Darker and Darker

Published on: May 25th, 2020

The far-reaching effect of COVID-19 on the global economy is being reflected in the data. We anticipate the economic impact to be violent and reach epic proportions. With many western countries in lockdown, Remi Tetot reports on the newly-released economic data that has been particularly impacted by the COVID-19 breakout during the week.

Comments

  • TB
    Tad B.
    6 June 2020 @ 23:44
    🥺🔫
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    25 May 2020 @ 17:10
    Can anyone explain what has been the point of stopping the world economies for a death rate of .06% (overall world numbers and overall u.s. numbers) when the seasonal flu death world rate per year is .1%? The data and the headlines are not squaring. I know many people knew this early on. I'm relatively late to come around to this, but nonetheless I'm here now. WTF have we done? Who is benefiting from a 20% unemployment rate, massive money injections to corporates, shadow banks, hedge funds and the general population (mmt light)? What is going on here?
    • PG
      P G.
      25 May 2020 @ 18:11
      Because without the lockdown the death rate would be much higher. I know intimately what was going on in NYC. Right before the lockdown there were not 5 minutes that an ambulance would not pass. Two weeks after the lockdown started it started to become quite. As a person in the markets I know that people's memories are short. I did not believe it's that short!
    • TR
      Tommy R.
      26 May 2020 @ 01:26
      @PG it’s not that their memories are short, it’s that they don’t even know. You look at Zerohedge comments and the vast majority there don’t get it — that if this virus isn’t kept in check it VERY quickly gets out of control. This is path the US is on now, give it 2 months, that’s not that long, then people will hopefully get it!
    • JW
      John W.
      26 May 2020 @ 08:51
      According to CDC, US flu deaths typically look to be under 50k per year with a couple of recent year exceptions so Covid at 100k has a higher death incidence than the flu. Covid is more contagious, so the point of the shutdown was to flatten the statistical curve for case incidents that would otherwise overwhelm hospitals and lead to more deaths. Leaders made decisions to save lives. It stopped the economy. In any crisis there's an advantage to someone. Even Suze Orman said someone will make a fortune. Perhaps Raoul should get her on RV!
    • DB
      David B.
      28 May 2020 @ 01:26
      I believe NYC had 0.2% of its population die in the last couple months, so that's the baseline with much less than 100% of the city infected, meaning the real death rate is higher than that. Where are you getting 0.06%??
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      4 June 2020 @ 04:49
      Because when every strata of your society is tapped out with debt service and the whole thing is about to collapse, you take advantage of an event like the Wuhan Virus and tank that economy. Blame it on the Virus. Print like hell and paper over your central bank created beast of a situation. As they say, Never let a good crisis go to waste.
  • MD
    Mandar D.
    28 May 2020 @ 13:03
    Trying to understand a weekly update with multi year charts.
  • WC
    Will C.
    26 May 2020 @ 02:30
    Real Vision seems more and more weighted towards a bearish bias. I have been a member for a long period and remember when it was much more balanced. The reality is that data has likely already bottomed and will improve from here. As Gabriel D said it would be good to do a report focused on improvements in data and any positive points to take out of the market in the short term.
    • GD
      Graham D.
      26 May 2020 @ 05:38
      I agree that positive data, if it exists, should be reported but I don't see why a balanced view can't also happen to be bearish. Maybe the balance exists somewhere between terrible and catastrophic. I'd love that not to be the case but RV need to report the truth as they see it.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      26 May 2020 @ 20:55
      Personally, i prefer an honest, objective analysis. Balance is for political commentators. We should be in pursuit of the truth, wherever that leads us.
    • DT
      David T.
      26 May 2020 @ 22:30
      I don't know who uses this report for anything productive. Car registrations are down? Shoot, no one could get out of home to register it even if they have bought one and registration office would have been closed too. That indicator is a bs like many others in this report. Lockdown data is not reflective of to what level will economy return to. They are just trowing some bones for plus subscribers.
    • WC
      Will C.
      27 May 2020 @ 06:44
      Yes it's good to be informed on economic data. Although the point is that we know the data is bad and what real value is this report giving us as investors? what actionable ideas can we take from this. For example if you had been reading these reports each week and shorting equities you would have lost money. It would be good to have more actionable ideas and narratives around the specific economic data points. Ideally the whole point of looking at a range of economic data and understanding the macro landscape is to make money at some stage. Reporting the truth should be the aim as financial journalists but also trying to report positive data (improving data) along with poor data points gives a more balanced approach.
    • WC
      Will C.
      27 May 2020 @ 07:02
      It's not all doom and gloom out there. * Germany May IFO - Expectations much stronger than expected * France May PMI Manufacturing much stronger than expected * UK May PMI Manufacturing stronger than expected
    • TR
      Tobias R.
      27 May 2020 @ 10:58
      Agree, the titles tells you it's a search for gloom. To be fair think things are gloomy but it's a search for information to support the narrative. Some of the data is really plain useless "Macau visitors index", what kind of effect do you expect? Please RV, don't make this a search for any data point that points down
    • rt
      remi t. | Founder
      27 May 2020 @ 18:37
      Thank you all for your constructive comments. These reports are meant to report on data impacted by covid globally (as stated on page 2 of each reports). They are not meant to be used for investing but as a trusted source of information and published by GMI originally. I apologies for the confusion and will do my best to take your points into consideration. Unfortunately data are still catching up, so it is hard to build a full positive narrative yet, but it should come soon enough. For the ones looking for actionable ideas PRO level is where you will find some via Macro Insiders.
  • GD
    Gabriel D.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:49
    Remi, thank you for another hard hitting report. It would be good to mix in some positive data, if there is any out there. I feel like these reports might be a little biased to highlighting all the bad data, of which there is of course plenty. Thanks.
    • JW
      John W.
      26 May 2020 @ 08:22
      Positive data point is that RV subscriptions are UP!
  • LA
    Linda A.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:53
    Thank u for your wonderful charts!
  • RR
    Raj R.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:15
    Hi RVites, what is a good platform to trade everything Raoul recommends? Does TD Ameritrade give us the range?
    • AM
      Ammar M.
      25 May 2020 @ 18:25
      Yes
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      25 May 2020 @ 22:54
      Interactive Brokers is good too.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    25 May 2020 @ 17:21
    In this confluence of negative sharp trends in the global economy - how important is price discovery? If struggling businesses get it wrong will they be out of business?