GMI Think Piece January 2020

Published on: February 3rd, 2020

Global Macro Investor (GMI) celebrates its 15-year anniversary by kicking off the new decade with Raoul’s famous January Think Piece. He blasts through the gates of the new decade by recounting the progress and failures of the past, while also setting his eye firmly on the future. Raoul updates readers on everything from his famed analysis of the monsoon region, major current positions, the impending retirement crisis and the future of energy. He also touches on current market conditions and the folly of the reflation trade. Using his superpower of identifying long term trends, this is a GMI issue you can’t afford to miss.


  • SV
    Sam V.
    5 April 2020 @ 04:52
    Got so much out of this Raoul as a window into thinking about what the next decade could look like thematically - thank you for making it so freely available.
  • HA
    Hammad A.
    7 March 2020 @ 15:17
    Hi Raoul, I am fan of your euro-dollar call :-) How can a retail trader setup below trade? Please guide the options. "If there is one hedge that could save your life, it is buying US 5-Year Investment Grade CDS. In the next recession, these are going to blow out as the BBB Doom Loop causes reflexive selling of all corporate bonds, as the BBBs get downgraded to junk. At 45bp per annum, how can you not have this on?"
  • JL
    Jack L.
    28 February 2020 @ 06:55
    Very valuable for RV GMI subscribers, even delayed a month or so. The bulk of the insights are strategic, not tactical. This piece will go in my research archive and will inform my investing & trading choices for the decade to come.
  • PF
    Patrick F.
    5 February 2020 @ 20:55
    Excellent overview. Is there a RV/GMI option available? Details? Almost Everything rang true except a Democrat victory. #SOTU listed a lot of accomplishments. A lot of things will be changing in the future. Will American's elect an academic with questionable ethics and no real world experience? Seems hard to believe. Globally movements are towards a more right wing approach. But it's good to examine the scenario.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      5 February 2020 @ 20:56
      We sent an email offer yesterday or day before....
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    4 February 2020 @ 02:55
    Raoul, thank you for posting this. I am not among those it is targeted to, as I am retired, and have nothing close to the net worth that might be able to justify an investment in GMI. On the other hand, I really enjoyed reading this issue, and it gave me a lot of food for thought. I subscribed to RV because I want its diverse and unbiased points of view (I know individuals interviewed may be biased, but RV as a whole appears to be honest), and I have not been disappointed. To me, this issue of GMI is just one of the wonderful bonuses that I get from RV.