Flash Update – August 18, 2020

Published on: August 18th, 2020

In this Flash Update, Raoul provides new recommendations on his trades for the DXY and copper.

Comments

  • SG
    Sam G.
    20 August 2020 @ 07:37
    Thanks for sharing. Guys could you please suggest how I could join slack group that I've read a few people mentioned? Cheers
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      21 August 2020 @ 03:14
      Sam, try this one https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-goz9mcz6-rtNRfPABgpwDrcVNQqqluQ
  • Ts
    Thordur s.
    19 August 2020 @ 08:50
    ThS if or when a strong US$ appears and presumably therewith a deflationary scenario, is there any juice left in long bonds ( TLT og TIPS) ?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 August 2020 @ 11:45
      Yes, that would push rates to zero
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    20 August 2020 @ 03:20
    Thanks for the update but I'm still struggling to understand the pivoting or not of your thesis and framework. Your framework has always been around a strong dollar for the chips to fall in the slots. Silver is more of a reflation trade (Julian's framework) and gold has been on both camps as it serves multiple purposes. Bitcoin is a separate trade all together. So I'm not sure now where is your head in terms of the strategic trading framework? A full review will be appreciated. Thanks again.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:27
    Thx for the flash update also a downer that both options trade recommendations look to expire at close to 100% loss of premium. The reflation printing narrative is strong. Do you mind sharing how you are getting exposure to btc? Margin on cme is too high for a meaningful position most brokers (binance,coinbase) been hacked and ppl lost millions of dollars, curious where you feel safe parking irresponsibly long money?
    • AA
      Arun A.
      18 August 2020 @ 23:53
      Matthew have you looked into hardware wallets for your cryptocurrency?
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      19 August 2020 @ 04:27
      no i have no idea what language you are speaking there Arun lol
    • CE
      Christoph E.
      19 August 2020 @ 06:57
      Hi Matthew, Grayscale products might be a fit for you. This way you do not have to manage your Bitcoin and Ethereum yourself and you do not have to worry how to protect them. There are even some Real Vision videos with Grayscale, e.g. https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/legitimizing-bitcoin-investment-with-crypto-access-products That said, I believe in holding the actual cryptocurrencies myself and use a hardware wallets as well. Popular brands are Ledger (I think this is what Raoul's using) and Trezor. I use and like both of them. Than again, I suggest to my family and friends to buy and hold a European equivalant to Grayscale, because they are less crypto savy (and we are European).
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      19 August 2020 @ 16:13
      Which European one Matthew? Only have bitcoinxb (swedish ETF which I use), but not sure enough re underlying to gain big exposure here
  • MJ
    Mike J.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:33
    Raoul, Thanks for having the balls to share your thoughts and trades. I am learning a lot from you and making a lot of money on Bitcoin, SLV, and GLD. Bummer the Dollar did not work out, but big things are coming! I also learn a lot from you when things don't go your way. Its part of the game. Its real. Not everyone has the balls to take a position and share it.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      19 August 2020 @ 13:31
      Agree. Well said. Thanks for all you're doing Raoul. Learning a lot.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:53
    Quick clarifying question, Raoul. I noticed your "If DXY crosses 91, I will liquidate the following positions" list did NOT include EUR. Do you plan to stick with the Euro short?
    • SN
      SAT N.
      18 August 2020 @ 22:32
      I was puzzled by it too ..
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 August 2020 @ 10:08
      My mistake... it include Euro too.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:28
    Raoul define the dxy breaking 91. Pass below once? Close below once? Close below for several days? Pass below by 1%? Etc Thanks
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      19 August 2020 @ 07:15
      Mark, Raoul commented on slack channel re his DXY stop the following: "Also, my stops arent one touch... I let it conform a bit to avoid false breaks (or less of them) as they are fucking miserable"
  • AP
    Adam P.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:22
    I think your analysis is correct w/r/t the doom loop, etc. That scenario is wildly unacceptable. Everything will be thrown at the problem and laws will be changed, if necessary, to ensure it doesn't play out like that.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:07
    In my view shorting copper is a definite mistake. If anything, I would go long copper. Home building is spiking, which may continue as too much money is chasing too little real assets. Combine this with huge momentum in electrification of automobiles, which require copper for the electric motors, and you have yourself a bull market. Not to mention, inflation and supply disruptions will drive up prices. Go long.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:51
    Raoul, I believe you’ll be right on the USD, but haven’t had the conviction to follow you into the trade (thankfully). Thanks for the update, and for being open with the process. Now I’m gonna go put on a very small long position and see what happens....
    • np
      nick p.
      18 August 2020 @ 21:58
      i added yesterday... with that being said, i got completely out a couple of months ago and took a small starter two weeks ago for another stab.
    • np
      nick p.
      18 August 2020 @ 21:59
      correction.. *got out of my shorter term positions. i have some long term strangles that i have been holding for quite sometime.
  • JH
    Jon H.
    18 August 2020 @ 21:54
    You presented solid arguments for USD-appreciation. Useful. Anyway, I can't wait for the next video recorded from under your desk 😉
  • IB
    Ivan B.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:24
    Raoul what do you think is the reason the USD thesis didn't play out? Is it timing and you were a bit early? Did you underestimate the Fed's efforts? You would think that because of less trade companies should have had issues with servicing their debt, but it doesn't look like it yet...
  • JM
    John M.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:52
    Hey Raoul - any thoughts on how the expiration CARES act may influence markets here? I've been surprised there hasn't been more reaction in markets, but am holding dxy shorts off for now given the uncertainty. But I really don't understand how the fiscal vs monetary is influencing currency. Thx
  • Mt
    Miami t.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:49
    I always see you smiling and acting like trading doesnt really get to you, but if Im not mistaking this goddamn dollar debacle got you... For me this one also was quite painful, not just financially but it was such a perfect setup with 95% of the market being bearish on the USD. I loved it, but Im out.. I reversed last week, but I still wouldnt mind if my new stop got hit and I can reverse again....
  • BF
    Brad F.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:49
    Join the dollar conversation in the unofficial RV Fans Slack. Open to all pro members. https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-goz9mcz6-rtNRfPABgpwDrcVNQqqluQ
  • MA
    Majed A.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:35
    Thank you for the update, one question Raoul, wouldn’t you be curious to know WHY your Dollar analysis didn’t work?
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:28
    Thanks for the update. Appreciate it. I had been in the trade as well for some time but have cut losses earlier. This had been somewhat painful since I leveraged it just a little bit to much in retrospect. But then again Bitcoin, Ethereum (and a future with an definition basket underlying) covered my losses und continue to perform well.