Flash Update – December 4, 2020

Published on: December 4th, 2020

The reflation story is picking up a head of steam. Some action is required, especially in currencies and precious metals. For good order, stops and targets have been tweaked in existing positions to align them with developments since Julian’s last In Focus. Everything is consistent with the orientation analysis of the Deep Dive last weekend.

Comments

  • JS
    J S.
    7 December 2020 @ 14:52
    Really appreciate your comments. Do you worry that short USD, long reflexive has become a consensus trade? Some parts of it taken to a extreme (COT positioning). Thank you!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 December 2020 @ 18:10
      With regard to this, in a morning chat with JB this morning and this idea did come up. I think COT is only a sample of real fx market positioning, but we notice that a number of banks have recently come round to our way of thinking on this. And there are mixed messages on whether there is a chance of a funding squeeze over year end. So whether you still want to be in this trade over year end depends on whether you are taking a long term view or more of a trading view.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    7 December 2020 @ 09:53
    Thank you Julian! Great stuff.
  • JM
    Joeri M.
    5 December 2020 @ 10:29
    Hi Julian, I have a question regarding your view on gold, silver and the mining stocks. In the first half of 2016, the gold and silver price increased sharply. In the second half of 2016, interest rates started to rise and gold got crushed. You got that completely right in 2016. I'm wondering now why gold wouldn't react the same this time as it did in 2016. If interest rates start to rise again, why wouldn't gold start to decline, just like it did in the second half of 2016? Real interest rates are now already extremely low...
    • PT
      Pradeep T.
      5 December 2020 @ 12:34
      Julian mentioned that Fed will be forced to do a yield curve control to ensure that rates don't raise (otherwise govt/corporate debt will be a burden)... which implies that Fed gives up on taming inflation; and so the bull case for gold.
    • SC
      Sanjeev C.
      6 December 2020 @ 00:15
      Gold is more correlated with real rates, which is: nominal(market rates) minus inflation. So it depends on extent of change relative to inflation
    • JM
      Joeri M.
      6 December 2020 @ 18:24
      Hi Pradeep and Sanjeev, Thanks for your answer. I understand the ycc argument and this is long term bullish gold indeed. However, I'm worried about the time between now and when we'll get ycc. Rising nominal rates will probably also lead to rising real rates since real rates are already very low. Once ycc is active, rising inflation expectations will lower real rates again. So long-term I'm bullish, but short term I'm in doubt with regard to the fundamentals. For those interested, I wrote an article on the technical aspect of gold. Gold always shows the same pattern once it breaks all-time highs. We saw it in 1978, 2007 and 2010 for gold in the us dollar. We saw the same these last few years for gold in the euro and GBP. I made a historical analysis in the following article: https://en.theadaptive-investor.com/post/dream-scenario-in-gold-is-starting-to-unfold The technical picture looks perfect for me, I'm however not certain about the short term fundamental case for gold...
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      7 December 2020 @ 09:45
      I share your concerns on the short term Joeri. Hoping it does pull back hard for a nice buying opportunity. Will read your article. Thanks for posting the link.
  • MC
    Marcin C.
    6 December 2020 @ 15:58
    Hello I understand the logic behind commodities being good deflationary trades with a weakening dollar. The problem being that for gold and silver the correlations vs dollar have shifted from highly negative to postive recently (0,50 for last 30d) meaning usd down, gold/silver down. It seems to be connected with rising yields for us treasuries recently. With rising real rates gold is not a good investment.
  • JK
    James K.
    4 December 2020 @ 21:34
    Silver, 2nd 1/3 buy @ $22- ? The lowest recent low I show on Bloomberg is on 11/30 is $22.59- ?
    • JL
      J L.
      5 December 2020 @ 10:13
      21.9 cash silver 22.005 first future
  • JK
    James K.
    4 December 2020 @ 21:39
    Julian/Harry .... thoughts either way on PDBC .... ? TIA
    • JK
      James K.
      5 December 2020 @ 02:05
      BTW, that’s a commodity ETF
  • JC
    Jey C.
    5 December 2020 @ 00:33
    Raoul made a good point in the last conversation regarding the perceived conflict in views... its mainly a timing difference... JB has a shorter outlook and RP is looking out 6-12 further in time. As for platforms.. TastyWorks is excellent in all regards but I am goingnto open an Interactive Brokers account to grab access to more obscure instruments. Looking forward to the December conversation... what a year it has been. What a group to be a part of!
  • GS
    Gyorgy S.
    4 December 2020 @ 23:24
    As there are more and more people from overseas here and everyone is focused on return, something to add...as obvious as it sounds: If you're investing in USD but you're spending in other currencies (CNY in my case), this is a good spot to think about hedging your currency risk as if Julian is right things can get nasty! Even in a range bound DXY environment of last few months, I could have lost over 8% over a few months as USD.CNY went from over 7 to 6.5 - if I didn't hedge (using CNY futures).
  • WM
    Wai M.
    4 December 2020 @ 16:30
    how to sell DXY?
    • BM
      Brent M.
      4 December 2020 @ 16:41
      I'm wondering the same thing. Also, wondering what platform is recommended to take a EURUSD or USDBRL Position? I know Raoul commented on one a few months back, but I can't seem to find that comment. Can anyone advise on the best trading platform for such trades? My current trading platform only lets me trade equities, Etf's, and options. I couldn't figure out how to just buy the Nikkei, so I bought a JPN Nikkei 400 ETF. I would love to be able to take positions more exactly to the ones Julian and Raoul are posting. What platform offers this? As a bonus, it would be nice to have a leverage option as well as one can do with FTX for Crypto trading. Taing a little leverage with managed risk through utilizing their stop loss targets would amplify the trade returns. Currently not able to do this.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      4 December 2020 @ 17:23
      Re Brent M's question, I use Interactive brokers who have a BRE future. Its quite a small tick size so relatively comfortable to use. The obvious alternative is to use the Brazilian equity ETFs.
    • GS
      Gyorgy S.
      4 December 2020 @ 23:06
      DXY: DX futures (on ICE) ara available on Interactive Brokers (after updating permissions) - data can be purchased separately if needed (they only provide delayed and ICE is a bit expensive if only used occasionally). This can be leveraged of course. Although ICE doesn't seem to publish static margin requirements, only their risk model, currently on IB the initial margin requirement is $2300 for a contract (current month worth $90735 at the moment), commission at $2.2. DX futures options are also available but I think I would steer clear of them considering timeframes are questionable with too many dependencies. Alternatively the most popular seems to be the UUP ETF or options or it's short variant UDN. BRE: There is one ETF I just found (out of curiosity as I'm already overweight EM and like Harry said BRE futures are probably a better way) called BZF by Wisdomtree..but seems like it's small ($23M) and questionable liquidity with a relatively high (0.45%) management fee. I previously held the Wisdomtree emerging market strategy ETF (CEW) that holds Brazilian real, Mexican peso, CNY, IDR....etc. Relatively liquid (although not like FX or futures) and has options...if you're looking for a more diversified EM/USD option.
  • ly
    lena y.
    4 December 2020 @ 20:53
    I have to say this has been a good year! For me spiked up my usual portfolio with a little crypto improves my performance and I thank both Raoul and Julian for it! Happy Holidays gentlemen!
  • BK
    Brian K.
    4 December 2020 @ 18:23
    I've used the Sprott trusts for trading positions in silver and gold in the past. Unfortunately, they do not have a pure platinum trust (paired with palladium). Does anyone have any experience or thoughts on Aberdeen's physical platinum trust (PPLT)?
    • cd
      chris d.
      4 December 2020 @ 18:47
      Hi Brian. I have been in and out of it a couple of times. Its seems relatively liquid and as you've probably checked trades close to the platinum spot
    • BK
      Brian K.
      4 December 2020 @ 19:47
      Thanks Chris D.
  • SC
    Sanjeev C.
    4 December 2020 @ 19:27
    Thanks for the update, @Julian. I am new to RV Pro and wondering about your thoughts on GDXJ v/s GDX? Not worth the volatility?
  • cd
    chris d.
    4 December 2020 @ 18:45
    Thanks Julian. great update. just wondering though if you have any preferred commodity ETF's. on one video someone mentioned a metals ITF, but i can't find the reference again. Do you know of it or another? Chris
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    4 December 2020 @ 15:18
    As long as I have been a Pro Member (April 2020) Raoul and Julian have opposite views: Long USD vs Short USD, Long Bonds vs not liking bonds, Selling GLD&GDX vs buying it. (Almost) All-in BTC vs thinking governments will step in and ban it. The list is longer but so far Julian is killing it. Raoul has mainly be very successful on his crypto trades.
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      4 December 2020 @ 16:36
      Long almost any risk asset has been favorable since the March bottom. Julian definitely nailed it with the anti-USD/reflation trade especially with Silver and short USD. Raoul while slower on GLD/GDX/Silver did take positions on those long. Short USD has been painful but definitely made up with long BTC/ETH. Long bonds not as bad but still negative for now. In aggregate both have done well since the bottom. Moving forward I think the risk is we go parabolic in all risk markets setting up a potential bust.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      4 December 2020 @ 17:25
      Exactly how my thoughts are evolving Charlie H. Thing is, the key difference between JB and RP is what happens after that bust. JB would argue that we will get more of the same stimulus and extend and pretend and that it will be successful in reflating markets.
  • RL
    Robert L.
    4 December 2020 @ 16:36
    Excellent paper, thanks Sir!

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.