Flash Update – February 29, 2020

Published on: February 29th, 2020

Raoul wants to take some profits and establish some guidance as to what to expect next in the largest Black Swan event in all our lifetimes…

Comments

  • ml
    mark l.
    5 March 2020 @ 13:09
    I still can’t open this on my iPad. It’s a week now since this issue started and no response.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      19 March 2020 @ 02:06
      Did you try to reinstall the app? It worked for me.
  • AG
    Ashish G.
    14 March 2020 @ 19:10
    Raoul per your twitter update what should we buying to reenter the trade for fed to take rates to zero? Are calls on Eurodollars the recommendation again? Thank you for everything! 🙏🏿
  • HE
    Henry E.
    10 March 2020 @ 00:02
    Raoul's said: ".... "The US Government failed to address the virus seriously and one of the biggest political mistakes in all of history has been set. This has cost Trump the election, already." As an ardent Trump supporter, I could NOT agree more. This hubris exceeds even George W. Bush's truly spectacular blonder of "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" (re: the Iraq War) on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln. Remember this day... It will NOT be long before the markets come to realize the same - and TOTALLY PUKE!!!
  • PM
    Philip M.
    5 March 2020 @ 10:39
    the FOMO is strong with this one... was a great trade nevertheless
  • MB
    Mark B.
    2 March 2020 @ 01:15
    I too will sell TLT to be on the safe side. I’ve been burnt too much in the past waiting until I understood things better… I’m assuming flipping TLT to ultra-short treasuries will be ok. I am wondering though why it doesn’t make sense to hold TLT for longer. The expectation is that the Fed is going to cut further - perhaps by as much as 50 basis points later in the month and then more later as the crises worsens. Won’t this cause TLT to keep going up? I know this will be a dumb question for many… TLT was previously going down when there was talk of reflation. Why does it make sense to sell TLT now?
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      2 March 2020 @ 02:38
      My 2 cents: Theoretically, if interest rate drops go far enough, it should bring demand in the economy forward and push long rates up (increased inflation and growth expectations). However, I believe in the past it's taken as much as 500 basis point drop in the fed rate to combat a recession, but they only have 155 to the zero bound now. Just going to zero may not be enough to raise growth and inflation expectations (thus not steepening). Furthermore, monetary stimulus is ineffectual in a demand / supply shock, which I believe is deflationary (overall). If you see significant fiscal stimulus come in after monetary easing, it will likely cause a bear steepening of the yield curve IMO. All that being said, I think the idea is that TLT is a little overbought here, and if there is a rate cut, there are two factors that could temporarly push rates higher. I think Raoul is just trading around his core thesis though, and essentially believes the FED is (and will be) behind the curve, and thus rates will continue to fall as investors reach for safe assets.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      2 March 2020 @ 02:46
      And when I say overbought, I mean from a technical perspective. RSI, standard deviation of move, etc.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      2 March 2020 @ 06:51
      Hi Mark, I think the idea is that market tends to run ahead of itself and according to Raoul there will be a pull back. The way I understand it, market is pricing 4 cuts this year and potentially a 50pb first cut. But if Fed cuts only 25bp and make more hawkish statement than markets expectations? All fixed income market will correct to reflect that in the short term. Because we had a good run it makes sense to lock in some gain now and wait to re-enter after the correction. Of course, the Fed could be super dovish and meet market expectations and we might not get a chance to re-enter and miss out on some more gains. Nothing is given, but probabilities for a correction are there. How you trade it is up to you. You might not want to trade in and out of your trades and don't mind a short term pull back. Long term it's still a good trade. I for example have to take into account my capital gain tax which is 47% for me, so ideally I would like to sell after holding a position for more than a year but it doesn't always work out this way.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      2 March 2020 @ 08:35
      Thanks both Bevan and Ivan - I appreciate your comments. I do also agree that a pullback is possible much like gold has pulled back when it appears that everything says it should keep going up. I like to think of myself as being a long-term investor, however it feels like current circumstances make this hard to do. Trying to be logical when illogic appears to be abound, can turn out to be expensive… ;) I do at the same time wonder what the implications are of getting in and out ETF’s frequently are. When, for instance, do tax offices decide it is trading vs investing? Probably something to discuss with my accountant.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 March 2020 @ 12:08
      Exactly Ivan. Thank you.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      2 March 2020 @ 15:18
      No problem Mark. I'm assuming you're in the US. Look up long term vs short term capital gains. I believe in general, if you hold a security for less than a year it is considered as short term (and lumped in with income). If you sell at a loss and buy within a month, it's a wash sale and the duration of ownership is additive, I think. If you sell and make money even if you re-buy within a month, it's taxable.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      3 March 2020 @ 00:05
      Thanks Raoul, Ivan, and Bevan! I was up in the very early hours of the morning and got out before the price dropped. Bevan, I'm in Australia but lived for a long time in the U.S...
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      3 March 2020 @ 02:11
      Mark, I am in Australia too. If you hold an asset less than a year, 100% of your gains are taxed at you tax rate. If you hold it more than a year, only 50% of your gains are taxed. It makes sense for us to hold for a year if possible, but it's a balancing act as you can miss out on gains... Good-luck with your investing!
  • JF
    John F.
    3 March 2020 @ 01:44
    Hi Raoul, just joined RV Pro and have had a read through this update. Can you give more details on the trades you placed for AUD, KRW and Copper. Are these futures contracts, what exchange are you trading on? Thanks for the fantastic ED Dec 2020 trade -- will await your guidance on when to get back in (hopefully there will that 60 tick correction!)
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    2 March 2020 @ 22:09
    I just have to add my thanks for these trade ideas and frameworks. I wasn't totally comfortable going full in on the ED futures in mid-Jan, but added some options on TLT in early Feb when the market was back on its reflation optimism kick...incredible return so....THANKS Raoul! I'm a bit late to the game on MI, but looking at the Sell Copper rec from back in August. If things continue to go south, I would like to have some exposure here but looking for ideas on the best way to make this trade as a retail investor. CPER ETF? Longer-dated copper futures?
  • TH
    Trina H.
    2 March 2020 @ 18:12
    Do you also recommend selling short term treasuries like SHY?
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    2 March 2020 @ 15:06
    Closed my long term bond position - locked in a nice profit so again thanks to Raoul and the RV team. Btw, I re-listened to the Acquirers Fund video (@Greenbackd on fintwit) - this is a fascinating video and I am wondering whether ZIG is in Raoul's next steps. Tobias makes a very compelling case for value once we reach the end of this cycle.
  • ZW
    ZH W.
    1 March 2020 @ 06:44
    Raoul, instead of selling out the ED position, what about locking it (at least partially) into a ED steepener spread? I.e. instead of selling EDZ1, we can sell something like EDZ3 or so, effectively creating a steepener. Because to use your own words in another tweet you sent, "curve will steepen like crazy". I feel that steepener can play out in either scenarios, regardless if we experience the "sell the fact" correction in bonds. Later when the correction is over and you feel like adding again, we can just backpack the EDZ3 shorted , effectively taking profits on the steepener and left with outright long EDZ1 again.
    • ZW
      ZH W.
      1 March 2020 @ 06:45
      *buy back the EDZ3 shorted. Sorry for the typo.
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      1 March 2020 @ 06:59
      That's what i've been doing on friday. took profits on EDZ0, EDU1, EDZ1. added 2k 01 into EDH1vsEDU2 steepeners. I do like to hear Raoul's thought on this - to see the man say " I want to take profits on all my fixed income" that makes me bit nervous
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 18:01
      Nice idea. I took profits because they've gone up a lot and there is always time to get back in. The steeper might flatten too over a correction period. I just like a tidy portfolio as whenever I've half hedged (hedge delta's traded the curve as a hedge etc), Ive tended to lose more money than I thought as vols fall, curve wobbles, etc
    • ZW
      ZH W.
      2 March 2020 @ 00:15
      I have given more thoughts about this ED steeper again, and had changed my mind a bit, after hearing what Raoul has said. I think the steepening effect will be much more pronounced in eg. 2y10y, but less so in front-end of the curve (EDs); reason is that market may price in Fed keeping low interest rate for a considerable period of time, hence caps the upside of any ED spreads. On the other hand, if market believes "everything is fixed", the first to sell off will be long end bonds (10y, 30y), they have much larger room to fall and it will drive 2y10y spread up substantially.
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      2 March 2020 @ 14:23
      Thank you both for the input, very helpful thoughts!
  • IB
    Ivan B.
    2 March 2020 @ 13:28
    Raoul, thank you for the update. It's great to know the way you think and I felt more comfortable making decisions based on your recommendations. I haven't followed them 100% but worked out what's right for me. Even if we have more upside and I missed out on some gains, I don't care. I know that locking in some profits were justified. ED and Bonds are the best trade of my life, I learnt a lot and I look forward to learning even more. Thank you for all you do for us retail investors.
  • DH
    David H.
    2 March 2020 @ 07:37
    I understand your caution about not following your trades tic by tic but I hope you will advise when you see a good re-entry point for TLT
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    2 March 2020 @ 05:09
    Closed my ED positions today at a very handsome profit - just wanted to say THANKS to the RV team. I feel so much more empowered as an investor since joining RV.
  • RH
    Robert H.
    2 March 2020 @ 02:49
    Re: Reading and Studying Flash Update I'm using a computer that allows the text or typed words to be spoken and be copied and pasted into notes and reminders And it can also be printed. This last change to the site will not work for these functions. I'm thinking it is a minor adjustment. BTW It Worked in the Past.
  • AA
    Andrew A.
    1 March 2020 @ 14:24
    Raoul, I agree with the general sentiment of other members here - surely closing all our Eurodollar Futures/Options trades risks us missing out on the next big move in interest rates/expectations? Why are you not recommending closing say, 50% of our Eurodollar positions or, as others have suggested trading EDZ 3? I am nervous that the bounce you are anticipating doesn't materialise and as a result we all miss the next big move. CME re-opens at 5PM Central (11pm GMT) today so a prompt response on this would be greatly appreciated. [If other members agree with me on this perhaps you could like my comment to help bring it to Raoul's attantion]
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 17:57
      In general, I have found that the fear of missing out on extra money has cost me more money than taking profits and waiting for a pullback. One will come. don't forget I am also long dollars and short copper. The latter would continue to work. Also, feel free to keep your trades in, hedge some etc, its your P&L and your risk so if you are comfortable then that's fine.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      1 March 2020 @ 19:07
      This is called 'greed' and contrary to what Gekko said it is not good :-) - at least not in trading. I am starting to learn this myself. This is not meant to sound pedantic so hope you do not take it that way. Trading is as much about controlling emotions as anything else. Not easy. When someone like Raoul says 'take profit' it makes sense to listen up in my view and be the contrarian to your emotions. There is always another trade. Yeah - I am also talking to myself !! :-)
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      1 March 2020 @ 19:46
      Thanks for replying Raoul (and JW2 W who is clearly made of sterner stuff than me ;-)
    • JW
      Joel W.
      2 March 2020 @ 00:15
      Thanks to Andrew for the question, and to Raoul and JW2 for the responses. I took a little profit Friday, and have been agonizing over how much to take this evening. I still regret not taking some profit last year when the trade went up 40% in a handful of days. So this time I’m going with Raoul’s advice to cash in and wait. Well, mostly. I’ll probably keep a tiny piece on....
  • J
    Jim .
    1 March 2020 @ 23:58
    Hi Raoul, the consensus remains that Trump wins re-election., but you said his re-election is doomed. Just curious what Trump should have done with the Coronavirus? Thanks
  • CS
    C S.
    1 March 2020 @ 23:56
    This ED trade has turned out to be more a stock hedge for me, just so happened. Im already out of bonds as my 'retirement' fund was recently been liquidated when I left HK 2 weeks ago (coronavirus refugee). So I have nothing else balancing the metal-stocks. If there is a retracement, I will consider buying bonds/placing some additional EDs, if that looks a good course to take. If things continue to go pearshaped, hopefully the damage will be limited, and I have plenty of funds to buy at lower levels, if the world hasnt gone to hell in a handbasket, depsite my best efforts. Just another perspective on the sell-now pov.
  • AB
    Avik B.
    1 March 2020 @ 23:36
    Raoul Pal, you little beauty! What a trade!!
  • KG
    Kos G.
    1 March 2020 @ 16:05
    Another technical issue (as of the 1st of March) : I can access the report through RV app on my phone. But when logged in RV through the browser, the latest report I can see is from Julian. Anyone confirm?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 17:55
      Both phones apps - Android and Apple are just about the best replaced with snhiy new ones, just like the website. Bear with us!
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      1 March 2020 @ 22:53
      Got the same issue, and I ONLY access RV via the Browser. Want my phone app-light...
  • PT
    Pradeep T.
    1 March 2020 @ 20:32
    Raoul, thanks so much for giving us the context around what is going on, why it makes sense to purchase bonds and how to manage the trades given what is going on around. I have already cut 50% of my treasury positions on Friday and will perhaps cut them down to 0-5%. Hope we don't have cuts before market opens :-)
  • RM
    R M.
    1 March 2020 @ 20:08
    Raoul and Julian: Thanks for the thoughtful updates! Much appreciated. All: Watch the Michael Oliver interview. His breakage numbers on the SPX have been precise. Milton: I would really really appreciate a MI button at the top of the page for Pro members, currently have to search around for these pieces. Thanks.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    1 March 2020 @ 19:21
    I also took profit on Friday closing all my ED positions for 20 and 21. Last year I suffered a lot seeing these positions explode around august/september and then retraced quite a bit. I was painfully waiting this correction to take profits as I already learned my lesson. There is always a market and the name of the game is to "stay in the game". The question bouncing in my head now is how much capital allocation of my total portfolio I'm willing to trade for this once and generational opportunity. The pullback is coming that is for sure. History and patterns repeat and Raoul/Julian are always super generous in helping the retail trader to think and manage their own framework. Good luck out there!
  • SR
    Steve R.
    1 March 2020 @ 00:52
    Ok, but...what if the FED announces a cut before the markets open on Monday? Would you be able to get out? Surely any drop would be on the open and brutal? I'm assuming you don't think this is likely as otherwise Friday would have been the time to exit?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 18:04
      I don't remember a weekend cut before but might be wrong.
  • BH
    Barry H.
    1 March 2020 @ 00:53
    G'day Raoul, Could you please expand on your comment "This has cost Trump the election, already." Often in times of national security (war, terrorist attacks, etc), the incumbent is seen as statesmanlike and increases their popularity, i.e., the electorate sees it as no time to change gov'ts when a large threat that needs to be managed. Why will it be different this time?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 18:04
      Because he flat out told people it wasn't a problem, he got rid of most of the CDC and he did act fast enough. If the pandemic strikes, people will not forgive him.
  • SN
    SAT N.
    1 March 2020 @ 02:44
    Great call. Makes sense to take profits now (I hope Monday is not too late). Some advice on precious metals would be very helpful.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 18:03
      I am not long gold for MI and have it versus a basket of currencies in a long term trade for GMI. I am nervous of it as everyone has the trade but over the medium term, I still like it.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    1 March 2020 @ 03:42
    Raoul you forgot to recommend filling one’s pantry with non perishables.
    • WM
      Will M.
      1 March 2020 @ 14:16
      already did that of course...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 18:02
      Done.
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    1 March 2020 @ 06:53
    That's quit a sobering recommendation and one to take very seriously. Getting ahead of the game like this takes some guts as well, so hats off to you. I also appreciate the follow-on guidance. Whilst I have flexibility to trade the majority of my assets, I do have some funds that I can only switch to other funds, for example because they are in a 401K. Listening to Weldon et al in the recent video, it it looks like the Bond & Gold recommendation should play out over the medium and longer term which means we can sit through some pain and reap the benefits down the road. Would be interested in your views on this.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 18:00
      Im nervous of how much pain we need to take in gold. I'd still prefer $TLT for now, but after any correction.
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    1 March 2020 @ 09:07
    Well done Raoul on the trade. I have been quite sceptic for some time now with regards to this expensive service and I will probably still remain. You can't leverage your trades. You ran large losses for a very long time on anything other than bonds. For the large majority of subscribers, this is not replicable. But well done on this trade at the very least and hopefully you can clarify your sizing in the future.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2020 @ 17:59
      Hi, firstly, you should not be following my trades tick by tick. It is for you to do as you see fit for your risk tolerance and capital, after doing your own homework. This isn't a trade advisory service but a macro research service. I recently went through how i size trades, about a month ago, so have a look back at some previous MI's to help.
  • KK
    Konstantinos K.
    1 March 2020 @ 16:12
    I closed my Eurodollar futures position on Friday, to protect that fat profits. I agree we due for a pullback that we can use to re-add as suggested by Raoul. In the meantime I'm prepared to take some pain on the gold and silver positions or even add. When the inevitable bankruptcies come later this year Gold will be exploding higher.
  • ml
    mark l.
    1 March 2020 @ 07:36
    That’s the 3rd update over several days that I can’t open on my iPad. Apparently others are experiencing a similar problem. Can someone please update us on when this issue will be resolved?
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      1 March 2020 @ 14:08
      Have you tried using the RV App? It works on there fine for me.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      1 March 2020 @ 15:28
      Try to reinstall the app, it worked for me
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    1 March 2020 @ 11:09
    Cannot open in my Ipad!
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      1 March 2020 @ 14:09
      Have you tried using the RV App? It works on there fine for me.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      1 March 2020 @ 15:27
      They recommend to delete and reinstall the app...
  • WW
    William W.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:05
    Can’t open
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      1 March 2020 @ 14:14
      Use the RV App
  • CS
    C S.
    1 March 2020 @ 06:12
    I cannot read, download or access the article because of a combination of things, including primative internet speeds where I am currently. Could someone kindly paste the actionable/conclusion parts of the post in the comments, I would be most grateful. Cheers.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      1 March 2020 @ 14:12
      Sell TLT – 9.53% Sell EDZ1 Futures – 63 ticks Sell EDZ0 99 Calls – 190% Profit (19 Ticks) Sell GDX – +0.19%
  • RT
    Richard T.
    1 March 2020 @ 12:44
    Timely, concise and clear - excellent update
    • ML
      Michael L.
      1 March 2020 @ 13:19
      Agreed. Many thanks Raoul, and well done on the ED trade(s)! Cheers
  • KC
    KEVIN C.
    1 March 2020 @ 00:42
    Working fine on laptop/desktop… Only a problem with my safari mobile browser on iPhone and iPad.
    • ML
      Michael L.
      1 March 2020 @ 13:06
      Had the same issue, should be able to download and read from the app itself rather than a browser (Chrome/Safari). Cheers
  • MZ
    Matthew Z.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:04
    The new setup is brutal. Can’t find any macro insiders stuff on the app
    • AS
      Amit S.
      1 March 2020 @ 01:59
      reinstall the app, did the same and it worked for me. Although any saved data/videos will be wiped out.
    • WL
      Wolfgang L.
      1 March 2020 @ 12:31
      On the top left corner in the app there are 2 icons - tap the 2nd one (the ‚globe‘) and you‘ll find the MI content
  • SS
    Sebastian S.
    1 March 2020 @ 01:43
    Besides the chart that is “o so similar” , could you elaborate on how you think a 40 tick move on EDZ1 would happen. I am just curious, as the set up here looks far worse than in 2001, at least in regards to global growth in US and abroad, would the market actually think that this will be reflationary? We been deflating for a decade... just wondering
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      1 March 2020 @ 05:13
      ED has moved a long way recently - the ‘21 contract is suggesting rates @ 0.8% - we’re at 1.75% now with a cut any deeper than 50bps likely to stoke inflation or recovery expectations in the short term, so these would sell off. It’ll be a tradable pullback for sure
  • SN
    SAT N.
    1 March 2020 @ 02:51
    I am not sure if it would take weeks and public pressure for US to test more widely. According to this WSJ article, from today (29th Feb) FDA will allow academic hospitals to start testing, and that means US capability to test increased to several thousands, overnight! Would you revise your framework if we are to see exponential increase starting this week? https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-to-allow-labs-to-begin-use-of-high-complexity-tests-for-coronavirus-11582992472?mod=e2tw
    • MS
      Mark S.
      1 March 2020 @ 03:22
      Increased testing is bad for the market because it will reveal how widespread the virus is. Then the real panic begins
  • SS
    Sebastian S.
    1 March 2020 @ 01:44
    Great call by the way and big fan of your content. Cheers
  • SR
    Steve R.
    1 March 2020 @ 00:33
    Just download it and it opens fine.
  • ON
    Orla N.
    1 March 2020 @ 00:19
    Is it possible to post the link like you did with Julian’s report as I cannot access this flash.
  • S(
    Samuel (.
    1 March 2020 @ 00:03
    Can’t open.
  • PO
    Paul O.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:56
    It works in the app.
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    29 February 2020 @ 23:41
    Yes Ive got small issuing opening. I know the team are harding hard on it. One of the small bugs with the massive product/tech release..
  • CC
    Chris C.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:29
    Thanks Raul.
  • ke
    karen e.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:26
    cant open doc.
  • JD
    Jeremy D.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:19
    Thanks! Still not sure what to do with my Gold. Saw all your (and everyone's tweets on this already).. Still in profit, but HODL if I don't need the cash?
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:07
    FYI the doc is opening properly on my end.
  • CS
    Chuck S.
    29 February 2020 @ 23:00
    Still does not open properly.