Flash Update – January 7, 2021

Published on: January 7th, 2021

There has been a lot of volatile price action since the middle of December in single stocks and less liquid sub-sectors of other markets, including currencies and commodities. Simply watching S&P and other big indices has been misleading. Below Julian updates his recommended action plan and tweaks some stops and targets. Time to take some profits.


  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    7 January 2021 @ 21:39
    Happy New Year Julian, Raoul and Harry! Thanks for the update. :)
  • MD
    Mike D.
    7 January 2021 @ 22:08
    Julian, thank you for the consistent stream of carefully considered, clearly communicated updates. Much appreciated!
  • JG
    Jack G.
    7 January 2021 @ 22:35
    Thank you Julian
  • JM
    Joeri M.
    7 January 2021 @ 22:39
    The TIPS breakeven curve just inverted. This has historically lead to peak breakevens. Peak breakevens together with rising nominal rates can put pressure on a lot of things. See chart of breakeven curve in my tweet: https://twitter.com/adaptiveinvest/status/1346889319173263364
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      8 January 2021 @ 01:21
      Really useful observation! Its true that has happened around highs, and its pretty intuitive why it would happen. But we also have preliminary evidence of supply bottle necks forming, which might also provide a tentative explanation. There is a lot of talk circulating of very ambitious fiscal plans.
  • CG
    Colin G.
    7 January 2021 @ 23:46
    Happy new year Julian. Many thanks for your consistently thorough analysis and clear recommendations. Corn (not somewhere I'd venture alone) has delivered a handy 150% using options. And that's not to mention life-changing guidance from you and Raoul early last year Cheers mate!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      8 January 2021 @ 01:23
      I was just chatting to JB earlier today about how well the aggs had been doing, and about the rather disconcerting Vietnamese purchase rice purchases. Trade might well have further to go. https://www.reuters.com/article/india-vietnam-rice-exports-exclusive-idUSKBN29A072
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    8 January 2021 @ 00:01
    Thanks and Happy New Year! Looking forward to next week's insider talks, I'm glad you mentioning the date ahead of time. Sometimes I struggle finding the scheduled date (ahead of time), it's nice to organize my schedule in a way that I can attend the live Insider Talks discussions as they are, by far, my favorite part of real vision.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      8 January 2021 @ 01:26
      Great point and very kind of you to say. I will pass on.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    8 January 2021 @ 00:31
    HI Julian, With the theme of "Asian Tigers" are you looking to put on any other trades outside of the Nikkei.. like EWS (Singapore), EMXC (EM xChina)? Thanks!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      8 January 2021 @ 12:42
      I asked him. "in answer to Jim S's question, I am struggling with sticker shock. BUT if we think Asia FX and EMFX is good, reflation is running and USD generally weak, then I will have to get over it. Hate bad location and difficult risk/reward decisions."
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      8 January 2021 @ 01:31
      Let me ask him and the team. Japan is an excellent play on Asia and an Asian "Roaring 20s", but also is very cheap, and was breaking out. One could equally be quite positive on other Asian markets but I'm not personally as familiar with the valuation case.
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    8 January 2021 @ 02:46
    Congrats Julien, your year has been fantastic in all aspects of the macro spectrum. I was wondering before reading if you'd put some vanity short trades, the bubble is swallowing 100s billions a month if not close to a trillion. It isn't sustainable for very long. Let's see.
  • LC
    Lilly C.
    8 January 2021 @ 04:05
    Very timely update, thank you JB! Looking forward to next week’s discussion and In Focus!
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    8 January 2021 @ 06:21
    I think the app may need to be updated to accommodate the newer Android app on Samsung. I can download on the tablet with the older Android version but not the newer one; one ui 3.0. Thanks
    • AT
      Alun T.
      8 January 2021 @ 22:59
      Got the same problem on my new Google phone. Downloads worked fine on my old one
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      8 January 2021 @ 08:30
      Thanks, I'll ping it to my team.
  • PS
    Pablo S.
    8 January 2021 @ 14:09
    Thanks Julien, your year has been very good . I was wondering if you are considering investing in Asia , where and what... I realy appreciate your work, and the concice information. Regards Pablo Seferian
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    8 January 2021 @ 19:46
    Right on cue we get a shaking of the tree for metals with real rates rising today.
  • CY
    Charlie Y.
    8 January 2021 @ 22:07
    Thanks for the update. Question: does the Stop price mean "if price goes below X - sell"?
  • PT
    Pawel T.
    8 January 2021 @ 23:38
    Sorry Mr. Julian for strange connection but you look on this picture like imperator Palpatine;) Anyway thank you for the great content!
  • LO
    Leonard O.
    9 January 2021 @ 03:34
    Would be great if we can have a bit of discourse / view on Bitcoin / Ethereum from Julian in the upcoming Insider Talks!
  • AP
    16 January 2021 @ 21:40
    Many thanks to Julian for his expert guidance on the DBA trade over these many months. It was an excellent options ride for me and I've exited as suggested.