In Focus Trade Portfolio – April 1, 2020

Published on: April 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update.

Comments

  • DR
    Derrick R.
    8 April 2020 @ 11:41
    Potentially more bad news for those of us long UUP, the prospectus has been updated yesterday, I take the below to mean that the ETF is perhaps not actually going to be able to follow DXY when it goes parabolic. Margin Requirements and Risk Limits for Futures Contracts may Limit the Fund’s Ability to Achieve Sufficient Exposure and Prevent the Fund from Achieving its Investment Objective https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383151/000119312520100249/0001193125-20-100249-index.htm
  • AK
    Adam K.
    7 April 2020 @ 12:31
    Why doesn't Raoul advise on stops?
  • WT
    William T.
    7 April 2020 @ 01:16
    Raoul , would GBTC be a decent way to play bitcoin ? Thanks
  • JF
    John F.
    1 April 2020 @ 22:52
    Julian, I'm not following your Silver trade recommendation Buy Silver (Stop / 11.5) May 20th ‘20 (entry date) Mar 13th (entry price)?? Can you clarify, thanks. Something seems like it got garbled. Thanks.
    • PF
      Pierre F.
      2 April 2020 @ 00:41
      I think he’s seeing the future :)
    • RA
      Robert A.
      2 April 2020 @ 04:19
      RV Pro members are paying the highest premium for these infrequent report, yet this one seems to be full of mistakes. Did somebody sling it together in a hurry. This is certainly the quality I thought I was paying for! How about providing a list to of potential trades? (e.g. what are the items on your watch that you intend to execute when your target price is reached?
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 April 2020 @ 16:05
      Agreed Robert. I'm at a small family office in EU. Difficult to short US stocks regarding to regulation, so I work mostly with options if I want to create a short position. With Hedgeye's in&out within a few days (often 1 day) it's very difficult to get the gains i'm looking for. Their quads and corresponding investments are great though as is their daily communication regarding all of this. I love to combine RV and Hedgeye.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 April 2020 @ 16:21
      Sorry, wanted to reply to Ivan B above but replied to the wrong one.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      6 April 2020 @ 22:21
      My fault. I had meant to look it up and got sidetracked. Should be: Entry March 20th. Entry level 12.62 Stop @ 11.50
  • JF
    John F.
    4 April 2020 @ 22:21
    Still waiting for RV to clarify Julian’s Silver trade recommendation, which makes no sense... See my April 1 comment. Thanks.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      6 April 2020 @ 22:20
      My fault. I had meant to look it up and got sidetracked. Should be Entry March 20th. Entry level 12.62. Stop @ 11.50
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    2 April 2020 @ 12:24
    Raoul et al may have noticed many of us have taken call options on UUP with expiration in June, September etc, well I see today on Twitter he comments that the timing is 18 months. For those of us taking this trade approach, does Raoul recommend holding or exiting these shorter positions in favor of calls expiring in ‘22?
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 April 2020 @ 13:01
      Good question, I would love to get some updates from him on this!
    • RK
      Robert K.
      2 April 2020 @ 14:29
      Probably exit those June calls. The way the UUP trade was communicated by RV has been a disaster, and the updating on this, has been a disaster as well... PS. if you can, get a second opinion if nobody else responds here. Good luck all.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      2 April 2020 @ 15:13
      @Robert I have been trying to bother Brent Johnson on Twitter (of the dollar milkshake thesis) to get timing.. no luck as of yet
    • KH
      Kavi H.
      2 April 2020 @ 15:13
      Would also love to see a response on this. Thanks.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      2 April 2020 @ 21:55
      For some reason RV is avoiding responses on this matter. The reality no one really knows, it seems however the June calls will be toast soon. My request to the RV team Is to come back with a response to all, even if it's a simple ”we really don't know” I will understand, but ignoring all these pro members clients is just not good business. Stay safe all.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      3 April 2020 @ 01:08
      @Saad I got an email today about a live discussion and member Q&A occurring tomorrow 2p ET. I replied with questions specifically around this matter, and will be tuning in to see the answers!
    • np
      nick p.
      3 April 2020 @ 03:26
      FWIW, in addition to futures, im in UUP june and sept calls, various strikes. I have been in and out of strangle and straight put positions to navigate the chop as the fed tries to continuously plug leaky holes in literally every aspect of the market. there is plenty of game left before either expiry to jump out and look for a better entry or roll.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      3 April 2020 @ 05:22
      Thank you @Derrick will tune in as well.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      4 April 2020 @ 11:39
      Hi all, The timing of this call is not around a finite fixed date. It is a unknown path of time but a more known path of price. Thus, when you are using shorter dated calls, your expression is for a quick and powerful event. However, this is a long term opportunity. Currencies might spike and then fall but they usually trend strongly over time. You might use short dated options for breakouts. You might hold a long in the ETF and then add calls when you think there might be some fast price action. Or you could buy long-dated calls but with high volatility you pay a lot for them, so that will lower the risk reward a bit. You can layer short and longer term options too. It all depends on your time horizon and how you see the trade develop. Hence, there is no easy answer... not for me, not for you. So we all do our best to grapple the best risk rewards out of this. I find technical analysis help establish those times when the price rushes higher. The UUP is not the best expression of the trade because it is primarily Euro, GBP and Yen. EM currencies for example have been much weaker, as has AUD etc. but I know many of you cant trade these so although UUP is sub-optimal, it is still a way to play the trade.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:13
    Could this be a real time page instead of issuing it once a month? So anytime we could click on the page and see the current positions as of the time we clicked.
    • AA
      Alex A.
      2 April 2020 @ 01:00
      this would be wildly helpful
    • GP
      Greg P.
      2 April 2020 @ 06:40
      Agreed! That would be helpful. Also, if they could fix up all the mistakes.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 April 2020 @ 06:53
      That would really help indeed. So far, RV is not reacting on any suggestions by it's members. I hope they will read this and consider it.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      2 April 2020 @ 10:38
      From a technical standpoint, we'll look at how this can be implemented given that these reports are written so having real-time data is a challenge.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      2 April 2020 @ 10:43
      Daniel, we read all the comments and we think about how we can improve the experience. The format you see right now, 3 monthly reports, one Insiders Talks was started back in 2017. This format has been very appreciated. Over time we added Trade Portfolios, Ask me Anythings and now Quarterly Calls. I'm certain this will make the tier even more popular and ultimately provide the value that you seek. All these improvements came over time. I know these are tough times and knowing Raoul and Julian, both of them work extremely hard to bring you timely update.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      2 April 2020 @ 18:57
      Perhaps a live excel uploaded on Google Docs accessible for RV PRO subscribers. This would be quite easy to implement within minutes and would be live.
    • jy
      jingdong y.
      4 April 2020 @ 08:21
      HEDGEYE has similar content but on short term trades, its call real time alerts. all their entry and exits prices are timped stamped and archieved. RV pro certainly can look into that and maybe develope a superior model ?
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    3 April 2020 @ 20:08
    How do we get notified when a new trade gets published. It seems the report is a monthly thing but trades can happen any day?
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      4 April 2020 @ 01:01
      Philipp, they usually issue flash updates when there's a trade. Some trades come from the video updates, but mostly flash updates.
  • MR
    Milton R. | Founder
    3 April 2020 @ 15:00
    Hi everyone, As we talked a few days ago about this I wanted to follow up and confirm that all the feedback that you sent through is being taken into account and we will continue to evolve the format. We've always had and we'll always will. M
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    2 April 2020 @ 07:14
    Quite sloppy guys. Not impressed given the price. Also expected a lot more frequent content.
    • AT
      Alun T.
      2 April 2020 @ 09:42
      Agreed....new to Pro. Slightly underwhelmed ATM. Also pay for Hedgeye (same price roughly), and getting huge amount of daily content.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 April 2020 @ 10:22
      Same here, also new to Pro and a long time Hedgeye member. Think there are great opportunities for RV but they just ignore comments.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      2 April 2020 @ 10:35
      Hey folks, The Pro tier give you access to everything we have on Real Vision. From daily briefings to live talks and reports from Raoul and Julian. Pro in itself features 3 monthly reports from Raoul and Julian, one Insiders talks and regular Flash Updates. The number of flash updates in the last 2 months has been more than ever. I won't go down the route of commenting the financial advice as I am not good with this but to my understanding, the research that Raoul and Julian publish is aimed for long term investments and trades meaning that if they know a flash update is needed, they will post it. If they don't write about it then it's best you continue on the same road. Any other issues reported here will be looked into. Thanks for writing about them.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      2 April 2020 @ 14:05
      Guys, this is the biggest amount of content in a long time. It's different from Hedgeye as it's more long term, not daily updates. Both Raoul and Julien did a great job last months keeping everyone up-to-date. I'm subscribed to both as well and the quality of trades is different. Here's a lot more leverage - opportunity to make more money. I personally made more money with MI, not Hedgeye, but it could be just the way I trade. Just I thought I would share my experience, cause usually it's even less content. For me it's quality, not the volume what's important. But again, we are all different. I enjoyed more RV when it was more expensive with just a few long form interviews in a week.
    • TH
      Tom H.
      3 April 2020 @ 02:19
      How you could consider RV sloppy when they are providing a level of access that is unprecedented for this price level is beyond me. During the worse pandemic we've ever seen and a global economic meltdown no less! I have made far more money because of RV than I could have possibly expected. The lack of gratitude and appreciation of this comment is astounding.
  • rc
    raj c.
    2 April 2020 @ 01:27
    On 23rd March, Raoul published a trade reco to buy 10Y bond or TLT. In this publication I see he closed it out on Feb 29th!!
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      2 April 2020 @ 03:20
      No I think that was an older trade and he has since got back into 10Y Bond, check the flash updates I think it was his Flash Update from Mar 23
    • rc
      raj c.
      2 April 2020 @ 09:10
      thanks Derrick, you are right.
  • MJ
    Madhu J.
    2 April 2020 @ 08:52
    can you clearly list open trades as of today ? and what are you recommending now ?
  • JM
    John M.
    1 April 2020 @ 19:41
    I am surprised you are not putting SPY puts back on after this rally...just given the unemployment data, fact that buybacks are basically all suspended, seems like a layup that SPY will fall over the next few weeks? Concerns about vol still trump the possible payoff?
    • AA
      Alex A.
      2 April 2020 @ 01:00
      kinda expensive tho right?
    • JL
      Jack L.
      2 April 2020 @ 03:29
      Are SPY (or VOO) puts the new vanity trade? It almost seems TOO easy.. How can the market do anything other than re-test the lows & likely puncture them sometime in the coming few weeks? Anything that easy makes me suspicious -- but I went ahead and bought some Oct. 16th $180 VOO PUTs anyway.
    • np
      nick p.
      2 April 2020 @ 03:51
      SPY hedges are definitely expansive right now, but fun to trade around. I have been a little more focused on IWM since they probably have a little less ability to get capital [as quickly].
    • JM
      John M.
      2 April 2020 @ 05:17
      I strongly considered IWM, but I don't think valuations were quite as high going into this, and its already down more than SPY. On the other hand, smaller business are probably at high risk.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 April 2020 @ 06:58
      I agree on short IWM. I have been trading it as well in the last weeks. Also consider short QQQ or XLK. Tech is still widely owned.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    1 April 2020 @ 19:44
    Is the rumor true that Norways fund will sell out?
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      2 April 2020 @ 06:07
      You mean this? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/norway-takes-cash-from-wealth-fund-for-first-time-since-may-2018
  • WM
    Will M.
    1 April 2020 @ 22:21
    I thought Raoul recently recommended TLT and so I may have missed a sell reco for it, I am still holding it for a 2% gain.
    • JM
      John M.
      1 April 2020 @ 22:40
      Believe the trade was buy 10-yr treasuries, but TLT as an alternate to that.
    • AA
      Alex A.
      2 April 2020 @ 00:59
      ya, same trade (sort of) short rates
  • MC
    Michael C.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:31
    How can the entry date for Buy Silver be May 20th 2020? Its only April !
    • MD
      Mike D.
      1 April 2020 @ 22:09
      The entry price for Raoul's Bitcoin recommendation also appears to be incorrect. Please go over the document carefully to look for other errors, so that we can have confidence counting on it being right. Thanks.
  • AS
    Arpat S.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:42
    Do the new repo lines to be opened for other central banks in addition to the Swap lines change the thesis on the dollar trade? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-settling-into-its-role-as-the-worlds-central-bank-11585732095?mod=article_inline "The Fed will allow foreign central banks to use their U.S. government bonds as collateral for short-term dollar borrowing, under its new repo facility. The scheme begins April 6 and is scheduled to last six months." " It augments other existing facilities like the dollar-swap lines that the Fed has already expanded."