Flash Update – August 2, 2019

Published on: August 2nd, 2019

Julian felt vindicated by his assertion that the Fed would disappoint market expectations at the FOMC meeting on 31st July. Unfortunately, that lasted barely 12 hours before Trump’s trade escalation superseded the Fed’s muddled policy prescriptions. Cut all tactical short fixed income trades.


  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    2 August 2019 @ 18:24
    I don't think Trump and the Fed work against. Stakes are two high for a playground war. I am wondering if Trump has not become an unconventional monetary policy tool to manage expectations. They don't need to pay the cuts and the bond market behaves. The goal, in my opinion, is to keep oil below the 60 mark and a strong dollar to reduce speculation abroad and wait to see Saudi's surrender their assets and Asia collapse Q3 2019. Then fuelling the world with cheap dollar would not create so much speculative behaviour abroad. Let's see.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      4 August 2019 @ 03:20
      What ever you think or not is not of my interest
  • RM
    Richard M.
    2 August 2019 @ 19:22
    Julian, thanks for the timely update. Very clear and concise, well done!
  • AM
    Artur M.
    2 August 2019 @ 20:30
    Thanks for update Artur @Ar2go2 (twitter)
  • RM
    R M.
    2 August 2019 @ 22:30
    Thanks to both of you for the flash updates! Excellent! And actually a short term tbt trade now might not be a bad idea for a bounce, we come a long way rapidly....?
  • BR
    Boyd R.
    3 August 2019 @ 04:18
    What does gold do if USDCNH breaks 7 - USD must rise - do they rise together ?
  • CS
    C S.
    3 August 2019 @ 07:22
    How does this change thoughts on USD projection? https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Competitive%20Dollar%20for%20Jobs%20and%20Prosperity%20Act%20FINAL.pdf
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      10 August 2019 @ 22:16
      CS. Thanks for this its clearly interesting if it ever gets any legs. But for now I would just watch and wait. That said clearly the US is getting increasingly upset by the dollar's strength. Hence, my preference to avoid the dollar as a trade.
  • RM
    R M.
    7 August 2019 @ 17:30
    August 7. There is a ton of macro going on. How about you guys do a quick video, discussion, podcast, whatever??? Be good to hear your thoughts.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      10 August 2019 @ 22:10
      RM check out our latest videos and let me know if you have any questions.
  • JK
    James K.
    7 August 2019 @ 22:39
    Will you be recommending a steepener trade at some point?