Frenetic

Published on: December 14th, 2020

As we hurtle towards the end of the year, capital is on the move. Record buying of equities in the last few weeks completes a topping and tailing pattern of investor behaviour. Sell low, buy high. Hmmm. Wrapping up a fraught year, Julian looks forward to a dynamic and exciting 2021 as the vicissitudes of 2020 hopefully fade behind us.

Comments

  • HM
    Harry M. | Real Vision
    18 December 2020 @ 12:03
    Oh and for those looking for alternatives to EWU you could take a look at FTAL.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    15 December 2020 @ 13:11
    I always get excited when I receive an update from Julian in my inbox. This note didn't disappoint as he makes his biases crystal clear as to where he believes we can find alpha in 2021. Brilliant piece which is what we've come to expect from you and I wish your family and you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Years as well.
    • DD
      Donal D.
      17 December 2020 @ 02:29
      Like Miguel I also enjoy reading Julian's updates and advice. However just a question you mention receiving them in your inbox? Is this just a figure of speech or do you actually receive an email as I don't and I need to log on every day to ensure I'm not missing out on something important. I used to get flash updates etc. via email but that stopped quite some time ago. Appreciate others inputs on this Donal.
    • BK
      Brian K.
      17 December 2020 @ 13:57
      Donal, I receive an email with a link to reports.
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      17 December 2020 @ 20:16
      Hey Donal, I also receive an email whenever Julian or Raoul publish a piece. I think we actually get them in our inbox even before they hit the real vision website. Wish I could give you advice as to why your aren't receiving those alerts in your inbox but you definitely should be.
  • HM
    Harry M. | Real Vision
    17 December 2020 @ 16:01
    On behalf of JB, I wanted to wish you all a Merry Xmas/Happy Holidays.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    15 December 2020 @ 18:36
    Julian/Harry, you mention buying the FTSE "unhedged", would the EWU be a good substitute for retail investors? Since the EWU ETF is priced in dollars then if the British Pound goes up against the dollar (even if the equities stayed at the same price) the EWU would go up in value (if I understand how things work correctly). If the equities go up AND the pound goes up you get a double kicker! Please let me know if I have this wrong! Also Julian/Harry/Raoul/FellowMI'ers, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I have really enjoyed my MI experience and truly look forward to following you in 2021.
    • SC
      Sanjeev C.
      15 December 2020 @ 21:41
      When you sell -- I'd think the underlying equities would be sold in GBP and then USD purchased to pay you. So in buying EWU you are long dollar, short GBP and long FTSE
    • EC
      Edward C.
      16 December 2020 @ 13:14
      Richard, Sanjeev - the easiest way to think about this, if you are trading cross currency ETFs / Swaps etc. If you are long the ETF/swap, you are long the underlying currencies of the constituents and short the funding currency of the ETF/swap. Think about if you wanted to replicate this product yourself. As a USD investor, your funding ccy is USD. So you sell this USD to buy GBP. You use this GBP to buy the UK equities. If the equites don't move and GBP weakens, when you sell the equity and use your GBP proceeds to convert to USD, you have less USD and lost USD pnl. So as Richard mentioned, being long EMU, you are long equity. long GBP. short USD. Likewise if short the ETF, you are short the underlying currencies of constituents/long funding ccy. Example : EWU US USD px 29.5 GBPUSD 1.354 Implied gbp px 21.7872969 gbp px 21.7872969 GBPUSD 1.5 Implied usd px 32.68094535 => being long the ETF, you make USD pnl on GBP strength.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 December 2020 @ 15:52
      Yes EWU is a good choice. Bear in mind it is unhedged. So it will move with the currency.
  • NG
    Nicolas G.
    16 December 2020 @ 03:01
    On IB I’ve found ISF LSEETF. Looks about right. GBP denominated. Full name iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF. I’ll be buying this so hope it’s the right expression for the thesis!
    • JL
      J L.
      17 December 2020 @ 14:08
      What it's denominated in is irrelevant, I think what Julian is trying to say is to buy the shares on an unhedged basis, ie just buy the shares and have GBP exposure (unlike some ETFs that go short GBPUSD on top of owning the shares). Whether you own ISF or EWU or any other unhedged ETF makes no difference, just watch out for FX fees.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    16 December 2020 @ 04:10
    Thanks Julian. Merry Christmas and I wish you all the best to you and your family. This has been an incredible year to navigate and I always get excited to listen to your discussions with Raoul and read your updates. The more I follow you the more I learn about macro and trading. Cheers!
  • SC
    Sanjeev C.
    15 December 2020 @ 21:58
    Great update. Also learned two new words "vicissitude" and "ex-ante" :)
  • HH
    Hugh H.
    15 December 2020 @ 21:33
    As others said, I was not able to find out suitable vehicles in the US. Are there some ETFs we can play via InteractiveBrokers?
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    15 December 2020 @ 17:53
    Julian this is my first year as a RV Pro subscriber and I wanted to thank you for helping me to navigate this crazy year in markets. It’s hard to thank you enough for the stuff I’ve learned and the returns I’ve seen by applying your insights, as well as the entertaining jabs aimed at Raoul in your live calls. Don’t change a thing!
  • MC
    Marie C.
    15 December 2020 @ 06:43
    Hi Julian, is there any ETF that tracks closely the FTSE 100 index in the US? I can't seem to find any. Merry Christmas to you as well!
    • JL
      Jade L.
      15 December 2020 @ 12:39
      Was looking at this one - Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP Accumulation (VUKG.L), not sure if it's a good representation.
    • DE
      David E.
      15 December 2020 @ 15:21
      EWU (iShares MSCI UK) is the closest I've been able to find.