Small correction: Gates is no longer a board member of Berkshire (or msft) https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-gates-to-leave-boards-of-microsoft-and-berkshire-hathaway-11584135172

I wonder if the dollar shortage could be sidestepped by moving in/out of BTC?

Interesting update, thesis remains, little bit of coaching helps ; ) Means we are out of our 5 year bond call spread? Cant see real catalyst in next month or so. Markets numb, zomie-ing upwards thanks to PEP... cant print jobs I agree, but before market is able to see through... Maybe BTC and GOLD (silver) best safehouse there is right now, and they are on sale todat ; )

Hi all - Is the ZF (i.e. 5-year treasury options) trade still on? My June calls just expired worthless, and before entering a new position (potentially) I wanted to reach out to the community for some advice as to what timing (i.e. option date) I should choose. Or, should one leave this trade off the table for now (in terms of new positions)?

What a great update. Thanks!

Raoul, love when u commit to your calls!

Please change the colour scheme to make the charts bolder

Raoul first thanks for the frequent updates. I much appreciate knowing where you stand which can change in a fast pace environment like this. I know you're committed to your guns but what's a pairs trade if your wrong? Your long bonds, USD, Gold, BTC. Got all those. But let's say you are wrong? What should I be long in equities? As you know many experts including Julian and you have said the equity is not the economy. So is equity the Fed easing? As long as they ease some equity will go up. And if so, which equity? Amazon? If I was going to make a long equity bet, Amazon the grocery store which delivers to my house might be it but what do you say to this?

Fed Weekly Balance Sheet Wow graph on page 10 is very interesting. I would love to see it updated often.

Puts on GE for say October don't seem very expensive.. Is this a worthy trade?

Understood about the debt deflation, Insolvency et all, but the main question to be answered is: - With further QE (I understand the Fed hasn't even started yet) keep equities up & reach to a higher level or that's not possible. Julian I understood thinks it is absolutely possible and even all time highs can be realized. I would love this particular point to be discussed please. Would the Nikkei '90 be an appropriate comparison? Was the JoB backstopping back then as the Fed has done & promises to continue to do so? Perhaps Julian's example of Iran's stock market further diverging from fundamentals due to printing be a better example of things to come? Thanks.

Hi Raoul, new subscriber here. Thank you for sharing the analysis. It’s incredibly insightful, and learning a lot! Already have a gold and Bitcoin position, but interested in the bond play in anticipation of yields going to zero/negative. Is it sufficient to buy the TLT, or would you recommend buying actual bonds? Apologies if this is a stupid question, new to the bond market. Thanks!

You get a shiver in the dark, It's raining in the park, but meantime: South of the river, you stop and you hold everything. A band is blowin' Dixie, double-four time. You feel alright when you hear that music play. Thanks Sultan :-)

Hi Raoul, great work. - what i noticed is ndx (cash and fut) does already have demark 13's. - weekly in nq1 and ndx is printing a seq this week with setup 7 behind (maybe we go to 9-13-9?). daily did a combo 13 yesterday and a sequential 13 on the 20th. btw: great interview with alex gurevich. absolutely love it! - let's see how that weekly combo 13i plays out in gdx. maybe this leads to some form of correction to get long there!? all the best from switzerland

Russia just announced a full ban on BTC and other coins produced/bought in Russia or abroad. So it's now illegal and you can go to jail for owning bTC. Seems like other governments will follow...

Great read as always Raoul, thank you! Would you think me crazy if I was short Copper at the moment? Which I am!

Raoul, in your previous trading update you are short copper @ 5899. I use the HG futures, but what instrument do you use?

These GMI are fantastic, well researched, and you can follow the compelling logic of the argument! I learn so much withe each report. 1. Would it be worth while to add or report the counter argument and data against the thesis? These reports seem a Herculean effort so just a thought and I know your plate is overflowing. 2.I would LOVE an in-depth interview of you talking about your process. Is it formal, in-formal what habits do you have, would love to learn more about your mental macro models and work-flow. This is probably to broad a question or a request. I could tell you my approach to evaluating shortness of breathe but would be hard for me to share my mental models of cardiology, would just take too long. What every wisdom and models you could share you be fantastic!

Loud and clear. Thanks so much Raoul!

So clearly mapped out... Thanks Raoul, class as always!

Fantastic analysis! Thank you Raoul.. Any other suggestions on how to trade potential insolvency apart from long Bonds & dollars?

Great insight. I am long Bitcoin and looking to get into gold. Do you recommend the GLD etf or GDX etf or both? Seems like it's a good time to take a position in GLD, but GDX looks very hot right now. Would love to get your thoughts.

I echo's Mike S' point - would love to get the community's thoughts (and Raoul too if you're there ; ) on gold (as of today). It does seem hot at the moment, but Raoul's chart from way back (I think it was Raoul's chart) showed (based on the 1929 playbook) a complete vertical from here. Therefore, I'd think it may not be too late? Thoughts? Warm regards, Matt.

Great update. Not that I would know, but I think you're spot on with the Buffet Gates speculation. Thank you Raoul.

Bizarre - I'm looking at the AT&T "doom porn" chart on page 9 and comparing that to what Interactive Brokers shows me. After 1998 both the chart here and the chart that IB shows look the same. However, prior to 1998 IB shows the price generally being way higher than after, and with large vertical drops in '87, '92 and '98. It certainly doesn't show the low price increasing up into '98 as in the "doom porn" chart. Is the IB data just broken?

What is a popular platform to trade futures and currencies?

What's with the "Apocalypse in Spain" table which appears to be from https://themarketear.com/posts/cGA_mrJnvx , and is it legitimate? There are no units, title, or anything else other than numbers from the original source, and the number is 100x the number shown in other places such as https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/bankruptcies ... If it was legitimate I'd expect to be able to find something else on the internet reporting this number.

Permit me to note based on pattern recognition there have been 22 Bear Market RALLIES (+12% minimum gain) in the S&P 500 since 1929 and there have been 20 bull market BEGINNINGS since 1932. There is a non-random statistical difference between Bear Market RALLIES and Bull Market BEGINNINGS. To wit, 1. Bear Market rallies tend to exhibit declining volume characteristics relative to beginning Bull Markets. 2. Of the 22 Bear Market rallies, the five greatest average daily rate of change in volume into the top of the rally or to the first 42 days of rally (whichever comes first) was +11.42%. +6.91% and +5.19%, 4.78% and 4.59%. 3. Of the 20 Bull Market beginnings by day 42 the greatest average daily rate of change in volume into day 42 was +14.63%. The five greatest average increases in volume were +14.63%, +13.93%, +10.81%, +5.33%, +4.30%. 4. The Greatest average decrease in volume into the top of the Bear Market rally or to the first 42 days of rally (whichever comes first) was -34.82%. The five greatest average declines in volume were -34.82%, -27.11%, -15.94%, -12.92%, and -11.43%. 5. During Bull Market beginnngs, the greatest average decrease in volume into day 42 was -6.87%. The five greatest average declines in volume were -6.87%, -6.72%, -6.42% and -5.69% and -4.33%. 6. Through Friday our RALLY has generated an average decrease in volume of -12.31%. Never has a new bull market by day 42 generated a volume regression reading below -6.87%. Statistically speaking, the Volume action off the low informs a Bear Market Rally.

If the demand for dollars is on the increase, should we not re-load the Eurodollar trade?

To all those interested in buying real spot gold. You can use Crypto to do it. You can open an account with Paxos. https://www.paxos.com . Then you wire money into your account to buy PAXG. That will get you physical gold that is stored in a vault in London. That's the problem with Gold, you don't have direct access to it. Needs to be stored somewhere. UK government could still confiscate it. Unlike Bitcoin where you could have access to your wealth all in your head ( if you remember your private key that is).