1980 is that we are now in a Grande Solar Cycle minimum cooling phase with very cooling forces form the planetary orientations the likes we have not seen since the early 1600's when we entered the Maunder minimum which was one of the most destabilizing cold and volatile weather periods over the last 1000 years. Earth lives in space and we know from the very simple example of the moons influence on our ocean tides that our atmosphere and climate are greatly impacted by such solar system forces. Everything is connected and everything is always changing which is why climate is always changing and never stable. All humans can do is adapt. I truly appreciate your interest. Thank you so much.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      20 October 2020 @ 09:15
      Thank you for the second response. I am very sorry, but a lot of what you said has come off to me as word salad, as many things you are saying dont make sense and have raised more questions than answered. I admit that this might be because I am not an expert in astrophysics, but I do know enough to be able to understand a peer reviewed scientific paper on astrophysics. What is solar voracity ? How is voracity measured? What is the equation? I have never learned this before in astrophysics. What are harmonics of planetory forces? Do you mean resonant frequencies? Are you implying that planetary vibrations can cause changes in solar activity? Again, I have never learned this before in astrophysics. Again, could you provide a citation or links to scientifically peer-reviewed journal articles, or maybe articles from respectable institutions such as NOAA or NASA that state clearly why "La Nina gets triggered from the forces out in space"
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      20 October 2020 @ 10:20
      Absolutely will. Please email me and I would be glad to forward some papers for your review in this topic.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      20 October 2020 @ 11:04
      Just sent an email, will wait for a reply. Thank you for taking the time to reply here; much appreciated.
    • LL
      Leiland L.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:57
      Hey Seahyung, when you get a chance can you throw together a small response on the comments for us to see? Regardless I am getting into some Ag firms, but I'd like to know if you uncover any reasoning that is not just depanandt on past correlations. Not that those aren't important, but I'm curious how these solar alignments or sun spots affect weather. My take away fromt his is just increased gravitational pull and EM distruptions, but I am incredibly far from being a scientest.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:00
      The only thing I really wanted to ask was what evidence there was to conclusively show that " La Nina gets triggered from the forces out in space". Although there are other things I could have picked, I thought sticking to just one topic and staying focused on it, rather than throw a barrage of questions here-and-there, would be more polite and helpful. Shawns answer said here: "It is is all cyclical based upon the spot in the 12 year solar cycle and whose voracity gets modulated by the 3rd harmonics of the planetary force influences." What I didn't understand about this was that I have never heard of "Solar Cycle Voracity", or "3rd harmonics of planetory forces". Although I am a practising scientist ( albeit I am not a practising astrophysicist/climate scientists) I have learned enough astrophysics to be able to read a peer-reviewed astrophysics journal article; before but have never heard those terms before ("Solar Cycle Voracity", or "3rd harmonics of planetory forces") and wanted to know how they were defined, what is their equation and how are they measured. After going back and forth on email, Shawn kindly cleared up one point by stating that : "Voracity is just my term for enhanced solar impact or lack there of." However, the articles he has provided so far have only shown correlations between certain aspects of the suns magnetic cycle and La Nina, meaning that the studies have not shown any causal mechanism and their evidence suggests that studying the suns magnetic cycle on La Nina is something that warrants future study but they cannot conclusively show that La Nina is triggered by the suns magnetic cycle. That does not necessarily mean that La Nina ISN'T triggered by the suns magnetic cycle, but only that so far, we can see a correlation between the two, (Around 75% of La Nina's can be predicted by just looking at the suns magnetic cycle in one of the papers he sent me) but without a causal mechanistic explanation as to why that might be. Correlation does not equal causation, so it is a field that still needs to be studied. My personal understanding is that the solar cycle may have some influence on La Nina, but might not be the only factor, since not all La Ninas can be accurately predicted by the solar magnetic cycle. Shawn was also kind enough to share an article explaining what "harmonics" are. Harmonics in this case is just integer multiples of the natural frequency of something, But the paper was referring to sun cycle harmonicss (In which case, the 3rd harmonic is simply 3.6 Year cycles, because the suns magnetic cycle is roughly around 11 years, 11 divided by 3 gives your 3.6). However, this is referring to the sun cycles harmonic not "3rd harmonics of planetory forces", thus I have asked him again what 3rd harmonics of planetory forces" refers to (Since as you know, the Sun is not a planet). I am currently waiting for his reply on this matter.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:02
      Please note, none of this has any bearing on what I think of his investment thesis from a purely financial/investing point of view. Shawn may very well be right that agricultural prices will go up; but I am just wondering as to whether the rationale/ argument he makes stands scientific scrutiny or not.
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    23 October 2020 @ 19:11
    Shawn your report was fascinating, I really enjoyed reading it, it has given me so much to think about, consider and research. Thanks for the work I look forward to anything you share here at RV in the future!
  • HC
    Hakan C.
    15 October 2020 @ 18:15
    I can not believe that RV went ahead and put this report out. So many claims made with no proof.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      15 October 2020 @ 19:39
      This is a summary of our conclusions from our extensive research on the climate cycles we have found that can be highly correlated to weather patterns throughout history. Orbital forcing of climate has been thoroughly researched by scientists for centuries to electric, magnetic, gravimetric and torsional forces that are acting on our planets atmosphere. These forces can be measured and defined to produce verification. The lower sunspot activity is clearly being seen as is the increase in cosmic rays hitting the earth along with the clear shift in the jet stream from zonal to meridional jet stream that has been the basis for the aberrant and unusual weather volatility just to name a few of the changes that have been seen in past grand solar cycles. Would love to speak with you about this further so that you can have a better appreciation of this thesis. Thank you so much for reaching out to me.
  • JK
    John K.
    13 October 2020 @ 20:07
    I’m disappointed that real vision is supporting this climate change denying esoteric bullshit. Lol this reads like an Allan watts transcript.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      13 October 2020 @ 20:36
      Would love for you to provide the rational for your point of view and have a fair discussion about this based upon data and predictive weather modeling value. Thank you for reaching out and sharing. Shawn
    • BW
      Bradley W.
      13 October 2020 @ 21:56
      @John K The report literally advocates for severe climate change over the next 15 years and I don't see anywhere that it suggests that human caused environmental pollution is not a problem. It doesn't mean ill take the trades but Its silly to think that larger climate cycles don't exist or are not relevant. You can look up NASA articles on solar cycles and their minimum and maximums.
    • DM
      Dominic M.
      14 October 2020 @ 21:09
      Yeah I stopped reading at: "There is nothing happening today with weather that has not already happened in the past a multitude of times." The majority of the world's scientist disagree. @Bradely Let's hope the report doesn't "literally advocate for severe climate change over the next 15 years." @Shawn While we're at it, let's have a totally balanced, two-sided discussion on whether the earth is flat or round. This is the lowest-quality report I've ever seen from RV.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      15 October 2020 @ 07:03
      Hi Dominic thank you for sharing. Would Be glad to discuss this with you further on how the current weather patterns Have been seen in the past and were much more severe in many instances. So give me a call so we can have that 2-sided discussion you are wanting. It would be great to see the rational for your views and to see the extensive research you have done to make those conclusions you have made in your response. This is what the scientific process is all about. Look forward to hearing from you. Have a super day.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    14 October 2020 @ 20:26
    This report is really eye-opening, even for me who has dedicated a relatively long time in physics. Would anyone share some scientific papers that provide evidence for this argument?
    • BH
      Bin H.
      15 October 2020 @ 06:40
      After reading a few papers, I think it is not only interesting but useful!
  • JW
    Jay W.
    15 October 2020 @ 03:38
    Really interesting.
  • RM
    Rando M.
    14 October 2020 @ 22:03
    Shawn, could you please clarify the following. On page seven you say "4-Years later an epic drought occurred in the US in 1845. Please see the news article on the next page." But the article on page eight ends with "... this year of our Lord 1908 has not been so bad after all."
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 23:59
      They were referencing that the Current drought in 1908 was. Nowhere near as bad as the one prior
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    14 October 2020 @ 19:05
    Fascinating. Thank you.
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    14 October 2020 @ 04:00
    Thanks for sharing this! Would be interesting to complement it with an interview on RV
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      14 October 2020 @ 18:07
      Absolutely
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    14 October 2020 @ 15:53
    Wow. Never seen anything like this. Looks like I have some more reading to do
  • dg
    daniel g.
    14 October 2020 @ 14:24
    "Attempts have been made to explain 20th century global warming exclusively by the component of irradiance variation associated with the Gleissberg cycle. These attempts fail, because they require unacceptably great solar forcing and are incompatible with the paleoclimatic records" -- Journal of Geophysical Research, Jan 2003. Overall, Hackett seems to lack the mathematical rigor needed to prove any of his hypotheses. Some planetary motions (venus, jupiter) are well accepted to have a degree of correlation with global temperature. Yet Hackett proposes other planetary motions (uranus, neptune) to be correlated with global temperature, this correlation is entirely unknown to science, or directly disproven. Does Hackett suggest he has proven correlations new to science? If so where is the math to prove it ? I suggest he has instead simply cherry-picked ideas from old scientific news, since disproven, and lacks the rigor to understand how to prove or disprove anything at all. What are his sources? Where is his math?
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 15:38
      Thank you for reaching out. Would love to discuss further with you. Contact me anytime at your leisure. This is what the scientific process is all about and I commend you. Have a super day.
  • BL
    Benoit L.
    14 October 2020 @ 07:36
    If Shawn's thesis plays out, it will be music to the ears of farmers in Australia. After years of horrendous droughts, they will be looking a bumper crops combined with higher prices. Already, the 2020 East Australian winter crops are looking best in many years with a La Nina forecast by Australia's BOM. In any event, we will know fairly shortly if the technical analysis presented here is worth considering.
  • RC
    Rafael C.
    14 October 2020 @ 02:18
    Great piece with well-supported hypotheses. Not the first time I hear about this. It is a daunting scenario particularly for a guy like me that hates cold temperatures. It would be great to know Shawn's point of view regarding the best way to play this theme: commodities futures, producers, ag tech companies.
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    13 October 2020 @ 22:43
    For those interested - US Drought Map updated every Thursday. I've watched this for many years and this is about the most extensive I've seen it - and it is spreading. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
  • PM
    Parth M.
    13 October 2020 @ 22:23
    Thanks RV, loved it.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.