Flash Update – July 7, 2020

Published on: July 7th, 2020

Raoul adds some granularity to his dollar view and to his macro framework in order to clarify how he approaches
investing, and thus assist subscribers to understand and make the most of his research.

Comments

  • JP Ä.
    10 July 2020 @ 17:53
    EXCLUSIVE TRADE IDEAS TO INVEST MORE PROFITABILITY UNBIASED OPINIONS FROM THE EXPERTS IN FINANCE HUNDREDS OF ELITE FINANCIAL MINDS, IN ONE PLACE OVER 500 INVESTMENT VIDEOS WITH A COMMITMENT-FREE TRIAL. $1/month. Note: "Trade ideas" ≠ tip sheet Trade ideas should only be implemented in a portfolio context by optimizing assets on risk/return basis. Have a peak for $1/month but keep note that trade ideas should be implemented in a portfolio context.
  • RR
    Raj R.
    10 July 2020 @ 14:18
    The Euro-USD chart is showing the Euro bouncing off a long term trend line, which would mean dollar will continue to weaken unless the chart breaks the trendline? Is Raoul suggesting the trendline has to break for his thesis to be confirmed?
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    10 July 2020 @ 05:12
    Thanks Raoul - great piece. Also, to your last point - it would be great to learn your take on portfolio construction (for macro) and position sizing.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    10 July 2020 @ 02:58
    What are “singe trades”. Did you mean to write “single”. Oh, page 11 last 2 lines. Not looking for typos, just want to make sure I understand the “jargon” if singe is a term. Thanks!
  • GF
    Gunter F.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:29
    good update. Thanks
  • MF
    Michael F.
    9 July 2020 @ 18:55
    Hi Raoul, I am looking for a place to get short copper, while also going longer gold. Hard to be early and fight momentum on the copper short, while also tough to pull the trigger adding to gold long. Do you see a better risk/reward to just put on both from here together or continue waiting? Thanks
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    9 July 2020 @ 08:55
    Hello Raoul, Thanks for the update. I just wanted to ask if you would put a stop on for the copper short or rather wait until a pullback to cover. Thanks Kavi
  • mh
    miles h.
    8 July 2020 @ 22:59
    So insightful, thank you.
  • AS
    Alan S.
    8 July 2020 @ 04:59
    Don't make it a tip sheet; then you are just one of many. Better to explain how to structure an investment and what products to utilize. Btw, screw the futures, regardless of this/that/the other, they're too difficult to access for too many. But as I have said to you before, who cares about the Canadians? Stay healthy, Alan
    • RE
      Raymond E.
      8 July 2020 @ 21:22
      Access to trading futures is available in Canada through several brokers, including Interactive Brokers. One would be well served to take time to educate oneself about futures before beginning to use them -- doing so is well worth it as they offer significant advantages.
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    8 July 2020 @ 16:26
    Raoul - the stop on the EURUSD position at around 114.50 - does that level stop out all your USD trades eg. vs GBP, AUD, JPY...etc? Thanks
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    8 July 2020 @ 13:42
    I applaud your resistance to indulge activity seekers. If you wouldn't mind sharing, I'd love to hear specifics about your sizing framework. Portfolio construction / sizing is quite rare these days.
  • WM
    Will M.
    8 July 2020 @ 13:41
    Very well written piece clearly outlining Raoul's approach. Yes those of us who are not professional traders want to believe that by purchasing RVT Pro, it will lead to one big winning trader after another. Unfortunately that is not the case, macro appears to be a journey and thinking is required.
  • CS
    C S.
    8 July 2020 @ 01:24
    Raoul, I think you should preface (at least your side) of the service up-front to potential subscribers, with what you have written above. You will of course include how Julians shorter time horizon compliments the service as a whole. Not that you've advertised it as anything but a pro-level service, caveats naturally follow. I have been a subscriber for 3 years I think now. Its a great service, a privilege to have access to. Having said that, I suppose my main frustration, and this could very well be just my own (differing horizons etc, all mentioned above) is how the framework and pay offs can straddle multiple subscription periods. Thats weighed against the cost of each subscription period, where pay offs can be lumpy. Its all an education. Cheers.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 July 2020 @ 10:54
      Yeah, that's just how it goes as we only suggests the trades or investments when we think it makes sense and as we often say, macro is like waiting for a bus... you wait for ever and then 11 come along all at once!
  • JW
    Jasper W.
    8 July 2020 @ 06:14
    Thanks, Raoul, for trying to clarify your general time horizon. I am still confused, however. It seems to me that you in your recent discussion with Ben Melkman (brilliant interview by the way) agreed with him that the USD will eventually break down (Because of endless stimulus and move away from reserve currency status). I believe you have stated something similar in one of your previous conversations with Julian. So, there is long-term (Dollar up) and longer term (Dollar down)? What is your current idea about the time frames (the discussion with Melkman seems to indicate we are talking about 1-2 years for the “longer” long term)? Do you really still believe the EURUSD may reach extreme values such as 0,8 given the strong and eventually (according to yourself) victorious forces pushing the Dollar down? Another issue: I sympathize with the view that you don’t want to provide a tips service. I would hate to have somebody yelling at me every afternoon to buy or sell (cf. Hedgeye). On the other hand, the current “advertisement” for your pro service contribution might run as follows. “In my pro service you will mostly find information about trades I have initiated a long time ago. Timing is not my thing, so you will not get any idea about when the investment will return a profit. I may talk about the importance of portfolio construction, but I will not provide you with info on how my trades are sized. In addition, I will already have told everyone and their mother about my views on twitter and RV essential”.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 July 2020 @ 10:52
      Im sorry you feel that way but this is not a trading service it is a macro research service.
  • CP
    CRAIG P.
    8 July 2020 @ 05:40
    When you write “I will set up an AMA . . .”, do you mean an Ask Me Anything or Asset Management Agreement? Not familiar with that jargon.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 July 2020 @ 10:51
      Ask me Anything
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    8 July 2020 @ 09:37
    Another excellent piece. Thanks for all your deep work Raoul. Any advice on position sizing and portfolio construction would be hugely appreciated.
  • DF
    David F.
    8 July 2020 @ 07:55
    Great note Raoul - time and idea time horizons to match. Thanks
  • GD
    Gerrit D.
    8 July 2020 @ 06:37
    Great piece. Hope people will remember the difference between a "tip service" and a "macro framework" and the portfolio approach for a long time. It is annoying to see harsh comments from some RV subscribers if a single trade suggested by GMI is not working out well for them quickly.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    8 July 2020 @ 03:07
    Raoul, I'd really love to get a some examples of how to size a trade. I can't think of one RV video that covers this in depth. So first discuss what makes up a portfolio and how one should look at each category. Equities? Land? Diamonds? Precious Metals? Bonds? etc When I decide to invest, how much cash should i a lot to any of these? How should I think about the size of my initial position? All in? 25% of what I was going to commit to a particular asset and add on pullbacks 10% each time after that? 20%? I tend to trade options so I have to think with that factor on top of everything else. I think you could do a mini series on sizing positions.
  • RG
    Rob G.
    8 July 2020 @ 02:25
    Great piece - may I suggest that greater clarification is provided around 1) position sizing and 2) how you manage the risks on the individual legs of the overall portfolio. Re 1) what % of your account equity do you risk on each trade if your initial stop was hit, and do you scale into these positions or just pile it all on when the trade is published? What portfolio "heat" do yo max out at before you start trimming risk exposure? Re 2) You clearly provide stops for all your trade recommendations...great. But then you mention that it's the portfolio's performance as a whole (paraphrasing here) that you're concerned about, not just the individual trades and their respective individual performances. So what I would like to know is, is there ever a time when you ignore the stop on a specific trade, because you deem its inclusion in the portfolio as beneficial to the portfolio as a whole? If so, does this necessitate a stop on the entire portfolio's P&L, in the case where your thesis turns out to be wrong?
  • JC
    John C.
    8 July 2020 @ 00:24
    Great communication! Thanks Raoul.
  • JR
    Jason R.
    7 July 2020 @ 21:48
    Raoul, I appreciate the depth, candor and transparency of your view. It is obviously formed with a great deal of background and experience. What I'm really loving about Real Vision is the willingness to test and challenge your (and other's) assumptions and opinions by having on other really smart people that bring additional perspective. All this does is create greater and greater context and insight to answer the simple question, "What should I do?" That's up to each of us and is our respective individual responsibility. Keep it up! Thanks for helping us to be better informed so we can take our own decisions about our investment choices.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 July 2020 @ 22:20
      Thanks. I often forget that everyone is at different speeds as I am so used to dealing with hedge funds etc with decades of experience.
    • JR
      Jason R.
      7 July 2020 @ 23:59
      Yes...I face the same in my business as well. However, my advice is to stick with what works. It won't be for everyone, which is fine. Those that merely want a trading portfolio that they implement or other simple, short-term perspective may be better suited for another resource (which there are a plethora of). Something deep was/is needed. Kudos.
  • JW
    Jim W.
    7 July 2020 @ 23:47
    Raoul, this is a great piece. I suppose I'm in the "other" camp, in that I don't want and would find it hard to use a daily or even weekly trading service. Your macro pieces have let me put on trades that I clearly understand the risk rewards (usually with options) at price points that I understand. My only real suggestions for improvement would tie into adding/entering into positions after the initial recommendation--I don't have a feel if, two weeks later, I should still be entering if it has moved somewhat in the predicted direction.
    • JW
      Jim W.
      7 July 2020 @ 23:47
      and sizing the trades vs rest of book. (I would have edited this in, but apparently I can't do that).
  • DB
    Dan B.
    7 July 2020 @ 23:36
    Thanks Raoul - plenty of great advice throughout this one
  • B
    Benjamin .
    7 July 2020 @ 23:07
    “the best traders and investors have trade time horizons that match their idea time horizon” Incalculable value in a single sentence. Thanks Raoul!
  • BR
    Brian R.
    7 July 2020 @ 22:39
    Raoul, all good here. I will admit that I am a relative novice but I am pleased that I make money. I use your service and a few others, just like you said with reference to you hiring people in the past with different methods - to get different points of view and time horizons. Your service and Real Vision altogether is very much appreciated. Please keep up the exceptional work.
  • MD
    Michael D.
    7 July 2020 @ 22:29
    @Raoul, thanks for the clear and carefully thought update. I get the sense from reading comment streams that a fair number of Pro members are also familiar with Hedgeye, and fail to grasp the dramatic difference in approach and time scale between the two. I also want to thank you again for your work. The March 6 trades, particularly with your clear guidance to lean in with force, have made a tremendous and much needed difference in my P.A. I, for one, am very pleased to have today's additional guidance not only on planning horizons, but also how you recommend reading the guidance v.a.v. sizing. Thank you!
  • JK
    John K.
    7 July 2020 @ 21:57
    Raoul, if we, for whatever reason, did not enter the Euro trade when you did, what would you recommend for someone who would prefer to take a position in that trade now, specifically, if one were to use options to position in that trade? As always, thank you, sir. Regards, John
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 July 2020 @ 22:20
      The problem of options is one of time horizon... you get to only get exposure over three months or whatever so its another risk the trade could go wrong. I'd like to see the trend develop first by adding short Euro and a stop above 1.145 with how much you are prepared to lose if it hits it. That will define the leverage you can take. Once the trade is working, you can layer in with options when you think there is a good inflection point that will accelerate the trend. Options are great for trade acceleration points.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    7 July 2020 @ 21:51
    Raoul, What is an AMA?
    • TB
      Thibault B.
      7 July 2020 @ 21:53
      Ask Me Anything
  • SC
    Salvatore C.
    7 July 2020 @ 21:45
    Excellent snapshot! Thanks for this.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.