Flash Update – March 18, 2021

Published on: March 18th, 2021

There is a new Sheriff in town… and he is a paid up, die-hard social warrior. Frogs! Get ready to be boiled in the financial repression pot. What to think? What to do?


  • SG
    Soros G.
    19 March 2021 @ 03:18
    Question about the gold position (understanding it's half size and stops are tight around the channel): Isn't there a danger that inflation expectations have somewhat front run actual inflation? 5y5y divergence from breakevens, reflation commodities (copper, silver, platinum.. Etc), KOSPI/semi weakness and oil futures mild contango are showing a bit of toppiness Consensus says nominals are still expected to rise into the 2% (3%?) range in US10y - aren't this expectation out there mostly based on growth base effects that will kick in much stronger in Q2? These combined could lead to increased real yields, continuing the downtrend in gold until H2 where the base effects ease and we enter more of a stagflation scenario with lower real yields. Is this thought train a wreck?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 March 2021 @ 15:17
      Definitely a risk. I think JB thought there was a better than even chance at current prices that Gold would perform because the pace of bond sell off would slow. That has yet to be proven.
  • LH
    Luis H.
    19 March 2021 @ 01:17
    Can you please check the left scale os the two graphs on page 7? The scale is not inverted.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 March 2021 @ 15:15
      Will take a look. Apologies.
  • SN
    Sean N.
    19 March 2021 @ 00:14
    Nicely put Julian. Got to be in some of these trades, but it won't take much more in treasury rates rise to start a rout. (The risk is that a stock market rout here could be very hard to contain!) I feel like the FED must know this and is holding it's breath waiting to make more dovish noises... Perhaps SLR extension announcement??
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 March 2021 @ 15:14
      Im increasingly of the view (for what little my opinion is worth) that the Fed wants to stealth tighten. Hence the SLR and hence the greenlight to higher bond yields. Fed should probably be more careful about what it wishes for.
  • MW
    Marco W.
    19 March 2021 @ 00:01
    Just like to point out that Nikkei is a price-weighted index dominated by Japan's FANG-style stocks (Fast Retailing @11.5%, Softbank @7.5% ...), with Financials at 1.98% and Energy at 0.2% weights. When growth or NDX underperform, Nikkei will underperform. To play value, it is better to go for Topix or DXJ or EWJ. Ref: https://siblisresearch.com/data/nikkei-225-sector-weights/, https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/equity/dxj, https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
    • JL
      J L.
      19 March 2021 @ 05:27
      Well spotted, I had not realized how much EWJ has underperformed the Yen Nikkei for years. Some commentary on USDJPY would also be appreciated as it has gone from 102 to 109 since last trading the Nikkei but no recommendation is made to own Japan in Yen (compared to the UK in GBP)
    • sw
      stefan w.
      19 March 2021 @ 06:50
      I use FLJP... probably not most cost efficient... weightings are Industrial 22%, consumer 19%, IT 13%, Health 10%
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    18 March 2021 @ 19:51
    I took on Julian’s sell NDX trade in the form of SQQQ (3x leveraged short NDX) and FNGD (3x leveraged FAANG stocks). I don’t have any real trading experience so please defer to Julian on any differences, but just wanted to share my trade. So, that Julian and Raoul both wanted some form of short equities at the same time made me more confident in the principle, but the FAANGs-as-bonds theory, rising real rates, and rotation out of big tech into banks and consequent rotation out of NDX into Dow made me far more confident in Julian’s short NDX than Raoul’s puts on S&P. Despite Julian leaving the trade, I’m staying in for a few reasons. First, his stop was close above 13100, but he also emphasized watching the Fed meeting. It closes above the stop the day before the Fed meeting, but barely, so I waited. The Fed conference seemed to cause very bullish price action across the board and falling yields. However, the US10Y had hit an hourly TD 9 earlier in the day and could easily be seen as taking a 4-candle correction that would bounce. Further, news could easily cause a head fake. So yesterday I exited half the trade and decided to watch what happened today. US10Y spiked overnight. Its on a TD5 daily and the weekly chart is restarting a bullish up sequence on a 2 trading higher than a 1. Seems like this thing is on a tear and doesn’t care what Powell said. NDX is trading below Julian’s target for the second entry of 12880 right now. So had his trade not stopped out we would be at the point to freshly enter the second half of it! NDX was poised to hit a TD9 sell signal on the daily chart while under the 20D moving average, which recently crossed the 50D and has no indication of turning back. The last time it traded under the 20D after the 20D crossed the 50D was March 2020. This really makes me wonder about the passive algorithms. Are we getting an automatic repeat now that we have hit March 17 again? The TD count broke and went to a red 1 today. NDX might generate a fresh bearish downcount tomorrow. The last time it dropped it was saved by the 20W moving average. As I’m writing it is starting to cross it. Seems to me this trade has life left so I’m sticking to it unless US10Y does a surprising reversal or NDX looks like it could hold the 20D MA.
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      18 March 2021 @ 19:58
      Here's the report where Vincent Deluard argued that passive whales are creating crashes that consistently end on the 23rd day of the last month of the quarter, unless that falls on a weekend in which case the 24th: https://www.realvision.com/issues/passive-whales-and-the-math-of-secular-slowdown?source_collection=1c85a7e546194180b5c665d81abd2215 So it would be nuts if we get an NDX crash that bottoms out on March 23 that would be nuts and align quite well!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2021 @ 23:07
      Really useful thoughts and much appreciated. I know JB remains cautious about US equity risk. But a stop is a stop. Respect them and go again.
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      19 March 2021 @ 04:46
      I agree a stop is a stop. I just chose to modify Julian’s stop to fit my own view. A bit dangerous given Julian’s an expert and I’m an idiot, but I think I also have a higher risk profile as I’m 97% BTC.
  • BT
    Billy T.
    18 March 2021 @ 20:11
    Are there any recommended nikkei etf, ftse etf and mib etf's?
    • ly
      lena y.
      19 March 2021 @ 00:24
  • ly
    lena y.
    19 March 2021 @ 00:22
    Logically lay out the reasons for each trade! Thank you Julian!
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    18 March 2021 @ 23:57
    I'm assuming Julian saw this (https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-to-widen-interest-rate-target-range-to-support-bank-profits), or perhaps it came out after this update was written. I'm curious if it changes his opinion on buying the Nikkei? Thanks.
  • SC
    Sanjeev C.
    18 March 2021 @ 19:58
    Hi JB - Does China not benefit from the reflation trade? like Japan, FTSE or Italy? & what about a broad commodities exposure like GUNR Thanks
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2021 @ 23:35
      Yes of course. Its just a little harder to say its cheap.
  • af
    andrew f.
    18 March 2021 @ 23:14
    The NDX vanity trade is slippery. Julian tweeted an excellent chart comparing Nasdaq and Treasury futures; https://twitter.com/JulianMI2/status/1372529863895130125 Still some downside to come?
  • RL
    Robert L.
    18 March 2021 @ 19:53
    Thanks for the timely perspective, this market is bonkers.
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    18 March 2021 @ 19:33
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      18 March 2021 @ 19:34
      I had trouble commenting in the app before. Sorry! You can delete this comment thread. I can’t seem to do it in the app.
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      18 March 2021 @ 19:52
      Actually I was unable to post my large comment on the app. I had to come to my laptop to do it. I've had this for the past year of being a member. Can someone look into trouble commenting from the app in IOS? It seems to only allow me to write very short comments.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

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Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

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Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

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Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

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Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

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Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.