Exactly how my thoughts are evolving Charlie H. Thing is, the key difference between JB and RP is what happens after that bust. JB would argue that we will get more of the same stimulus and extend and pretend and that it will be successful in reflating markets.

Long almost any risk asset has been favorable since the March bottom. Julian definitely nailed it with the anti-USD/reflation trade especially with Silver and short USD. Raoul while slower on GLD/GDX/Silver did take positions on those long. Short USD has been painful but definitely made up with long BTC/ETH. Long bonds not as bad but still negative for now. In aggregate both have done well since the bottom. Moving forward I think the risk is we go parabolic in all risk markets setting up a potential bust.

DXY: DX futures (on ICE) ara available on Interactive Brokers (after updating permissions) - data can be purchased separately if needed (they only provide delayed and ICE is a bit expensive if only used occasionally). This can be leveraged of course. Although ICE doesn't seem to publish static margin requirements, only their risk model, currently on IB the initial margin requirement is $2300 for a contract (current month worth $90735 at the moment), commission at $2.2. DX futures options are also available but I think I would steer clear of them considering timeframes are questionable with too many dependencies. Alternatively the most popular seems to be the UUP ETF or options or it's short variant UDN. BRE: There is one ETF I just found (out of curiosity as I'm already overweight EM and like Harry said BRE futures are probably a better way) called BZF by Wisdomtree..but seems like it's small ($23M) and questionable liquidity with a relatively high (0.45%) management fee. I previously held the Wisdomtree emerging market strategy ETF (CEW) that holds Brazilian real, Mexican peso, CNY, IDR....etc. Relatively liquid (although not like FX or futures) and has options...if you're looking for a more diversified EM/USD option.

Re Brent M's question, I use Interactive brokers who have a BRE future. Its quite a small tick size so relatively comfortable to use. The obvious alternative is to use the Brazilian equity ETFs.

I'm wondering the same thing. Also, wondering what platform is recommended to take a EURUSD or USDBRL Position? I know Raoul commented on one a few months back, but I can't seem to find that comment. Can anyone advise on the best trading platform for such trades? My current trading platform only lets me trade equities, Etf's, and options. I couldn't figure out how to just buy the Nikkei, so I bought a JPN Nikkei 400 ETF. I would love to be able to take positions more exactly to the ones Julian and Raoul are posting. What platform offers this? As a bonus, it would be nice to have a leverage option as well as one can do with FTX for Crypto trading. Taing a little leverage with managed risk through utilizing their stop loss targets would amplify the trade returns. Currently not able to do this.

Thanks Chris D.

Hi Brian. I have been in and out of it a couple of times. Its seems relatively liquid and as you've probably checked trades close to the platinum spot

21.9 cash silver 22.005 first future

BTW, that’s a commodity ETF

I share your concerns on the short term Joeri. Hoping it does pull back hard for a nice buying opportunity. Will read your article. Thanks for posting the link.

Hi Pradeep and Sanjeev, Thanks for your answer. I understand the ycc argument and this is long term bullish gold indeed. However, I'm worried about the time between now and when we'll get ycc. Rising nominal rates will probably also lead to rising real rates since real rates are already very low. Once ycc is active, rising inflation expectations will lower real rates again. So long-term I'm bullish, but short term I'm in doubt with regard to the fundamentals. For those interested, I wrote an article on the technical aspect of gold. Gold always shows the same pattern once it breaks all-time highs. We saw it in 1978, 2007 and 2010 for gold in the us dollar. We saw the same these last few years for gold in the euro and GBP. I made a historical analysis in the following article: https://en.theadaptive-investor.com/post/dream-scenario-in-gold-is-starting-to-unfold The technical picture looks perfect for me, I'm however not certain about the short term fundamental case for gold...

Gold is more correlated with real rates, which is: nominal(market rates) minus inflation. So it depends on extent of change relative to inflation

Julian mentioned that Fed will be forced to do a yield curve control to ensure that rates don't raise (otherwise govt/corporate debt will be a burden)... which implies that Fed gives up on taming inflation; and so the bull case for gold.

With regard to this, in a morning chat with JB this morning and this idea did come up. I think COT is only a sample of real fx market positioning, but we notice that a number of banks have recently come round to our way of thinking on this. And there are mixed messages on whether there is a chance of a funding squeeze over year end. So whether you still want to be in this trade over year end depends on whether you are taking a long term view or more of a trading view.