Darker and Darker

Published on: May 25th, 2020

The far-reaching effect of COVID-19 on the global economy is being reflected in the data. We anticipate the economic impact to be violent and reach epic proportions. With many western countries in lockdown, Remi Tetot reports on the newly-released economic data that has been particularly impacted by the COVID-19 breakout during the week.


  • TB
    Tad B.
    6 June 2020 @ 23:44
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    25 May 2020 @ 17:10
    Can anyone explain what has been the point of stopping the world economies for a death rate of .06% (overall world numbers and overall u.s. numbers) when the seasonal flu death world rate per year is .1%? The data and the headlines are not squaring. I know many people knew this early on. I'm relatively late to come around to this, but nonetheless I'm here now. WTF have we done? Who is benefiting from a 20% unemployment rate, massive money injections to corporates, shadow banks, hedge funds and the general population (mmt light)? What is going on here?
    • PG
      P G.
      25 May 2020 @ 18:11
      Because without the lockdown the death rate would be much higher. I know intimately what was going on in NYC. Right before the lockdown there were not 5 minutes that an ambulance would not pass. Two weeks after the lockdown started it started to become quite. As a person in the markets I know that people's memories are short. I did not believe it's that short!
    • RR
      Romein R.
      26 May 2020 @ 01:26
      @PG it’s not that their memories are short, it’s that they don’t even know. You look at Zerohedge comments and the vast majority there don’t get it — that if this virus isn’t kept in check it VERY quickly gets out of control. This is path the US is on now, give it 2 months, that’s not that long, then people will hopefully get it!
    • jW
      john W.
      26 May 2020 @ 08:51
      According to CDC, US flu deaths typically look to be under 50k per year with a couple of recent year exceptions so Covid at 100k has a higher death incidence than the flu. Covid is more contagious, so the point of the shutdown was to flatten the statistical curve for case incidents that would otherwise overwhelm hospitals and lead to more deaths. Leaders made decisions to save lives. It stopped the economy. In any crisis there's an advantage to someone. Even Suze Orman said someone will make a fortune. Perhaps Raoul should get her on RV!
    • DB
      David B.
      28 May 2020 @ 01:26
      I believe NYC had 0.2% of its population die in the last couple months, so that's the baseline with much less than 100% of the city infected, meaning the real death rate is higher than that. Where are you getting 0.06%??
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      4 June 2020 @ 04:49
      Because when every strata of your society is tapped out with debt service and the whole thing is about to collapse, you take advantage of an event like the Wuhan Virus and tank that economy. Blame it on the Virus. Print like hell and paper over your central bank created beast of a situation. As they say, Never let a good crisis go to waste.
  • MD
    Mandar D.
    28 May 2020 @ 13:03
    Trying to understand a weekly update with multi year charts.
  • wc
    william c.
    26 May 2020 @ 02:30
    Real Vision seems more and more weighted towards a bearish bias. I have been a member for a long period and remember when it was much more balanced. The reality is that data has likely already bottomed and will improve from here. As Gabriel D said it would be good to do a report focused on improvements in data and any positive points to take out of the market in the short term.
    • GD
      Graham D.
      26 May 2020 @ 05:38
      I agree that positive data, if it exists, should be reported but I don't see why a balanced view can't also happen to be bearish. Maybe the balance exists somewhere between terrible and catastrophic. I'd love that not to be the case but RV need to report the truth as they see it.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      26 May 2020 @ 20:55
      Personally, i prefer an honest, objective analysis. Balance is for political commentators. We should be in pursuit of the truth, wherever that leads us.
    • DT
      David T.
      26 May 2020 @ 22:30
      I don't know who uses this report for anything productive. Car registrations are down? Shoot, no one could get out of home to register it even if they have bought one and registration office would have been closed too. That indicator is a bs like many others in this report. Lockdown data is not reflective of to what level will economy return to. They are just trowing some bones for plus subscribers.
    • wc
      william c.
      27 May 2020 @ 06:44
      Yes it's good to be informed on economic data. Although the point is that we know the data is bad and what real value is this report giving us as investors? what actionable ideas can we take from this. For example if you had been reading these reports each week and shorting equities you would have lost money. It would be good to have more actionable ideas and narratives around the specific economic data points. Ideally the whole point of looking at a range of economic data and understanding the macro landscape is to make money at some stage. Reporting the truth should be the aim as financial journalists but also trying to report positive data (improving data) along with poor data points gives a more balanced approach.
    • wc
      william c.
      27 May 2020 @ 07:02
      It's not all doom and gloom out there. * Germany May IFO - Expectations much stronger than expected * France May PMI Manufacturing much stronger than expected * UK May PMI Manufacturing stronger than expected
    • TR
      Tobias R.
      27 May 2020 @ 10:58
      Agree, the titles tells you it's a search for gloom. To be fair think things are gloomy but it's a search for information to support the narrative. Some of the data is really plain useless "Macau visitors index", what kind of effect do you expect? Please RV, don't make this a search for any data point that points down
    • RT
      Remi T. | Founder
      27 May 2020 @ 18:37
      Thank you all for your constructive comments. These reports are meant to report on data impacted by covid globally (as stated on page 2 of each reports). They are not meant to be used for investing but as a trusted source of information and published by GMI originally. I apologies for the confusion and will do my best to take your points into consideration. Unfortunately data are still catching up, so it is hard to build a full positive narrative yet, but it should come soon enough. For the ones looking for actionable ideas PRO level is where you will find some via Macro Insiders.
  • GD
    Gabriel D.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:49
    Remi, thank you for another hard hitting report. It would be good to mix in some positive data, if there is any out there. I feel like these reports might be a little biased to highlighting all the bad data, of which there is of course plenty. Thanks.
    • jW
      john W.
      26 May 2020 @ 08:22
      Positive data point is that RV subscriptions are UP!
  • LA
    Linda A.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:53
    Thank u for your wonderful charts!
  • RR
    Raj R.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:15
    Hi RVites, what is a good platform to trade everything Raoul recommends? Does TD Ameritrade give us the range?
    • Am
      AMMAR m.
      25 May 2020 @ 18:25
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      25 May 2020 @ 22:54
      Interactive Brokers is good too.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    25 May 2020 @ 17:21
    In this confluence of negative sharp trends in the global economy - how important is price discovery? If struggling businesses get it wrong will they be out of business?

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.