Flash Update – November 9, 2020

Published on: November 9th, 2020

Raoul updates his views on COVID-19 and stimulus in light of the election results and vaccine news. He also updates bitcoin, FX and equity trades.

Comments

  • Dd
    David d.
    10 November 2020 @ 15:36
    The TLT trade was up more than 45% and is now down approximately 40% with last price $1.52/share. Does Finessing this trade mean adding to TLT at $1.52? I want to, but I also want to make sure this is prudent... ? And that you still have conviction in this trade? Thank you Raoul.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 November 2020 @ 13:24
      If you watch the MI Monthly video RP answers this question. Yes he does have conviction, although the right way to trade it is probably via options.
    • PW
      Patrick W.
      16 November 2020 @ 19:05
      Harry, David is quoting the option price.
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    11 November 2020 @ 04:42
    I am somewhat really confused with these executions, I feel like more and more becoming the black sheep to this platform, an alien, everybody is so happy and me I am like the only guy left in tears. The 9th was Monday, unless you have a special access over the weekend to the market that I don't, I didn't close at these prices. (at all) 1) Buy to close GE -28%, entry price 6.32 so exit price 6.32 * 1.28 = 8.09 2) Buy to close AT&T 7.11%, entry price 29.54 so exit price 29.54 / 1.07 = 27.60 3) Buy to close BKX -1%, entry price 77.73, so exit price 77.73 * 1.01 = 78.51 1) low of the day is 8.65 with open at 9.35 2) low of the day is 28.15 with open at 28.25 3) low of the day is 81.21 with open at 81.21 BKX actually is not tradable, you have to trade KBWB so that one for sure was impossible to close out before market open. In fact I received this email at 2.46 pm New York time, we all know what happened on Monday so the prices I could trade was not even close to these low of the day by any measure. 1) 8.79, real performance in my account -39% 2) 28.67, real performance in my account +3% 3) 90.22, real performance in my account -16% What did I do wrong so that you make money and I loose? I was a big big fan of RV but please don't tell me RV has turned the same as HedgeEye with bogus trades recommendation and constant self gratification of the (fake) good job done. Sorry Raoul, these particular trades were not good at all. There are no explanation on what happened. You can take that as a feedback, we don't pay you to be a hero trader and be constantly right but at the very least you can give us a real picture of what everybody will face following your trades. It is certainly not a pleasant moment for you indeed, neither for many who lost part of their life savings but you own us an explanation on what happened in your next insider trading indeed. Having said that and be certain that I am feeling very bad to have had to say all that. Well done in closing in. Market is always right, only honest and humble traders survive this business.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 November 2020 @ 13:38
      Matthieu, I'm really sorry. Part of the problem is in the editorial process. Raoul can pen a note, suggesting to close. Then it will go to an editor, and then it will get published on the site. That whole process can easily involve a 24 hour delay. In an ideal world we aim to give recommendations which are medium term in their time horizon, which will reduce the importance of execution risk. But of course, when you have a Monday like last Monday, it doesn't matter whether you are focusing on the medium term, cos the daily move is very big. Of course, thats only part of the problem. Sometimes ideas can go wrong. No one gets 100% of their trades right. Risk management is absolutely critical in making sure that when things go wrong, they do not go too wrong. I know exactly what you have gone through. My Carvana and Tesla shorts did not go as well as I would have hoped. I totally agree with you about the importance of honesty and humility.
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      13 November 2020 @ 02:16
      Hi Harry thanks for the reply. Are you saying these were executed Friday?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      13 November 2020 @ 16:37
      My pleasure Matthieu. Maybe it would be better to say that the orders were placed on Friday. We write with the audience in mind but prices can move between writing and publication.
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      15 November 2020 @ 21:37
      "HedgeEye with bogus trades recommendation and constant self gratification of the (fake) good job done. " This is so true and in my opinion a business model that front runs its own clients base. Cant imagine this would be allowed in European jurisdiction. Impossible to make the trades they window dress. Terrible experience and financial performance using their platform. Quad model is interesting but this twitter self gratification and recommendations on only non liquid stock with huge spreads is just horrifying. RV should really stop cross promoting that platform, looks bad on them too. But Matthieu, MI is very different although I highlighted the window dressing in numbers before on the these comment sections and direct with RV helpdesk. RV please update with correct prices (non hedgeye methodology), we all endured the same pain so lets reflect correctly in the stats.
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      16 November 2020 @ 13:39
      Hi Jeroen M. Thank you for not letting me feel alone here. I concur with all the points that you made. Especially the Quad model of HedgeEye is great. It doesn't mean that this particular model makes money but it is such a nice and simplistic way to look at whats going on and take action from it. That's bad they pretend they make so much money, they are geeky quants who found the golden algorithm as they clearly don't and anyway it doesn't exists. As a reminder, Keith was bragging again just before the huge melt up that he was heavily shorting Europe and Dax but I guess I covered everything the same way Raoul did. Amazing this guys. Their jobs are not to trade their signals, it is to sell them. I guess they makes so much money with rolling subscribers that they made it their business plan rather than trading. With regards to RV, I was so sad to see they are going that way. I am a subscriber for one year and half and still have 6 months to go so I have a good overview of whats going. At this point I am not thinking renewing my membership. This is the first time I have seen that trick playing though in such a gross manner while at the same time Raoul became simply a buy all Bitcoin service. I really don't need somebody to tell me to buy bitcoin as this is nothing to do with macroeconomics. It has only to do with the fact that bitcoin as a fixed offer supply and the more people buys it, the more the price goes up, but don't be mistaken by the fact that when people will want to transfer that cash to their bank account that will burst has every other bubbles. I really hope Raoul comes here and read that comment so he understands that he crossed the red line here but actually I think he already knows it. Now you understand why he bring Julian alone and I can only have huge respect for the macroeconomics value that Julien brings to the service, opposite to Raoul's trade which are just some sort of amusement now in my opinion which would be discarded immediately. Once you understand that simple fact, you calm your angriness that you spend 1% if not 10% of your trading account in a service which is telling you to buy BTC, BTC and only BTC. I don't want to get rich and be right all the time. I want to trade macroeconomics events. Here is the point and why I subscribed in the first place.
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    11 November 2020 @ 09:41
    Raoul - does the vaccine news mean the markets will look past the 'shorter' term impacts of Covid and look ahead to more of a reflation narrative? Bond yields continue to rise despite no stimulus and worsening covid numbers globally. So I am basically asking, do you still think yields go negative? And are the TLT March 21 calls still the right play for you? Thank you
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 November 2020 @ 13:47
      While we wait for RP to comment, for me I am a little skeptical of the vaccine "news". There are lots of vaccines, but there is a perverse incentive to announce progress because it will provide a bump to stock prices. Requiring 75degrees below 0 will limit the distribution. I think the broader point is that we will come up with technical solutions to Covid. Either ways to treat it, block the transmission, or vaccinate. That will happen. In the meantime yields will be determined by the Fed's willingness to cap yields. They can do it. The question is whether they still have the appetite to do so. Part of that will depend on the performance of the real economy.
  • aC
    alexander C.
    11 November 2020 @ 07:08
    Hi Raoul, I live in the UAE and it is not easy to pass the protocols to buy bitcoin. Now investing in BTC through XBTC ETN on the Swedish Nasdaq. Do you think these are probably our best option for exposure? Are they safe in your opinion? Thanks
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 November 2020 @ 13:43
      Alex C. I am using a ETF to have my rather tiny bitcoin exposure. I really dont know enough to feel comfortable in making recommendations on appropriate vehicles. Does anyone else have a recommendation? I would recommend taking this question to the The Exchange, and seeing if you can find someone who can give you an informed answer.
  • HK
    Hyosoong K.
    10 November 2020 @ 08:59
    Phase 2 is Not as bad as Raoul indicates in IMHO. COVID cases are increasing because significantly more tests have been conducted between Phase 1 & 2. Decreasing death rate globally between Phase 1 and Phase 2 is a tell sign that Phase 2 is far less severe. You can tell from people's behavior in various locations around the world. In general, people are less cautious today than when Phase 1 instilled deadly fear into people's mind. I believe economic activities are gradually picking up and inflation will pick up as well.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      10 November 2020 @ 12:53
      wrong, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/map/weekly-change-percent-positive
  • BR
    Brian R.
    10 November 2020 @ 03:02
    I just joined RV pro. Thanks for the great content. One person that I have followed for last 12 years that has really nailed the macro themes as well as anyone I have seen is steve sjuggerud with Stansberry. He has been talking about the final phase of the bull market for 10 years. And that it would end up in a 2000 style melt up followed by a prolonged melt down that would last many years. He thinks we just entered the final inning. What are your thoughts on that possibility ? Also - are you concerned about the energy consumption of btc ? If you watch the whole Druckenmiller video - he tells the journalist that she overstated is enthusiasm for btc and owns a “tiny” amount. Would you say that is still a big deal despite the fact that he is only dipping his toes in it ? Thanks!! Brian
    • BR
      Brian R.
      10 November 2020 @ 03:13
      He thinks that the end will be near when we see the average person talking about how much money they are making. We are seeing the beginning of that he says but not at 2000 levels. As a moron that was right jn the middle of that in 2000- I remember those days well. And it doesn’t feel we are at that level of excess. U pushed me much farther into the deep end with btc. So thank U in advance !!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 09:45
      It is a big deal for Truck to own bitcoin. As he said in the interview, he is an old school guy. The very fact that he seems merit in it increases acceptability massively.
  • RR
    Raj R.
    10 November 2020 @ 06:53
    @Raoul, for some of us who cannot manage holding a large amount of bitcoin personally, is it a good idea to buy Microstrategy and get exposure that way? Their marketcap is $1.5B and they converted close to $500M in cash to bitcoin. So, if bitcoin goes to $100k, their mktcap goes to $6.5B so we get 4-5X our money?
    • SP
      Stephen P.
      10 November 2020 @ 08:49
      Same thoughts as me Raj - I'm long Microstrategy too! What a great interview with Michael Saylor
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 09:43
      In an imperfect world, Microstrategies and Galaxy Digital should work.
  • PM
    Philip M.
    10 November 2020 @ 07:01
    I remember the pain (and the pleasure!) of the last Eurodollar trade you published. How do you think about sizing for this trade, given there may be times, perhaps like now, to add to it? Also, thank you for rolling this update out so quickly, esp. given the weather where you are. Hope you didn't get damage...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 09:42
      As I mentioned, all trades are inferior to Bitcoin, which is my largest position by a gigantic amount (70% of liquid NAV) but the bond/ED trade should be scaled in and sized much smaller (maybe 2% to 5% of NAV over time, only getting to 5% once things are start to confirm)
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    10 November 2020 @ 09:23
    Thanks for the update Raoul. Can I ask what % of your NAV is now in BTC (and ETH?)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 09:40
      Around 70% of my liquid NAV.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    9 November 2020 @ 21:57
    Hi Raoul - given the piece on Lacy Hunt (i.e. the idea that QE money printing is essentially locked away in the CBs and can't get into the real economy), the idea that software eating the world, coupled with the aging demographics, how does one rationaise inflation, at all (with the exception that the Fed Act is changed, such that, Fed liabilities become legal tender)? To your point: "Now, if the world is saved then record amounts of stimulus in the system will potentially cause a spike in inflation..." But how so? Warm regards, Matt.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:04
      I dont. I am a dyed in the wool deflationist. Im just giving the other sides argument if Im wrong.
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      10 November 2020 @ 09:35
      Thanks Raoul - appreciate the feedback!
  • JR
    Josh R.
    10 November 2020 @ 07:00
    Hi Raoul, I’m based in Aus and my biggest concern with gold is the Aud climbing. Is it time to take a little risk off the table with gold. I’m evenly split between btc, Aussie equities and gold.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:46
    Hi Raoul, have you started looking at small positions in any sh!tcoins/altcoins yet?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:50
      No, dont have the bandwidth...
  • ES
    Edward S.
    9 November 2020 @ 20:04
    I'm giving uo on the dollar too. Cutting my losses and piling it into Bitcoin. Painful as I've been holding on for so long and if I'd acted sooner it could have bought many more BTC. But, no point sitting and watching it slide. All in BTC!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:06
      Ive kept a few positions but really want to focus on what counts - bitcoin, gold and bonds. Those are the big money makers right here, I think.
  • JS
    John S.
    9 November 2020 @ 21:31
    What about the TLT Options trade...keeping or letting it go too?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:05
      Keep for even add!
  • VD
    Violeta D.
    9 November 2020 @ 21:37
    Raoul, please help me understand this: the big moves in PM, interest rates, USD and equities seem to be contradictory. some of them are creaming inflation and some of them deflation. The volatility is so high, like something big happened, however nothing really that big happened. Hugely indebted companies like cruse lines are up 20-30% . I don't see these businesses coming back in the next 12 month, but someone is buying like they just reported 10% increase in profit margins. What do you think is the cause if this volatility,
    • VD
      Violeta D.
      9 November 2020 @ 22:09
      My other observation would be that not only the moves to the upside and downside are bigger but the reasons for those moves seems to be getting smaller and smaller.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:05
      Agreed. I think this move probably fades. I thought the dollar not going down was a "tell" and the bad price action in equities. I think its nose but still, I want to clean up positions and focus on the one where the truly big gains lie.
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    9 November 2020 @ 22:17
    Continue to accumulate TLT 19MAR21 170 C 100? Too late for Eurodollar?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:03
      no, both still good.
  • OA
    Obai A.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:18
    Hi Raoul, is the TLT trade still on the same? Is 170 still on hand in these circumstances?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 November 2020 @ 00:03
      yup.
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    9 November 2020 @ 21:28
    Love seeing the flash update(s) on big market events. Thanks!