Commodity Report – Climate Cycle Synchronicity

Published on: October 13th, 2020

To supplement his Real Vision Live interview at 12PM ET on October 14th, Shawn Hackett has provided Real Vision Plus and Pro members with his most recent write up on how naturally occurring solar cycles affect climate and thus agricultural outputs and commodity prices. We look forward to quarterly written updates from Shawn on his outlook for agricultural commodities.


  • JK
    John K.
    13 October 2020 @ 20:07
    I’m disappointed that real vision is supporting this climate change denying esoteric bullshit. Lol this reads like an Allan watts transcript.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      15 October 2020 @ 07:03
      Hi Dominic thank you for sharing. Would Be glad to discuss this with you further on how the current weather patterns Have been seen in the past and were much more severe in many instances. So give me a call so we can have that 2-sided discussion you are wanting. It would be great to see the rational for your views and to see the extensive research you have done to make those conclusions you have made in your response. This is what the scientific process is all about. Look forward to hearing from you. Have a super day.
    • DL
      Dominic L.
      14 October 2020 @ 21:09
      Yeah I stopped reading at: "There is nothing happening today with weather that has not already happened in the past a multitude of times." The majority of the world's scientist disagree. @Bradely Let's hope the report doesn't "literally advocate for severe climate change over the next 15 years." @Shawn While we're at it, let's have a totally balanced, two-sided discussion on whether the earth is flat or round. This is the lowest-quality report I've ever seen from RV.
    • BW
      Bradley W.
      13 October 2020 @ 21:56
      @John K The report literally advocates for severe climate change over the next 15 years and I don't see anywhere that it suggests that human caused environmental pollution is not a problem. It doesn't mean ill take the trades but Its silly to think that larger climate cycles don't exist or are not relevant. You can look up NASA articles on solar cycles and their minimum and maximums.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      13 October 2020 @ 20:36
      Would love for you to provide the rational for your point of view and have a fair discussion about this based upon data and predictive weather modeling value. Thank you for reaching out and sharing. Shawn
  • PM
    Parth M.
    13 October 2020 @ 22:23
    Thanks RV, loved it.
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    13 October 2020 @ 22:43
    For those interested - US Drought Map updated every Thursday. I've watched this for many years and this is about the most extensive I've seen it - and it is spreading.
  • RC
    Rafael C.
    14 October 2020 @ 02:18
    Great piece with well-supported hypotheses. Not the first time I hear about this. It is a daunting scenario particularly for a guy like me that hates cold temperatures. It would be great to know Shawn's point of view regarding the best way to play this theme: commodities futures, producers, ag tech companies.
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    14 October 2020 @ 04:00
    Thanks for sharing this! Would be interesting to complement it with an interview on RV
    • JR
      Jack R.
      14 October 2020 @ 18:07
  • BL
    Benoit L.
    14 October 2020 @ 07:36
    If Shawn's thesis plays out, it will be music to the ears of farmers in Australia. After years of horrendous droughts, they will be looking a bumper crops combined with higher prices. Already, the 2020 East Australian winter crops are looking best in many years with a La Nina forecast by Australia's BOM. In any event, we will know fairly shortly if the technical analysis presented here is worth considering.
  • dg
    daniel g.
    14 October 2020 @ 14:24
    "Attempts have been made to explain 20th century global warming exclusively by the component of irradiance variation associated with the Gleissberg cycle. These attempts fail, because they require unacceptably great solar forcing and are incompatible with the paleoclimatic records" -- Journal of Geophysical Research, Jan 2003. Overall, Hackett seems to lack the mathematical rigor needed to prove any of his hypotheses. Some planetary motions (venus, jupiter) are well accepted to have a degree of correlation with global temperature. Yet Hackett proposes other planetary motions (uranus, neptune) to be correlated with global temperature, this correlation is entirely unknown to science, or directly disproven. Does Hackett suggest he has proven correlations new to science? If so where is the math to prove it ? I suggest he has instead simply cherry-picked ideas from old scientific news, since disproven, and lacks the rigor to understand how to prove or disprove anything at all. What are his sources? Where is his math?
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 15:38
      Thank you for reaching out. Would love to discuss further with you. Contact me anytime at your leisure. This is what the scientific process is all about and I commend you. Have a super day.
  • JR
    Jack R.
    14 October 2020 @ 15:53
    Wow. Never seen anything like this. Looks like I have some more reading to do
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    14 October 2020 @ 19:05
    Fascinating. Thank you.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    14 October 2020 @ 20:26
    This report is really eye-opening, even for me who has dedicated a relatively long time in physics. Would anyone share some scientific papers that provide evidence for this argument?
    • BH
      Bin H.
      15 October 2020 @ 06:40
      After reading a few papers, I think it is not only interesting but useful!
  • RM
    Rando M.
    14 October 2020 @ 22:03
    Shawn, could you please clarify the following. On page seven you say "4-Years later an epic drought occurred in the US in 1845. Please see the news article on the next page." But the article on page eight ends with "... this year of our Lord 1908 has not been so bad after all."
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 23:59
      They were referencing that the Current drought in 1908 was. Nowhere near as bad as the one prior
  • JW
    Jay W.
    15 October 2020 @ 03:38
    Really interesting.
  • HC
    Hakan C.
    15 October 2020 @ 18:15
    I can not believe that RV went ahead and put this report out. So many claims made with no proof.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      15 October 2020 @ 19:39
      This is a summary of our conclusions from our extensive research on the climate cycles we have found that can be highly correlated to weather patterns throughout history. Orbital forcing of climate has been thoroughly researched by scientists for centuries to electric, magnetic, gravimetric and torsional forces that are acting on our planets atmosphere. These forces can be measured and defined to produce verification. The lower sunspot activity is clearly being seen as is the increase in cosmic rays hitting the earth along with the clear shift in the jet stream from zonal to meridional jet stream that has been the basis for the aberrant and unusual weather volatility just to name a few of the changes that have been seen in past grand solar cycles. Would love to speak with you about this further so that you can have a better appreciation of this thesis. Thank you so much for reaching out to me.
  • SP
    Seahyung P.
    18 October 2020 @ 07:04
    As a practising scientist, I follow a simple rule of thumb: If you are publishing something as a piece of scientific literature, then publish it in a peer-reviewed journal. If not publishing something a piece of scientific literature but you want to at least claim that your assertions are backed by scientific literature, then cite peer-reviewed journal articles. If you do neither of the following, I will accept that this is all simply your opinion, which are you are more than entitled to; but nothing more. You may make money on your investing thesis, and I hope you do; all the best of luck to you. But winning money by betting on red at the roulette table because my tarot cards told me to, still doesn't prove that tarot cards have any scientific validity.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:02
      Please note, none of this has any bearing on what I think of his investment thesis from a purely financial/investing point of view. Shawn may very well be right that agricultural prices will go up; but I am just wondering as to whether the rationale/ argument he makes stands scientific scrutiny or not.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:00
      The only thing I really wanted to ask was what evidence there was to conclusively show that " La Nina gets triggered from the forces out in space". Although there are other things I could have picked, I thought sticking to just one topic and staying focused on it, rather than throw a barrage of questions here-and-there, would be more polite and helpful. Shawns answer said here: "It is is all cyclical based upon the spot in the 12 year solar cycle and whose voracity gets modulated by the 3rd harmonics of the planetary force influences." What I didn't understand about this was that I have never heard of "Solar Cycle Voracity", or "3rd harmonics of planetory forces". Although I am a practising scientist ( albeit I am not a practising astrophysicist/climate scientists) I have learned enough astrophysics to be able to read a peer-reviewed astrophysics journal article; before but have never heard those terms before ("Solar Cycle Voracity", or "3rd harmonics of planetory forces") and wanted to know how they were defined, what is their equation and how are they measured. After going back and forth on email, Shawn kindly cleared up one point by stating that : "Voracity is just my term for enhanced solar impact or lack there of." However, the articles he has provided so far have only shown correlations between certain aspects of the suns magnetic cycle and La Nina, meaning that the studies have not shown any causal mechanism and their evidence suggests that studying the suns magnetic cycle on La Nina is something that warrants future study but they cannot conclusively show that La Nina is triggered by the suns magnetic cycle. That does not necessarily mean that La Nina ISN'T triggered by the suns magnetic cycle, but only that so far, we can see a correlation between the two, (Around 75% of La Nina's can be predicted by just looking at the suns magnetic cycle in one of the papers he sent me) but without a causal mechanistic explanation as to why that might be. Correlation does not equal causation, so it is a field that still needs to be studied. My personal understanding is that the solar cycle may have some influence on La Nina, but might not be the only factor, since not all La Ninas can be accurately predicted by the solar magnetic cycle. Shawn was also kind enough to share an article explaining what "harmonics" are. Harmonics in this case is just integer multiples of the natural frequency of something, But the paper was referring to sun cycle harmonicss (In which case, the 3rd harmonic is simply 3.6 Year cycles, because the suns magnetic cycle is roughly around 11 years, 11 divided by 3 gives your 3.6). However, this is referring to the sun cycles harmonic not "3rd harmonics of planetory forces", thus I have asked him again what 3rd harmonics of planetory forces" refers to (Since as you know, the Sun is not a planet). I am currently waiting for his reply on this matter.
    • LL
      Leiland L.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:57
      Hey Seahyung, when you get a chance can you throw together a small response on the comments for us to see? Regardless I am getting into some Ag firms, but I'd like to know if you uncover any reasoning that is not just depanandt on past correlations. Not that those aren't important, but I'm curious how these solar alignments or sun spots affect weather. My take away fromt his is just increased gravitational pull and EM distruptions, but I am incredibly far from being a scientest.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      20 October 2020 @ 11:04
      Just sent an email, will wait for a reply. Thank you for taking the time to reply here; much appreciated.
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      20 October 2020 @ 10:20
      Absolutely will. Please email me and I would be glad to forward some papers for your review in this topic.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      20 October 2020 @ 09:15
      Thank you for the second response. I am very sorry, but a lot of what you said has come off to me as word salad, as many things you are saying dont make sense and have raised more questions than answered. I admit that this might be because I am not an expert in astrophysics, but I do know enough to be able to understand a peer reviewed scientific paper on astrophysics. What is solar voracity ? How is voracity measured? What is the equation? I have never learned this before in astrophysics. What are harmonics of planetory forces? Do you mean resonant frequencies? Are you implying that planetary vibrations can cause changes in solar activity? Again, I have never learned this before in astrophysics. Again, could you provide a citation or links to scientifically peer-reviewed journal articles, or maybe articles from respectable institutions such as NOAA or NASA that state clearly why "La Nina gets triggered from the forces out in space"
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      19 October 2020 @ 20:50
      yes we do. That is how we predicted this La Nina would take place at this time and last into 2022 in a report we put out 3 years ago. It is is all cyclical based upon the spot in the 12 year solar cycle and whose voracity gets modulated by the 3rd harmonics of the planetary force influences. It is also the causal influence on the longer term basis for the 40 year PDO/AMO sea surface temperature cycle that leads global temperatures in a 40 year upward and downward trend. That 40 year cycle is completing here in 2020 and will end the 40 year sea surface temperature warming phase that has caused the overall period of warming of global temperatures over that same time frame as would be predicted. The next phase is the 40 year cooling of these oceans and the same for global temperatures. The added cooling force this time around that was not in existence during the last global temperature cooling cycle from 1940 to 1980 is that we are now in a Grande Solar Cycle minimum cooling phase with very cooling forces form the planetary orientations the likes we have not seen since the early 1600's when we entered the Maunder minimum which was one of the most destabilizing cold and volatile weather periods over the last 1000 years. Earth lives in space and we know from the very simple example of the moons influence on our ocean tides that our atmosphere and climate are greatly impacted by such solar system forces. Everything is connected and everything is always changing which is why climate is always changing and never stable. All humans can do is adapt. I truly appreciate your interest. Thank you so much.
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      19 October 2020 @ 17:04
      Hi, thank you for the response. Just to pick a very specific example, could you explain this sentence?: "When La Nina gets triggered from the forces out in space, an upwelling of cold water displaces the warm surface water that preceded it with an El Nino." It has been a while since I studied earth science but I was not aware that La Nina was triggered by forces out in space. Do you have a particular citation or series of papers that discusses this idea in detail?
    • SH
      Shawn H. | Contributor
      19 October 2020 @ 11:59
      Would love to discuss with you further and go over the strong body of scientific rigor that our conclusions come from. Thank for your comments and look forward to hearing from you to further the scientific process.
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    23 October 2020 @ 19:11
    Shawn your report was fascinating, I really enjoyed reading it, it has given me so much to think about, consider and research. Thanks for the work I look forward to anything you share here at RV in the future!