Comments
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CSStill does not open properly.
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MZThe new setup is brutal. Can’t find any macro insiders stuff on the app
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WWCan’t open
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DLFYI the doc is opening properly on my end.
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JDThanks! Still not sure what to do with my Gold. Saw all your (and everyone's tweets on this already).. Still in profit, but HODL if I don't need the cash?
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kecant open doc.
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CCThanks Raul.
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RPYes Ive got small issuing opening. I know the team are harding hard on it. One of the small bugs with the massive product/tech release..
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POIt works in the app.
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S(Can’t open.
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ONIs it possible to post the link like you did with Julian’s report as I cannot access this flash.
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SRJust download it and it opens fine.
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KCWorking fine on laptop/desktop… Only a problem with my safari mobile browser on iPhone and iPad.
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SROk, but...what if the FED announces a cut before the markets open on Monday? Would you be able to get out? Surely any drop would be on the open and brutal? I'm assuming you don't think this is likely as otherwise Friday would have been the time to exit?
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BHG'day Raoul, Could you please expand on your comment "This has cost Trump the election, already." Often in times of national security (war, terrorist attacks, etc), the incumbent is seen as statesmanlike and increases their popularity, i.e., the electorate sees it as no time to change gov'ts when a large threat that needs to be managed. Why will it be different this time?
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SSBesides the chart that is “o so similar” , could you elaborate on how you think a 40 tick move on EDZ1 would happen. I am just curious, as the set up here looks far worse than in 2001, at least in regards to global growth in US and abroad, would the market actually think that this will be reflationary? We been deflating for a decade... just wondering
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SSGreat call by the way and big fan of your content. Cheers
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SNGreat call. Makes sense to take profits now (I hope Monday is not too late). Some advice on precious metals would be very helpful.
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SNI am not sure if it would take weeks and public pressure for US to test more widely. According to this WSJ article, from today (29th Feb) FDA will allow academic hospitals to start testing, and that means US capability to test increased to several thousands, overnight! Would you revise your framework if we are to see exponential increase starting this week? https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-to-allow-labs-to-begin-use-of-high-complexity-tests-for-coronavirus-11582992472?mod=e2tw
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MSRaoul you forgot to recommend filling one’s pantry with non perishables.
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CSI cannot read, download or access the article because of a combination of things, including primative internet speeds where I am currently. Could someone kindly paste the actionable/conclusion parts of the post in the comments, I would be most grateful. Cheers.
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ZWRaoul, instead of selling out the ED position, what about locking it (at least partially) into a ED steepener spread? I.e. instead of selling EDZ1, we can sell something like EDZ3 or so, effectively creating a steepener. Because to use your own words in another tweet you sent, "curve will steepen like crazy". I feel that steepener can play out in either scenarios, regardless if we experience the "sell the fact" correction in bonds. Later when the correction is over and you feel like adding again, we can just backpack the EDZ3 shorted , effectively taking profits on the steepener and left with outright long EDZ1 again.
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JJThat's quit a sobering recommendation and one to take very seriously. Getting ahead of the game like this takes some guts as well, so hats off to you. I also appreciate the follow-on guidance. Whilst I have flexibility to trade the majority of my assets, I do have some funds that I can only switch to other funds, for example because they are in a 401K. Listening to Weldon et al in the recent video, it it looks like the Bond & Gold recommendation should play out over the medium and longer term which means we can sit through some pain and reap the benefits down the road. Would be interested in your views on this.
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mlThat’s the 3rd update over several days that I can’t open on my iPad. Apparently others are experiencing a similar problem. Can someone please update us on when this issue will be resolved?
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MCWell done Raoul on the trade. I have been quite sceptic for some time now with regards to this expensive service and I will probably still remain. You can't leverage your trades. You ran large losses for a very long time on anything other than bonds. For the large majority of subscribers, this is not replicable. But well done on this trade at the very least and hopefully you can clarify your sizing in the future.
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APCannot open in my Ipad!
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RTTimely, concise and clear - excellent update
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AARaoul, I agree with the general sentiment of other members here - surely closing all our Eurodollar Futures/Options trades risks us missing out on the next big move in interest rates/expectations? Why are you not recommending closing say, 50% of our Eurodollar positions or, as others have suggested trading EDZ 3? I am nervous that the bounce you are anticipating doesn't materialise and as a result we all miss the next big move. CME re-opens at 5PM Central (11pm GMT) today so a prompt response on this would be greatly appreciated. [If other members agree with me on this perhaps you could like my comment to help bring it to Raoul's attantion]
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KGAnother technical issue (as of the 1st of March) : I can access the report through RV app on my phone. But when logged in RV through the browser, the latest report I can see is from Julian. Anyone confirm?
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KKI closed my Eurodollar futures position on Friday, to protect that fat profits. I agree we due for a pullback that we can use to re-add as suggested by Raoul. In the meantime I'm prepared to take some pain on the gold and silver positions or even add. When the inevitable bankruptcies come later this year Gold will be exploding higher.
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AAI also took profit on Friday closing all my ED positions for 20 and 21. Last year I suffered a lot seeing these positions explode around august/september and then retraced quite a bit. I was painfully waiting this correction to take profits as I already learned my lesson. There is always a market and the name of the game is to "stay in the game". The question bouncing in my head now is how much capital allocation of my total portfolio I'm willing to trade for this once and generational opportunity. The pullback is coming that is for sure. History and patterns repeat and Raoul/Julian are always super generous in helping the retail trader to think and manage their own framework. Good luck out there!
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RMRaoul and Julian: Thanks for the thoughtful updates! Much appreciated. All: Watch the Michael Oliver interview. His breakage numbers on the SPX have been precise. Milton: I would really really appreciate a MI button at the top of the page for Pro members, currently have to search around for these pieces. Thanks.
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PTRaoul, thanks so much for giving us the context around what is going on, why it makes sense to purchase bonds and how to manage the trades given what is going on around. I have already cut 50% of my treasury positions on Friday and will perhaps cut them down to 0-5%. Hope we don't have cuts before market opens :-)
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ABRaoul Pal, you little beauty! What a trade!!
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CSThis ED trade has turned out to be more a stock hedge for me, just so happened. Im already out of bonds as my 'retirement' fund was recently been liquidated when I left HK 2 weeks ago (coronavirus refugee). So I have nothing else balancing the metal-stocks. If there is a retracement, I will consider buying bonds/placing some additional EDs, if that looks a good course to take. If things continue to go pearshaped, hopefully the damage will be limited, and I have plenty of funds to buy at lower levels, if the world hasnt gone to hell in a handbasket, depsite my best efforts. Just another perspective on the sell-now pov.
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JHi Raoul, the consensus remains that Trump wins re-election., but you said his re-election is doomed. Just curious what Trump should have done with the Coronavirus? Thanks
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MBI too will sell TLT to be on the safe side. I’ve been burnt too much in the past waiting until I understood things better… I’m assuming flipping TLT to ultra-short treasuries will be ok. I am wondering though why it doesn’t make sense to hold TLT for longer. The expectation is that the Fed is going to cut further - perhaps by as much as 50 basis points later in the month and then more later as the crises worsens. Won’t this cause TLT to keep going up? I know this will be a dumb question for many… TLT was previously going down when there was talk of reflation. Why does it make sense to sell TLT now?
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RHRe: Reading and Studying Flash Update I'm using a computer that allows the text or typed words to be spoken and be copied and pasted into notes and reminders And it can also be printed. This last change to the site will not work for these functions. I'm thinking it is a minor adjustment. BTW It Worked in the Past.
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JJClosed my ED positions today at a very handsome profit - just wanted to say THANKS to the RV team. I feel so much more empowered as an investor since joining RV.
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DHI understand your caution about not following your trades tic by tic but I hope you will advise when you see a good re-entry point for TLT
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IBRaoul, thank you for the update. It's great to know the way you think and I felt more comfortable making decisions based on your recommendations. I haven't followed them 100% but worked out what's right for me. Even if we have more upside and I missed out on some gains, I don't care. I know that locking in some profits were justified. ED and Bonds are the best trade of my life, I learnt a lot and I look forward to learning even more. Thank you for all you do for us retail investors.
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JJClosed my long term bond position - locked in a nice profit so again thanks to Raoul and the RV team. Btw, I re-listened to the Acquirers Fund video (@Greenbackd on fintwit) - this is a fascinating video and I am wondering whether ZIG is in Raoul's next steps. Tobias makes a very compelling case for value once we reach the end of this cycle.
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THDo you also recommend selling short term treasuries like SHY?
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KBI just have to add my thanks for these trade ideas and frameworks. I wasn't totally comfortable going full in on the ED futures in mid-Jan, but added some options on TLT in early Feb when the market was back on its reflation optimism kick...incredible return so....THANKS Raoul! I'm a bit late to the game on MI, but looking at the Sell Copper rec from back in August. If things continue to go south, I would like to have some exposure here but looking for ideas on the best way to make this trade as a retail investor. CPER ETF? Longer-dated copper futures?
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JFHi Raoul, just joined RV Pro and have had a read through this update. Can you give more details on the trades you placed for AUD, KRW and Copper. Are these futures contracts, what exchange are you trading on? Thanks for the fantastic ED Dec 2020 trade -- will await your guidance on when to get back in (hopefully there will that 60 tick correction!)
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PMthe FOMO is strong with this one... was a great trade nevertheless
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mlI still can’t open this on my iPad. It’s a week now since this issue started and no response.
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HERaoul's said: ".... "The US Government failed to address the virus seriously and one of the biggest political mistakes in all of history has been set. This has cost Trump the election, already." As an ardent Trump supporter, I could NOT agree more. This hubris exceeds even George W. Bush's truly spectacular blonder of "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" (re: the Iraq War) on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln. Remember this day... It will NOT be long before the markets come to realize the same - and TOTALLY PUKE!!!
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AGRaoul per your twitter update what should we buying to reenter the trade for fed to take rates to zero? Are calls on Eurodollars the recommendation again? Thank you for everything! 🙏🏿