Deep Dive – October 2019

Published on: October 28th, 2019

In this month’s Meeting of Minds, Raoul presents two pieces. The first, “Plumbing the Macro Depths” discusses the threat that tightening dollar liquidity poses to global markets. The second, “A New Monetary Future” is a discussion of the future of currency itself, prompted by Mark Carney’s comments about the need for a digital alternative to the US Dollar. The common element is the centrality of the global reserve currency to global markets. Since the first piece was released, the Fed acted to supply liquidity to avoid precisely the kind of repercussions Raoul feared.

Comments

  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    27 November 2019 @ 14:35
    Raoul - an update on your bitcoin and eurodollar future trading view would be very much appreciated!
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    30 October 2019 @ 11:06
    Hi all, There is some confusion I can see on the site in recent days which 'i'd like to address. The Meeting of Minds is an article from GMI/MI which is released to MI subscribers after it is released to the GMI/MI subscribers. So, while it many not be fully actionable it will give you significantly more input into our broader thinking and frameworks than MI alone does. So, yes the charts might be a few weeks out of date, price action may have changed a bit but the overall thoughts have validity. This maintains the integrity of GMI/MI for its subscribers yet gives MI subs more than they would ordinarily get for the price. Also, there is some confusion about twitter comments of me reducing fixed income trades etc. Again, GMI has a LOT more risk on in this area than MI. I trimmed 3 fixed income trades and still have another 4 on in GMI. The level of risk and complexity is much higher than MI. If I am reducing MI I will send an update. My twitter feed does allow you to see that I am unsure of near term direction but I do not feel the need to change anything for MI at this point. I hope all of that helps! Raoul
    • RM
      Richard M.
      30 October 2019 @ 12:40
      Thanks for the clarification Raoul! Although there are some really good points below in the discussion thread about ways to make this an even better service for us subscribers. And I totally agree that this is a great service and enjoy it immensely!
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      30 October 2019 @ 14:13
      Thanks, I think I start to understand difference GMI and MI. As per earlier below what would be great is an up to date overview of MI positions in a simple format, eg I miss Julians rec on silver and plat trades and your ED 2019 call spread in portfolio overview. More nice to have would be an email alert if big things change. If stoploss passed like KBE it is easy, but what is really valuable is to have the recommendations / trade ideas consolidated and up to date, maybe not needed on daily basis but for trade idea / flash update coming out. The value here is that in evenings you can do reading, take the relevant positions, not worry on hourly basis during the day (great segway in "being tested" write-up, was really appreciate!) and have the comfort MI has latest big items in their rec / trade ideas included. What I worry about now is that I might miss big things in team's thinking and refreshing twitter / mi / other platforms and causes too much distraction. Maybe wishful thinking but trying to control this proces a little better. Answer may be to go passive after all (HF), but still want to give this a shot. Keep doing what you are doing and best of luck, Jeroen
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      30 October 2019 @ 18:09
      Thanks for the clarification Raoul. That makes a lot of sense. If I may make one more suggestion, perhaps you and Julian could briefly touch upon what you envision for sizing a MI position. Without knowing in advance how much risk you're planing to put forth, it's hard to properly size the position (i.e. if you think you're only going to suggest X positions for MI in fixed income, or Y positions in metals, currencies, stock, etc. then you'll have a much better idea than we will on suggested sizing). Ultimately we are responsible for the size we carry, of course, but if, for example, we allocate improperly we could have a lot more cash than intended because we might expect more trades than you ultimately suggest, or conversely, we might have a fully allocated account and you're still making recommendations. Naturally this is complicated on both ends as you likely don't know in advance how many positions are suitable beforehand and likewise we need to determine whether or not to jump in or scale in, use leverage or not, etc. This added complexity might be inappropriate for the portfolio construction reports and I understand that, but if you and Julian wouldn't mind having a small part of the next conversation devoted to your thoughts on sizing for MI positions, it would be most helpful. Many thanks, Geoff
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      31 October 2019 @ 06:32
      Raoul, thanks for the update! May I just check with your what % of your portfolio have you allocated to bitcoin? Keen to get a reference point for my own sizing
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      1 November 2019 @ 11:49
      I think whats being missed here is Raoul and Julian are big picture macro thinkers. When they are building a thesis it isn't one that has a shelf life of 2 days, rather multi month outlook. Problem with today's zero commission traders is they are far to impatient and dont realize that macro takes time to play out. The calls both Julian and Raoul are trying to nail today have market implications for the next 6 months plus, probably longer. The release of the note is of little importance. Im much more interested in the big theme calls they're trying to share. Ive been doing this since 2008 and there's a reason why I signed up for 2 years last year on that discount. There work is very well thought out and worth every penny. Thanks for your hard work guys, both Julian and Raoul.
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      1 November 2019 @ 11:50
      Pardon my crappy grammar lol
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      1 November 2019 @ 15:32
      Could you just do an overview page of what service offers what? Maybe with an example report as you do on the GMI Page. Just the way startups do describing their pricing tiers / service offerings. Should help avoid confusion and therefore improve customer satisfaction... I think got it now, but it took a while to figure out... Real Vision - Videos and Interviews regarding trading ideas and the big picture with experts Think Tank - Reports on big structural shifts / big picture MI - Reports and Video on the Macro Environment and some Trading ideas, updated every couple of weeks GMI - Detailed Macro Reports and Trades, updated frequently (daily?)
  • JM
    Jeroen M.
    29 October 2019 @ 13:02
    Difficult to be tough here, as I think RVTV is a great product and happy follower. But.. I have to say MI has some improvement potential, also highlighted this with the team last month. I am not paying a 20% (carried) profit share, so not whining about performance. But there is a point to make as per below that the report is 1m old (uncertain if less relevant / outdated?) and twitter arguably got the scoop. This way I need to spend too much time on twitter tracking as gives most up-to-date views (GMI => Twitter => MI). Exactly the reason I wanted MI in an attempt to manage my own portfolio and be able to focus on my day job. Suggestions: Maybe too much products to keep focus and provide access to GMI for non-pro investors at price <GMI / >MI? Also as per below a more up to date / simple overview of MI positions (the in focus is outdated and structure not very intuitive)? + email alert if anything changed in MI positions (so do not have to refresh 3x per day ; )... and keep eye on twitter)? Hope feedback helps improve the products. Best of luck!
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      29 October 2019 @ 13:13
      Spot on. I feel the same way. I really like RV and at the beginning MI with Raoul and Julian great insights. I completely agree that they may have too many products going on at the same time and promoting them to get a bigger consumer base. If this is the case, another suggestion is to have a biweekly discussion on what is going on in the markets and their thoughts. Much better than waiting for their reports and it could be more actionable. Even though this is macro and medium to long term investments, what I really dont like is that it seems we are getting the insights a bit late or like you said you see it in twitter first.....not complaining but it is a great opportunity for Julian and Raoul to provide a better service here...
    • LH
      Luis H.
      29 October 2019 @ 13:50
      Completely Agee ! Julian and Raoul are brilliant minds but do not have the time to maintain MI updated. On the other hand I do not have the time to follow them in Twitter. There is a lot of room for improvement in communication with subscribers.This is especially noticeable at times like this.
    • MR
      Michael R.
      29 October 2019 @ 13:56
      fully agree. i would also like to know what happend to euribor-position?
    • mp
      mike p.
      29 October 2019 @ 19:00
      Unfortunately, it seems this product is not at all what it's portrayed to be. And that also goes for Real Vision in general. I stopped subscribing to ThinkTank because the reports were old and outdated. Now I'm getting the same thing except paying 10x more money?!
    • HK
      Hendrik K.
      29 October 2019 @ 20:53
      Thanks for saying - quite disappointed as I was hoping for three months for some trade ideas but basically only references to old ideas.
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      29 October 2019 @ 21:58
      Very much agree. I'd like to see the flash update better utilized. It doesn't have to be a full report. A simple twitter style update is fine. If you have a thought, a comment, a suggested position to look at, scale in/out of, or just check in when things get lively. It is disappointing to see twitter users get priority over paying subs. This platform has value, but could have tremendous value, so I hope to see some further effort put into it. If twitter is an easier platform to perform quick updates on, might I suggest a private twitter feed that could be published here as well. I feel there are many ways to attack this if there is a desire. I very much enjoy the content and I do understand you've been busy of late. I hope the feedback is helpful. All the best.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      30 October 2019 @ 09:45
      Very much agree. It took me a few months to realise I was missing out on loads of good info on Twitter, whilst constantly checking MI for non-existent flash updates. Twitter is a time hog, that I can’t always indulge in. Hoping for MI to provide succinct actionable ideas and information as it happens.
  • AM
    Artur M.
    29 October 2019 @ 18:00
    A lot of pain in bond trade around fin tweeter. Forward spreads are now suggesting 30% of hike next year. Two interesting post from Jeff Snider. One suggesting that we can have a pause in 10Y uptrend for quite some time. From the graphs up to 6 months. ED should act differently then 10Y but it's probably what many stir traders are positioning for and it's why ED suffers. Apparently pauses always happens during ED events. Well what a heck, read for your self: https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/10/28/the-midpoint/ and here he expects to take less time this time around: https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/10/28/more-points-for-and-pointing-to-the-midpoint/ I cross checked with front ED contract and it's not behaving exactly the same. If fed hicks or cuts rates, ED follows FED. But for extended cutting we need the markets to tank to force FED to capitulate and it's not happening. Buyback don't care about earnings or macro. The only thing that I see it play out soon is if we get macro data getting worse. Just thinking loud. Good Luck Artur @Ar2go2
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      30 October 2019 @ 01:50
      Thanks for sharing. Very interesting articles from Jeff. It seems in a different way Raoul was trying to get to this point in terms of timing for the ED play.
  • TC
    Terry C.
    29 October 2019 @ 21:52
    Julian and Raoul's $40k subscription UHNW clients would not be very happy to see their actionable research being readily shared with the Mass Affluent Macro Insiders.
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      29 October 2019 @ 22:09
      Eager to hear what are your expectations then for MI clients? Not sure this is for a mass audience. Mass is RV. Otherwise the target segmentation is completely wrong :)
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      29 October 2019 @ 22:38
      Are you suggesting that there is a conflict of interest across the two platforms? I doubt that. I think we get a more laymen overview of the much more thoroughly detailed 5 figure sub, but the actions should coincide although perhaps not across as many topics.
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      30 October 2019 @ 01:07
      That is what I thought Geoff. But I do think there is an issue with the timings. I know that in some cases Institutional investors get the info hours or maybe a few days prior is release to individual investors. Not sure here as Raoul and Julian both have the service for institutional investors.
  • dm
    daryl m.
    29 October 2019 @ 22:53
    I concur with Alberto A. No mention of Gold in this narrative with such conviction to Bitcoin. Thoughts would be much appreciated if it is still part of the end game you see ?
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    29 October 2019 @ 00:54
    Raoul, Sven says the Dec 2018 sell off was a rare event, not likely to be repeated. Yet, it seems from your analysis of boomer retirement effect, that it is likely to recur. Thoughts? Thank you. Per usual. found your thoughts useful. I wish there was a decent ETF for buying bitcoins. suggestions?
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      29 October 2019 @ 08:33
      BITCOINXB works right. Drawbacks fees, illiquidity and spread but if long-term? See it as fee someone managing crypto exposure for which I do not have the time.
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      29 October 2019 @ 11:53
      You made me read into this again: https://xbtprovider.com/assets/documents/factsheets/btce.pdf Maybe not as watertight as I expected.... darn ETFs
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      29 October 2019 @ 11:55
      Correct doc: https://xbtprovider.com/assets/documents/xbt-prospectus-(english-approved)-v15---website.pdf
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      29 October 2019 @ 20:24
      Thank you Jeroen!
  • MR
    Michael R.
    29 October 2019 @ 12:20
    the charts in this report are more than a month old (end date 20th of sep 2019). can you comment on this?
  • LH
    Luis H.
    29 October 2019 @ 11:08
    This is strange, you kept for months a narrative of buy bonds wear diamonds. Suddenly you are tweeting about reducing your bond position but kept Macro insiders in the dark and fed the subscribers with a month old report. The report is interesting but the issue at the moment is other.
    • DV
      Didier V.
      29 October 2019 @ 12:07
      The jury is still out if we have to buy or sell diamonds.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    29 October 2019 @ 12:06
    Hi Raoul. This seems to be an old report you wrote prior to October? (please correct me if I'm wrong). Not sure is timely as you mentioned a few things about the ED position which is not even happening. One suggestion is for you and Julian to put some timings behind your trades. Now you are talking about August 2020 when your previous messages, even though you never mentioned timing, was perceived to be an eminent jump in EU ....you never mentioned gold on this narrative....something change? remember the narrative buy bonds, buy dollars, buy gold...wear diamonds? thoughts?
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    28 October 2019 @ 23:54
    Hey Raoul - appreciate the update. Saw on twitter you’ve mentioned Looking to start to reducing exposure to rates, have you cut some of you ED positions yet?
  • AM
    Artur M.
    28 October 2019 @ 19:09
    Thanks for update. I see one more potential risk to recession view that is not so small. Why is Tramp admin issuing Trillion in debt. Well maybe Tramp will spend most of it by himself into the election to boost GDP? Should not be a surprise. There was some that suggested earnings recession, that could make the stocks fall. I thought it could be quite probable, with buybacks black out. Well up to now we are only -1% Y/Y, against -5 to -10 predicted by these guys. Read on Twitter that Reporting Standards have been change to make it easier for companies, don't know if it¨s true. But this one went out of the window. Still have the CCP to roll ower the swaps in RMB on Oct 31. Maybe finally unemployment numbers will turn and force cutting cycle. Artur @Ar2Go2

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.