Flash Update – August 18, 2020

Published on: August 18th, 2020

In this Flash Update, Raoul provides new recommendations on his trades for the DXY and copper.

Comments

  • SG
    Sam G.
    20 August 2020 @ 07:37
    Thanks for sharing. Guys could you please suggest how I could join slack group that I've read a few people mentioned? Cheers
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      21 August 2020 @ 03:14
      Sam, try this one https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-goz9mcz6-rtNRfPABgpwDrcVNQqqluQ
  • Ts
    Thordur s.
    19 August 2020 @ 08:50
    ThS if or when a strong US$ appears and presumably therewith a deflationary scenario, is there any juice left in long bonds ( TLT og TIPS) ?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 August 2020 @ 11:45
      Yes, that would push rates to zero
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    20 August 2020 @ 03:20
    Thanks for the update but I'm still struggling to understand the pivoting or not of your thesis and framework. Your framework has always been around a strong dollar for the chips to fall in the slots. Silver is more of a reflation trade (Julian's framework) and gold has been on both camps as it serves multiple purposes. Bitcoin is a separate trade all together. So I'm not sure now where is your head in terms of the strategic trading framework? A full review will be appreciated. Thanks again.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:27
    Thx for the flash update also a downer that both options trade recommendations look to expire at close to 100% loss of premium. The reflation printing narrative is strong. Do you mind sharing how you are getting exposure to btc? Margin on cme is too high for a meaningful position most brokers (binance,coinbase) been hacked and ppl lost millions of dollars, curious where you feel safe parking irresponsibly long money?
    • AA
      Arun A.
      18 August 2020 @ 23:53
      Matthew have you looked into hardware wallets for your cryptocurrency?
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      19 August 2020 @ 04:27
      no i have no idea what language you are speaking there Arun lol
    • CE
      Christoph E.
      19 August 2020 @ 06:57
      Hi Matthew, Grayscale products might be a fit for you. This way you do not have to manage your Bitcoin and Ethereum yourself and you do not have to worry how to protect them. There are even some Real Vision videos with Grayscale, e.g. https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/legitimizing-bitcoin-investment-with-crypto-access-products That said, I believe in holding the actual cryptocurrencies myself and use a hardware wallets as well. Popular brands are Ledger (I think this is what Raoul's using) and Trezor. I use and like both of them. Than again, I suggest to my family and friends to buy and hold a European equivalant to Grayscale, because they are less crypto savy (and we are European).
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      19 August 2020 @ 16:13
      Which European one Matthew? Only have bitcoinxb (swedish ETF which I use), but not sure enough re underlying to gain big exposure here
  • MJ
    Mike J.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:33
    Raoul, Thanks for having the balls to share your thoughts and trades. I am learning a lot from you and making a lot of money on Bitcoin, SLV, and GLD. Bummer the Dollar did not work out, but big things are coming! I also learn a lot from you when things don't go your way. Its part of the game. Its real. Not everyone has the balls to take a position and share it.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      19 August 2020 @ 13:31
      Agree. Well said. Thanks for all you're doing Raoul. Learning a lot.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:53
    Quick clarifying question, Raoul. I noticed your "If DXY crosses 91, I will liquidate the following positions" list did NOT include EUR. Do you plan to stick with the Euro short?
    • SN
      SAT N.
      18 August 2020 @ 22:32
      I was puzzled by it too ..
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 August 2020 @ 10:08
      My mistake... it include Euro too.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:28
    Raoul define the dxy breaking 91. Pass below once? Close below once? Close below for several days? Pass below by 1%? Etc Thanks
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      19 August 2020 @ 07:15
      Mark, Raoul commented on slack channel re his DXY stop the following: "Also, my stops arent one touch... I let it conform a bit to avoid false breaks (or less of them) as they are fucking miserable"
  • AP
    Adam P.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:22
    I think your analysis is correct w/r/t the doom loop, etc. That scenario is wildly unacceptable. Everything will be thrown at the problem and laws will be changed, if necessary, to ensure it doesn't play out like that.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:07
    In my view shorting copper is a definite mistake. If anything, I would go long copper. Home building is spiking, which may continue as too much money is chasing too little real assets. Combine this with huge momentum in electrification of automobiles, which require copper for the electric motors, and you have yourself a bull market. Not to mention, inflation and supply disruptions will drive up prices. Go long.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:51
    Raoul, I believe you’ll be right on the USD, but haven’t had the conviction to follow you into the trade (thankfully). Thanks for the update, and for being open with the process. Now I’m gonna go put on a very small long position and see what happens....
    • NP
      Nick P.
      18 August 2020 @ 21:58
      i added yesterday... with that being said, i got completely out a couple of months ago and took a small starter two weeks ago for another stab.
    • NP
      Nick P.
      18 August 2020 @ 21:59
      correction.. *got out of my shorter term positions. i have some long term strangles that i have been holding for quite sometime.
  • JH
    Jon H.
    18 August 2020 @ 21:54
    You presented solid arguments for USD-appreciation. Useful. Anyway, I can't wait for the next video recorded from under your desk 😉
  • IB
    Ivan B.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:24
    Raoul what do you think is the reason the USD thesis didn't play out? Is it timing and you were a bit early? Did you underestimate the Fed's efforts? You would think that because of less trade companies should have had issues with servicing their debt, but it doesn't look like it yet...
  • JM
    John M.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:52
    Hey Raoul - any thoughts on how the expiration CARES act may influence markets here? I've been surprised there hasn't been more reaction in markets, but am holding dxy shorts off for now given the uncertainty. But I really don't understand how the fiscal vs monetary is influencing currency. Thx
  • ip
    ivo p.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:49
    I always see you smiling and acting like trading doesnt really get to you, but if Im not mistaking this goddamn dollar debacle got you... For me this one also was quite painful, not just financially but it was such a perfect setup with 95% of the market being bearish on the USD. I loved it, but Im out.. I reversed last week, but I still wouldnt mind if my new stop got hit and I can reverse again....
  • BF
    Brad F.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:49
    Join the dollar conversation in the unofficial RV Fans Slack. Open to all pro members. https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-goz9mcz6-rtNRfPABgpwDrcVNQqqluQ
  • MA
    Majed A.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:35
    Thank you for the update, one question Raoul, wouldn’t you be curious to know WHY your Dollar analysis didn’t work?
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:28
    Thanks for the update. Appreciate it. I had been in the trade as well for some time but have cut losses earlier. This had been somewhat painful since I leveraged it just a little bit to much in retrospect. But then again Bitcoin, Ethereum (and a future with an definition basket underlying) covered my losses und continue to perform well.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.