Published on: January 20th, 2020

The general market narrative from participants is saying one thing while the underlying data is telling us another. What’s Up? Raoul tries to figure it all out…


  • WD
    Wim D.
    23 January 2020 @ 07:42
    Sorry to drop somewhat of a newbie question, but I'm a bit of a bond-noob, I do get the ED-trade etc (expected to go up as short term yields drop ), but still confused on the 10y / ZN watch-levels .. are 10y yields expected to drop, thus again a flattening of the 2-10 curve ? ( and are yields are inversely correlated to ZN futures contracts ? )..
    • JL
      J L.
      23 January 2020 @ 12:28
      you are correct, except if the shit really hits the fan rates might get cut another 100 basis points which can cause the curve to steepen (google bull steepener)
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 January 2020 @ 17:29
      Exactly yes. And the curve flattens if the Fed is literally "behind the curve" in cutting. The long end of the curve can rally in anticipation of eventual fed action.
  • JW
    J W.
    24 January 2020 @ 08:58
    Compelling views. The facts speak clearly but they still get lost in the global market noise. Thanks again for sharing. The recession can is kicked down the road once more. Looks like we are dancing on a volcano. I'll stop with the metaphors now :-)
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    23 January 2020 @ 21:20
    Hi Raoul, Thanks for replying back to this group this time around. Question: I re-played EDZ0 99 calls and also EDZ1 after taking a profit around September (this was your call and many many thanks!!). Now I have bigger exposure in Z0 vs Z1 since my greedy emotions got in the way and I listened to the story of your friend doubling down (this was last year before repo operations). Now I'm struggling for the probabilities to play out or roll the Z0 99 calls but this will cost. Can you please elaborate on this in your next update? Many thanks for everything and help to the individual investors....exciting times as I switch my career from corporate to full time trading (best decision of my life! :))
  • AM
    Aengus M.
    23 January 2020 @ 16:35
    Hi, can anyone tell me what LEI is please? Thanks in advance.
    • AM
      Aengus M.
      23 January 2020 @ 16:55
      Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    23 January 2020 @ 16:48
    Raoul your analysis is looking spot on in real time today. If were to assume this is a 2016 reflation or bust the market is speaking in volumes as we see commodity intensive companies along with physical commodities trading nothing like the impulse we saw in 2016. Although our fed is clearly pivoting in to a more easing stance, just maybe they arent doing enough on the margin to save this cycle this time around.
  • JB
    Jonathan B.
    21 January 2020 @ 16:57
    In your conclusion you say “Once the data firms show their hands...”. Not clear to me what you are referring to. Referencing FB, GOOG earnings?
    • AM
      Aengus M.
      23 January 2020 @ 16:32
      Agree, can you please clarify?
  • JM
    Jeroen M.
    21 January 2020 @ 18:35
    That EURODOLLAR Dec-21 is trading close... 98,495. Looking forward to a flash ; )
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      21 January 2020 @ 20:04
      There we go, a very short 95,500 on the screen
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      21 January 2020 @ 20:04
      98,500 that is
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 January 2020 @ 15:32
      Sorry, was travelling. I would like to see a clear break of 98.60 in EDZ1...looks good thus far..
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      23 January 2020 @ 14:42
      Haha...Well the TLT briefly touched @ 141.18... exciting times
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      23 January 2020 @ 16:27
      Exciting is a bad term here. Bond market here could the signal for big recession ahead. TLT @ 141,32
  • SH
    Stu H.
    22 January 2020 @ 20:01
    The grind lower from September to now on the ED charts look very bull flag like to me. TA theory suggests the resultant move will be around the same as the preceding flagpole which would put us at around 100. Maybe Trump will get his low interest rates running into the U.S elections?
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    21 January 2020 @ 02:31
    Could please explain why you choose to focus specifically on the Eurodollar December 2021 as opposed to a more near dated Eurodollar contract?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 January 2020 @ 15:34
      Just time for it to play out...
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      22 January 2020 @ 19:19
      I see well I don’t have access to platforms with contracts that far dated at the moment. Rolling futures less ideal but ok?
  • CS
    C S.
    21 January 2020 @ 03:06
    Hi Raoul, Lets assume Hedgeye are correct on their US GDP Nowcast for Q4 2019 and the number comes in a lot weaker than consensus - what effect, if any, do you think that would have on the value of Eurodollars? What Eurodollar options contract would you be most interested in purchasing from here, assuming things fall the right way? June 2021? Dec 2021. I have some 99 Dec2020 calls that I think will have a hard time rallying against decay and am wondering if I should roll them over into a longer duration (and at what strike?). Also, would you be sending out an Alert if/when you take action on the levels you are watching? Thank you.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 January 2020 @ 15:34
      I think EDZ1 makes the most sense so we have some time and a mix between calls and outright futures. We'll get to that if the trades are triggered.
  • TH
    Tim H.
    21 January 2020 @ 16:04
    Hello Raoul, I see the data on your chart often doesnt include Q4 of 2019. This would mean we dont know if there is an improvement of the data and driving a bit blind here. Your thoughts?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 January 2020 @ 15:33
      There is no Q4 data yet for some things..

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.