Published on: February 22nd, 2021

Raoul bring us up to date on why he is so intensely focused on the digital asset space and why none of us can ignore it. It is literally the biggest thing that has ever happened…


  • B
    Benjamin .
    22 February 2021 @ 18:30
    Raoul, compelling arguments, as ever. I'm fully onboard. Apart from owning BTC and ETH (already MAX long, roughly 90%/10%), how do we fully monetise this epochal shift? I'm not keen on the idea of just randomly selecting a basket of 10 NFT/DeFi tokens and fingers crossed. E.g. any funds or listed holdco's? (Already own GLXY and ARB!) Thanks! BH
    • B
      Benjamin .
      22 February 2021 @ 22:55
      Argo Blockchain Lexi L
    • PC
      Patrick C.
      22 February 2021 @ 20:54
      I look at the kind of problems that Charles Hoskinson is thinking through. If he or anyone else can address just two to three problems on that board with their protocol, I'd say those would be good places to start. See the first video here https://roadmap.cardano.org/en/.
    • WT
      William T.
      22 February 2021 @ 19:14
      Do you mean Galaxy digital ( BRPHF) ?
    • LL
      Lexington L.
      22 February 2021 @ 19:03
      Hi, I am familiar with Galaxy, what is ARB?
  • ac
    adam c.
    22 February 2021 @ 18:37
    Thank you great content, as we can recieve a very good yield from our crypto and that bonds may only have just one last harah. Could Bitcoin start to take the place of bonds within portfolios? If so that got to be exciting when you mention Global debt markets have a capitilisation of $283 trillion.
  • EF
    22 February 2021 @ 18:41
    So the conclusion of this piece is that everything else RV offers and the people it interviews outside this space is pointless. To quote Raoul in this piece “ Everything else is a sideshow for amusement and a few trades”....
    • JW
      James W.
      22 February 2021 @ 23:50
      Three things: Raoul's opinion might not be right for your portfolio--I haven't sold my real estate to invest in BTC/crypto, for example--BUT understanding how this particular trade works, and the dynamics of it has kept me from doing the standard re-balancing I might otherwise have done, making me irresponsibly long vs my normal portfolio construction. Also, 80% downmoves *happen* in these exponential spaces, so if you're leveraging long, LOOK OUT! (Amazon was down 90% in fact). Finally, lifestyle toys can be useful--had friends during dot com one who were up literally millions of dollars who didn't cash anything out, and ended up working the next 20 years as more or less normal salaried employees. They're not broke, but quite a different lifestyle than it looked like they would have in early 2000. Figuring out how you can change your entire life and at what price is something that you have to do--Raoul already owns his house (with it's bar and pool table), has two businesses etc.
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      22 February 2021 @ 20:46
      I must confess this confuses me as well. What's the point of RV or any market education (heck I'm not even sure why I need a job). Just leverage up and buy btc at any price for a risk free 100 to 200 times your money. It's risk free because a 50% drawdown is your only concern and that comes either after a 5x run up, or if it happens sooner will be met with a 10x run up on it's way to 100-200x. I don't get it. Sounds way too WSB to me. They've have many 100x plays so far.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 February 2021 @ 18:50
      It is my opinion that this dwarfs everything currently. It won't always be thus..
  • AS
    Alejandro S.
    22 February 2021 @ 18:54
    Raoul, you add value if only because you force us to give this space serious thought instead of allowing us to dismiss it quickly, which is what most would prefer and by extension be reassured that things are business as usual. Thanks for the constant, well researched, drumming. I am not hugely into the space but at least have convinced myself I need to do the homework and own some crypto just in case you are right between now and me doing my own work. Thank you for that!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 February 2021 @ 23:26
      Thanks for letting me beat the drum...!
  • SC
    Sanjeev C.
    22 February 2021 @ 19:39
    "Software is eating money." Raoul, you might get famous for this! Great report! Really helped me put DA in perspective with the big picture / macro
  • PC
    Patrick C.
    22 February 2021 @ 20:44
    If nothing else, besides the AI/ML classes I took, this is the most fun I have had in a long while. There is so much to learn, and that's definitely not a complaint!
  • DB
    David B.
    22 February 2021 @ 20:45
    Raoul, loving the trade; am in it and adapting to the mindset shift you describe. Seems like it was your own evolution out of the trade in '17 and then back. Still what could be helpful is more granular scenarios on the possible response of authorities at levels above $XBT $100k, $150k, $250k and so forth. Even the best skeptics (Mike Green) haven't elaborated it. I suspect there is unpublic information. You answered the question on Exit strategy well before in one of the Insider Talks. I also agree on the comment re: guidance on how else to position for the DAE that is accessible. E.g., I wish I could buy 10T with Dan but I can't.
  • SH
    Stu H.
    22 February 2021 @ 20:51
    I've literally read nothing else over the past year other than books and articles on the subject of crypto and Defi, it's fascinating. I'm fully invested in BTC and ETH plus have a basket of other blockchain coins, just the usual ones - ADA - DOT - LINK - GRT etc. The problem is it's almost impossible to absorb enough content to make a reasoned choice as to the best way to invest in this space on a more focussed level, so much of it is way over my head and probably always will be. The bewildering array of tokens available and their use cases would take more hours to research than are available. How do we navigate this?
    • TM
      Tyler M.
      24 February 2021 @ 17:11
      It is tough. I know I’ll never be a technical expert in the space. But that’s okay. I kept it super simple and measured a variety of altcoins vs ETH and BTC over time—particularly focusing on the handful of coins that have made it through one or two market cycles. Based on that exercise, I came away with LINK, REN, and ADA. These altcoins have kept up with and typically outpaced ETH (I think comparing to ETH is more relevant than BTC, as Ethereum is basically the world’s first decentralized computer and most these other projects look to integrate with/complement/compete with Ethereum) over time. Finally, as I do more research, I’ve been adding small amounts of tokens from projects that are newer but super interesting. I like DOT, LRC, MATIC, NEXO, AAVE, SNX, INDEX, etc. If they crash and burn, I don’t lose much, but if they take off, well, I could make a lot. Again, I’m very new to the space, but this is the approach I’ve taken. My cryptocurrency portfolio is allocated like this: 50% BTC, 20% ETH, 5% ADA, 5% LINK, 5% REN, 5% DOT, and the remaining 10% in a whole basket of newer, interesting projects where $ risked is low. Hope that helps!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 February 2021 @ 23:25
      I have no idea! Its hard as hell...
  • ES
    Edward S.
    22 February 2021 @ 21:03
    "In the next five years, tokens are going to proliferate to such an extent that they will create the largest source of alpha – and hence investment returns – in world history." Looks like this is going to be absolutely true. Can we have more and more content please on the tokenisation of everything. Thanks for everything Raoul.
  • PM
    Parth M.
    22 February 2021 @ 23:24
    Hi Raoul, Thanks for the piece, I agree it has long way to go. Lots of bright people including you are closely watching what’s happening with Bitcoin. And where it does fit it. For example. Michale burry - Mentioned recently that Bitcoin doesn’t solve Triffin`s Dilemma neither does Gold. I will put Mike Green into the same category as he also kinda thinks the same. You- Mike Novogratz - Luke Gromen – You guys are super bullish on bitcoin. Luke mentioned recently, that if Bitcoin grows a lot in size it does solve Triffin`s Dilemma. And he thinks US Gov in short wants Bitcoin to appreciate. Me - I am just trying to find out where it will land. If Bitcoin need to solve the Triffin`s dilemma and replace USD as global currency it need to be able to replace the EURO DOLLAR market which is around may be $20 to $25 Trillion dollar somewhere. So now if we use PlanB`s S2F model and your Metcalf law. $1 million a BTC does sound big enough. And may be Jack Mallers Strike app (bitcoin lightning network) – is what helps BTC to be able used as a Global reserve currency. Just a thought. This is still work in progress but would love to see your thought on this.
  • JH
    J H.
    23 February 2021 @ 02:22
    Thanks for the piece, Raoul. I'm all for not trying to overly time a hyper volatile asset. That said - assuming someone already has a core long BTC position - I'd be interested in your thoughts on the following as potential ways to maximize the opportunity: 1) BTC cash and carry trade - buying the underlying and selling short futures to take advantage of the positive futures basis. This looks to be offering a highly compelling risk-free arb opportunity and takes additional BTC supply off the market (further helping spot BTC, all else the same). @PrestonPush, @100trillionUSD (PlanB), @woonomic and @IIICapital have all tweeted about this recently. With BTC leaving exchanges for cold storage and the various arb opportunities - even just some thoughts around what this dynamic could mean for price (ex the cash and carry trade) would be interesting to hear. 2) Even with the positive basis in the BTC futures market today, I believe market pricing / probabilities for the remainder of 2021 are significantly undershooting what you and many other strong advocates are saying for what the upside over the remainder of 2021 may look like - especially given it being post the halving mid last year. For instance, as of last week, I believe futures were pricing in less than a 20% chance of BTC hitting $100k by yearend. Outside of being long spot BTC, how can people capitalize on this? BTC call option IVs have increased considerably, but I suppose using pullbacks to buy OTM calls for later in 2021 could be a strategy? Fully aware this won't be for everyone and that you could lose your entire premium. 3) Public equities in the space - MicroStrategy, Riot, Hut8, Galaxy, etc. Most (if not all) of the names have significantly outpaced BTC during this move and IV levels on those with options indicate that there could be some interesting opportunities for those willing to write covered calls. I think the moves in these names - and the historical premium on GBTC (even if lower than the past) - say alot about the demand for anything BTC-related with a CUSIP that can be custodied in a traditional manner. Separately, I'd enjoy hearing you opine on the Michael Saylor / MicroStrategy convertible offerings to buy BTC. I enjoyed your interview with him and have heard a few others - but hearing people from all angles of the deal on the topic would be insightful... converts buyer (willingness to accept a low or even 0% yield given the potential equity upside and ability to play in the options market with their exposure, MSTR and how this could continue to play out from here, etc. I know Bill Miller participated in the first convert issuance. Apologies if you've already covered any of the above with recent content on the site. Thanks again for your insights. Much appreciated.
  • JR
    Jonathan R.
    23 February 2021 @ 02:42
    Piers Kicks' essay on the Metaverse is the most exciting piece on crypto I've read recently (and that's saying something!) It's amazing how I was raving about NBA Top Shots a month ago to my friends but nobody got it. Today, they're scooping up moments like mad. Play2Earn model within blockchain gaming and virtual worlds has shown such a strong use case in the Philippines already. In my view, NFTs could be a better on ramp for mainstream than something like DeFi without having prior blockchain knowledge. But UI/UX still has a long way to go. Would be awesome if RV could interview Piers Kicks on the platform!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 February 2021 @ 16:18
      It has been booked!
  • hb
    hilde b.
    23 February 2021 @ 03:36
    I prefere having an etf or fund for bitcoin. Easier to transact I have currently qbtc as gbtc charges large fees. I have read many etf are non fysically backed by bitcoin and operate with futures, derivatives. Would you have an idea wich etf or fund quoted on the stock exchanges are the best. ? I read Evolve on toronto, now recently launched , ticker ebit. or pantera fund should be fysically bitcoin .
  • JK
    John K.
    23 February 2021 @ 11:07
    Very Bold Prediction, Indeed!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    24 February 2021 @ 00:58
    Agree 95,000,000%. Great piece Raoul.
  • BD
    Bonamy D.
    24 February 2021 @ 06:42
    A thought regarding Piers Kicks' essay Into the Void, recommended in Raoul's piece above - if Gresham's Law (the ancient idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation) is applied to Bitcoin, and we make an assumption that Bitcoin is more robust than fiat, then the long term implication would be that Bitcoin will gradually withdraw from circulation as debasement plays out.
    • EC
      Edward C.
      25 February 2021 @ 14:43
      Like in the Mark Cuban interview with Raoul when Mark mentioned no one would spend Bitcoin at basketball games......why spend good/appreciating money when you can spend bad/depreciating money and get something of value in return.....crypto getting taken into cold storage already a sign of this???.......super interesting future ahead.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    24 February 2021 @ 12:26
    how is GMI metcalfe's law model derived?
  • KC
    Ken C.
    24 February 2021 @ 16:57
    I have kids in their mid 20's and this is a movement that is coming.  They are opting out of the US dollar a fiat currency for bitcoin/crypto. In a few days the federal government debt will pass 28 trillion with unfunded liabilities nearing 160 trillion. .  The Millennials and Gen Y's don't feel responsible for this legacy debt that they had no say in or benefit from and are expected to pay off.  We have a terrible public school system, our infrastructure and electrical grid is in shambles just to name a few things.  Where did the money go, bailing out corporate America or endless wars?  The only thing the Millennials and Gen Y will get from the federal government is the bill.  They see the Treasury and Federal reserve (Bonnie and Clyde) debasing the US dollar to inflate the debt away.  Let's call it what is, stealing.  So why hold US dollars in their view.  George Soros broke the Bank of England. Can the Reddit (Millennial generation and Gen Y) crowd someday break the fiat currency system with bitcoin?  The younger generation will be calling the shots with their saving and spending power and that will be in bitcoin. So what's wrong with their thinking?
  • WD
    Walther D.
    24 February 2021 @ 23:45
    The level of conviction is inspiring
  • BS
    Brian S.
    25 February 2021 @ 01:04
    You are spot on Raoul
  • PC
    Patrick C.
    25 February 2021 @ 05:01
    https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/95207/bitfinex-tether-new-york-ag-settlement-lawsuit. The Tether case just settled.
    • RK
      Roger K.
      27 February 2021 @ 11:37
      Settled with just state of NY I guess... believe they won't be printing as much as they used to.. That changes the whole game, but then again they have done their part and taken a bullet for the whole crypto community.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    28 February 2021 @ 04:55
    In light of these recent yield increases to 10yr Bonds, it's causing taper tantrum and wonder if this will discount risk assets heavily and since BTC isn't yet entirely uncorrelated to market moves, it may see some panic selling. Possibly!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 March 2021 @ 18:31
      Well, thats precisely what I am paying attention to as well! I dont know where RP is on this, but for me BTC is now tied to Tesla which is also tied to ARK. They are all now big enough to cause ripples (no pun intended) outside their specific pond. So I am keeping a close eye. But so far, bonds havnt traded high enough to break anything systemically important. And we know the Fed doesnt want anything broken right now. Which takes us back to the SLR (statutory liquidity ratio) question.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    28 February 2021 @ 04:56
    Wow! Crypto seems to have totally distorted your Macro views! Nothing interests you anymore. LOL :) Same here! I'm obsessed! I don't like it. I want to let this do it's thing without being obsessed. How do I achieve that? Need a little coaching.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 March 2021 @ 18:27
      Lucky for me my position in crypto is small enough to keep me sane, and big enough to keep me interested. Or is that unluckily for me?