Everything and Nothing

Published on: May 21st, 2020

Raoul explains that the reflation narrative is loud but if you tune out the noise, you can hear the sounds of something else… debt.

Comments

  • AP
    Aneil P.
    6 June 2020 @ 05:57
    To all those interested in buying real spot gold. You can use Crypto to do it. You can open an account with Paxos. https://www.paxos.com . Then you wire money into your account to buy PAXG. That will get you physical gold that is stored in a vault in London. That's the problem with Gold, you don't have direct access to it. Needs to be stored somewhere. UK government could still confiscate it. Unlike Bitcoin where you could have access to your wealth all in your head ( if you remember your private key that is).
  • JW
    J W.
    1 June 2020 @ 15:02
    If the demand for dollars is on the increase, should we not re-load the Eurodollar trade?
  • JO
    John O.
    26 May 2020 @ 21:12
    Permit me to note based on pattern recognition there have been 22 Bear Market RALLIES (+12% minimum gain) in the S&P 500 since 1929 and there have been 20 bull market BEGINNINGS since 1932. There is a non-random statistical difference between Bear Market RALLIES and Bull Market BEGINNINGS. To wit, 1. Bear Market rallies tend to exhibit declining volume characteristics relative to beginning Bull Markets. 2. Of the 22 Bear Market rallies, the five greatest average daily rate of change in volume into the top of the rally or to the first 42 days of rally (whichever comes first) was +11.42%. +6.91% and +5.19%, 4.78% and 4.59%. 3. Of the 20 Bull Market beginnings by day 42 the greatest average daily rate of change in volume into day 42 was +14.63%. The five greatest average increases in volume were +14.63%, +13.93%, +10.81%, +5.33%, +4.30%. 4. The Greatest average decrease in volume into the top of the Bear Market rally or to the first 42 days of rally (whichever comes first) was -34.82%. The five greatest average declines in volume were -34.82%, -27.11%, -15.94%, -12.92%, and -11.43%. 5. During Bull Market beginnngs, the greatest average decrease in volume into day 42 was -6.87%. The five greatest average declines in volume were -6.87%, -6.72%, -6.42% and -5.69% and -4.33%. 6. Through Friday our RALLY has generated an average decrease in volume of -12.31%. Never has a new bull market by day 42 generated a volume regression reading below -6.87%. Statistically speaking, the Volume action off the low informs a Bear Market Rally.
  • RR
    Raj R.
    25 May 2020 @ 08:02
    What is a popular platform to trade futures and currencies?
    • JW
      Jon W.
      25 May 2020 @ 21:48
      https://www.tdameritrade.com/investment-products/options-trading.page
  • JW
    Jon W.
    25 May 2020 @ 21:47
    What's with the "Apocalypse in Spain" table which appears to be from https://themarketear.com/posts/cGA_mrJnvx , and is it legitimate? There are no units, title, or anything else other than numbers from the original source, and the number is 100x the number shown in other places such as https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/bankruptcies ... If it was legitimate I'd expect to be able to find something else on the internet reporting this number.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    24 May 2020 @ 07:30
    I echo's Mike S' point - would love to get the community's thoughts (and Raoul too if you're there ; ) on gold (as of today). It does seem hot at the moment, but Raoul's chart from way back (I think it was Raoul's chart) showed (based on the 1929 playbook) a complete vertical from here. Therefore, I'd think it may not be too late? Thoughts? Warm regards, Matt.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 18:01
      To put in a placeholder answer for RP, with the usual caveats (do I really know what he is thinking?), I note the following. The big solvency collapse is not in itself positive for gold or even bitcoin. If anything, when people/governments are desperate for financial resources, they sell what they can, not what they want. So if the pressure deepens that might actually be negative for gold. It has been bullish because the authorities have done their best to offset the ongoing deflation of the system. I would guess that process will continue. So the more bad things get, the more the Feds balance sheet will expand. If so, then gold will probably continue to do well. Worth noting that in 1929, a lot of banks failed. So people were keen to hold their own money. Then in 1933 (from memory) FDR made private holdings of gold illegal. Im pretty sure there are a couple of lessons in there somewhere.
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      25 May 2020 @ 18:36
      Many thanks Harry. Appreciate the feedback.
  • JW
    Jon W.
    24 May 2020 @ 23:26
    Bizarre - I'm looking at the AT&T "doom porn" chart on page 9 and comparing that to what Interactive Brokers shows me. After 1998 both the chart here and the chart that IB shows look the same. However, prior to 1998 IB shows the price generally being way higher than after, and with large vertical drops in '87, '92 and '98. It certainly doesn't show the low price increasing up into '98 as in the "doom porn" chart. Is the IB data just broken?
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    24 May 2020 @ 12:06
    Great update. Not that I would know, but I think you're spot on with the Buffet Gates speculation. Thank you Raoul.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:55
      I agree Shanthi. Great observation from RP, and very telling. If Buffet isn't buying how cheap can it be?
  • MS
    Mike S.
    24 May 2020 @ 03:36
    Great insight. I am long Bitcoin and looking to get into gold. Do you recommend the GLD etf or GDX etf or both? Seems like it's a good time to take a position in GLD, but GDX looks very hot right now. Would love to get your thoughts.
    • MS
      Mike S.
      24 May 2020 @ 11:52
      Also - I understand that physical gold is the way to go but I don’t have the means to purchase. ETF is my only option.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:52
      Answering for Raoul (which involves a little risk in case he disagrees). But the conventional answer if to note that GDX has operational leverage, but is also less direct. Whereas GLD is a purer play on the gold price. Mines can do badly for all sorts of reasons, including government confiscation when they start to need money badly.
  • AH
    Ali H.
    23 May 2020 @ 12:17
    Fantastic analysis! Thank you Raoul.. Any other suggestions on how to trade potential insolvency apart from long Bonds & dollars?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:50
      Broadly speaking, if government fights the "insolvency" then long gold and bitcoin. Also short cyclical stocks, such as regional banks, and industrial commodities.
  • RD
    Ryan D.
    22 May 2020 @ 13:17
    These GMI are fantastic, well researched, and you can follow the compelling logic of the argument! I learn so much withe each report. 1. Would it be worth while to add or report the counter argument and data against the thesis? These reports seem a Herculean effort so just a thought and I know your plate is overflowing. 2.I would LOVE an in-depth interview of you talking about your process. Is it formal, in-formal what habits do you have, would love to learn more about your mental macro models and work-flow. This is probably to broad a question or a request. I could tell you my approach to evaluating shortness of breathe but would be hard for me to share my mental models of cardiology, would just take too long. What every wisdom and models you could share you be fantastic!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:47
      FWLIW Ryan, RP and JB both present competing analysis and ideas. Sometimes they are in synch, and sometimes they differ. I think a lot of the value is in listening to both analysis and deciding why they differ and what you think based on both presentations. Right now there are certain differences. I would definitely pay very close attention when the views come into pretty close alignment, and at the points when they come out of alignment.
  • EO
    Elena O.
    22 May 2020 @ 10:36
    Russia just announced a full ban on BTC and other coins produced/bought in Russia or abroad. So it's now illegal and you can go to jail for owning bTC. Seems like other governments will follow...
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:42
      Its probably not so easy to catch them though. But I agree, why would any country want to be leaking capital through this mechanism?
  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 May 2020 @ 23:47
    Raoul first thanks for the frequent updates. I much appreciate knowing where you stand which can change in a fast pace environment like this. I know you're committed to your guns but what's a pairs trade if your wrong? Your long bonds, USD, Gold, BTC. Got all those. But let's say you are wrong? What should I be long in equities? As you know many experts including Julian and you have said the equity is not the economy. So is equity the Fed easing? As long as they ease some equity will go up. And if so, which equity? Amazon? If I was going to make a long equity bet, Amazon the grocery store which delivers to my house might be it but what do you say to this?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:51
      Gold miners and Silver probably capture a cyclical recovery and still work in a debt deflation.
    • MN
      MATEUSZ N.
      24 May 2020 @ 00:35
      Value stocks, as a next cycle after Growth. In times of negative rates, people will look for some yields. Which means Dividends Aristocrats. Plus some other tech stocks promoted by UN agenda, like 5G, RV, AI, MEMS, BigData, Biotech, Robotics
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:38
      FWLTIW Mark if companies are strong and cashflow positive in this environment already (most arnt), then they will likely remain so, only those cashflows will be discounted at higher discount factors. Worth noting that the Fed has made yield very hard to find. So we shouldnt be surprised if "money-good" assets get bought.
  • JM
    Jeroen M.
    21 May 2020 @ 20:10
    Interesting update, thesis remains, little bit of coaching helps ; ) Means we are out of our 5 year bond call spread? Cant see real catalyst in next month or so. Markets numb, zomie-ing upwards thanks to PEP... cant print jobs I agree, but before market is able to see through... Maybe BTC and GOLD (silver) best safehouse there is right now, and they are on sale todat ; )
    • OA
      Obai A.
      21 May 2020 @ 22:02
      Was thinking the same but isn’t gold (silver) going to be deflated along with the commodities mentioned?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:53
      I will look at re-setting the bond trade. it still works burt we ran out of time on the first attempt... but risk reward is so good we can have a few shots...
    • CS
      C S.
      22 May 2020 @ 00:21
      Keep us updated raoul.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      24 May 2020 @ 17:27
      Peter Brandt suggests a break out levels for bonds. From memory, the 5-year future needs to close above 125-24 to break out.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    22 May 2020 @ 17:21
    So clearly mapped out... Thanks Raoul, class as always!
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    22 May 2020 @ 02:46
    Puts on GE for say October don't seem very expensive.. Is this a worthy trade?
    • EO
      Elena O.
      22 May 2020 @ 10:33
      yeah, I was thinking the same....short Ford and GE and AT&T
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 17:08
      Mulling over the same...
  • SW
    Sarah W.
    22 May 2020 @ 03:53
    Hi Raoul, new subscriber here. Thank you for sharing the analysis. It’s incredibly insightful, and learning a lot! Already have a gold and Bitcoin position, but interested in the bond play in anticipation of yields going to zero/negative. Is it sufficient to buy the TLT, or would you recommend buying actual bonds? Apologies if this is a stupid question, new to the bond market. Thanks!
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      22 May 2020 @ 14:58
      Hi Sarah, Check previous reports, Raoul doesn't actually buy bonds, he usually does bonds futures. It's a trade, not a long term investment e.g. no one interested in holding a 10Y bond yielding 0.5%. Cheers, Ivan
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 17:08
      You need something with a bit of leverage so futures or option on futures.
  • JW
    J W.
    22 May 2020 @ 06:15
    You get a shiver in the dark, It's raining in the park, but meantime: South of the river, you stop and you hold everything. A band is blowin' Dixie, double-four time. You feel alright when you hear that music play. Thanks Sultan :-)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 17:08
      haha
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    22 May 2020 @ 11:25
    Great read as always Raoul, thank you! Would you think me crazy if I was short Copper at the moment? Which I am!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 17:07
      I am too...
  • Mt
    Miami t.
    22 May 2020 @ 12:29
    Raoul, in your previous trading update you are short copper @ 5899. I use the HG futures, but what instrument do you use?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 17:07
      LME 3 months
  • yc
    yu c.
    22 May 2020 @ 14:09
    Loud and clear. Thanks so much Raoul!
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    21 May 2020 @ 20:23
    Hi all - Is the ZF (i.e. 5-year treasury options) trade still on? My June calls just expired worthless, and before entering a new position (potentially) I wanted to reach out to the community for some advice as to what timing (i.e. option date) I should choose. Or, should one leave this trade off the table for now (in terms of new positions)?
    • CF
      Chris F.
      21 May 2020 @ 21:42
      Last I looked the contract expiring June has a 20:1 risk/reward ratio.. priced pretty cheap if you think could hit zero in 30 days
    • SR
      Steve R.
      21 May 2020 @ 21:53
      The problem with options is the time decay which kills you as they approach expiry. Trade the Sep or Dec futures if you can, or use an ETF to express your view. Personally, I've exited my June expiry futures and will look to roll to September on a suitable opportunity.
    • AW
      Andrew W.
      21 May 2020 @ 22:36
      I think RP makes the same thesis regardless of whether we are talking about the 5 yr or 10 yr. The decision to use options on futures or the futures themselves are for your own risk/reward and too personal IMO. I'm just using the longer-dated futures which I view as free call options. By the way, you get POSITIVE CARRY on the 5 year and 10 year futures, and also the EURUSD futures, at the moment. Not sure why but I think it that has to do with the net position being against RP's thesis. And they're wrong. Rates can't rise. So take advantage of that.
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      21 May 2020 @ 23:35
      Thanks guys - very much appreciated.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:52
      Im thinking about re-loading too. We can afford to do this a few times and still make a lot of money.
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      22 May 2020 @ 03:39
      Thanks Raoul for the update.
    • EO
      Elena O.
      22 May 2020 @ 10:31
      Gurevich and a few others convinced that we might have curve steepening pricing in inflation expectations. How does this affect 5y trade?
  • MR
    Michael R.
    22 May 2020 @ 07:36
    Hi Raoul, great work. - what i noticed is ndx (cash and fut) does already have demark 13's. - weekly in nq1 and ndx is printing a seq this week with setup 7 behind (maybe we go to 9-13-9?). daily did a combo 13 yesterday and a sequential 13 on the 20th. btw: great interview with alex gurevich. absolutely love it! - let's see how that weekly combo 13i plays out in gdx. maybe this leads to some form of correction to get long there!? all the best from switzerland
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    22 May 2020 @ 03:48
    Understood about the debt deflation, Insolvency et all, but the main question to be answered is: - With further QE (I understand the Fed hasn't even started yet) keep equities up & reach to a higher level or that's not possible. Julian I understood thinks it is absolutely possible and even all time highs can be realized. I would love this particular point to be discussed please. Would the Nikkei '90 be an appropriate comparison? Was the JoB backstopping back then as the Fed has done & promises to continue to do so? Perhaps Julian's example of Iran's stock market further diverging from fundamentals due to printing be a better example of things to come? Thanks.
  • LH
    Luis H.
    22 May 2020 @ 00:09
    Fed Weekly Balance Sheet Wow graph on page 10 is very interesting. I would love to see it updated often.
  • JS
    John S.
    21 May 2020 @ 22:44
    Please change the colour scheme to make the charts bolder
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:51
      Agreed. Have put in the request.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      22 May 2020 @ 00:04
      Agreed, the charts are hard to read. Maybe a Black background on the charts with thicker lines and larger text sizing for labels etc. could help? I know this can be hard if you're zoomed out on a chart trying to capture longer term price action on a smaller time frame like the daily it can be hard to get all the info on a single chart. Maybe you could put those charts in a landscape orientation and move each chart on a single page. That way when we're viewing it on the website we don't have to worry about zooming in on the chart to see the numbers?
  • AS
    Armando S.
    21 May 2020 @ 19:46
    Small correction: Gates is no longer a board member of Berkshire (or msft) https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-gates-to-leave-boards-of-microsoft-and-berkshire-hathaway-11584135172
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:54
      Thanks. The theory should till hold though
  • AS
    Arpat S.
    21 May 2020 @ 20:45
    What a great update. Thanks!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:52
      :-)
  • JR
    James R.
    21 May 2020 @ 22:08
    Raoul, love when u commit to your calls!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 May 2020 @ 23:51
      Thanks.
  • JD
    Jeremy D.
    21 May 2020 @ 19:48
    I wonder if the dollar shortage could be sidestepped by moving in/out of BTC?

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Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

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Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

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