Flash Update – February 1, 2021

Published on: February 1st, 2021

Amid the sound and fury of the video game battle that has become GameStop trading, there are significant warning signs about market structure. Old hands are reminiscing about 1987 and sharing 1999/2000 anecdotes. VaR shocks never come directly from the obvious source; they always come out of left field but expose vulnerabilities that are already endogenous to markets. Tighten stops and prepare a shorting strategy.


  • JU
    John U.
    1 February 2021 @ 21:10
    Thank you for the update Julian.
  • JP
    J P.
    1 February 2021 @ 21:25
    What is a “two liner”? Please clarify and define. Thank you for the timely update Julian!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 February 2021 @ 14:07
      A very brief report. So for example, "Things look bad for the following reasons. So sell xx with the following stop."
    • jl
      john l.
      2 February 2021 @ 03:05
      He means his trigger finger to go short is very itchy and can go at any minute. He probably is not going to send out a 12 page report. It could be just a two sentence alert to go short as time is of the essence. As you may have noticed the market can many times go up via the escalator and down by the elevator. Substantial market drops can happen in a matter of literally hours.
    • JP
      J P.
      2 February 2021 @ 03:00
      Willie J, thanks for chiming in. I googled “two liner” before asking to no success. Everything else is clear. Cheers.
    • WJ
      Willie J.
      1 February 2021 @ 21:44
      And, of course, have some dry powder ready to deploy. Not the time to be all-in at the moment as you will need the flexibility to buy at short notice when liquidity will be low and margin calls will force selling
    • WJ
      Willie J.
      1 February 2021 @ 21:42
      Do your homework - going equity short will likely mean DXY and TLT long and NASDAQ 100 short - make sure you know the tools at your disposal to act on these. As a retail trader, not all platforms offer the same access to calls / puts, ETF’s, shorting stock, etc.
  • WJ
    Willie J.
    1 February 2021 @ 21:40
    Always enjoy and appreciate your updates. Has been a good 12 months, so will keep at it listening to your input.
  • TR
    Theodore R.
    2 February 2021 @ 02:29
    Julian thanks. Laughed so hard with the Belgian dentist analogy. It’s been such a long time since I heard that.
  • LC
    Lilly C.
    2 February 2021 @ 06:58
    Does everyone here get an alert via email etc when there’s a flash update? I don’t and do not know unless I check. Thanks in advance for responding.
    • EC
      Edward C.
      4 February 2021 @ 16:31
      Yep, I contacted RV about this a long time ago. Milton mentioned on chat all updates should have been reset to my existing email. However, only emails/alerts I now get are in relation to the exchange. Nothing else.
    • MS
      Martin S.
      4 February 2021 @ 15:44
      @Milton: I wrote you a separate email. I'd like to get a notification mail as well.
    • CK
      C K.
      2 February 2021 @ 23:30
      I never get an update either
    • JK
      James K.
      2 February 2021 @ 20:44
      It also stopped for me a while ago ....Thanks
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      2 February 2021 @ 11:18
      I'll check it out for you guys as you might have unsubscribe din the past and message you privately.
    • JL
      J L.
      2 February 2021 @ 09:17
      It stopped working for me last year so I had to email RV for it to be reactivated
  • AH
    Andre H.
    2 February 2021 @ 09:00
    "VaR shocks never come directly from the obvious source; they always come out of left field but expose vulnerabilities that are already endogenous to markets" - Pure gold!
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    2 February 2021 @ 21:07
    Hi Julian, In case of a pullback, is one possible of magnitude more than 50 percent? Where markets get back to their appropriate valuations? Or the Fed would step in beforehand as stop the crash like they did in March 2020? Appreciate your thoughts. Thank you
  • CK
    C K.
    2 February 2021 @ 23:35
    A two liner is perfect but an email or other form of notification for these updates would be great too - I always need to check and occasionally miss new reports by a day or two. On a different but slightly similar note, notifications like the ones on the exchange would be great for the video comments section. Thanks.
    • RG
      Razmig G.
      3 February 2021 @ 04:44
      Same here. Best to send an email notification for subscribers when Julian & Raoul make a post. Would be highly valuable
  • KP
    Kash P.
    3 February 2021 @ 09:48
  • AM
    Alex M.
    4 February 2021 @ 00:33
    VIX is back down ~22, I know you mentioned SPX Implied vol wasn’t representative of what you were seeing in single names that concerned you. Could you please go through this in this months insider talk?