In Focus Trade Portfolio – February 1, 2020

Published on: February 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we will update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice is given in subsequent In Focus publications or any Flash Update.

Comments

  • TH
    Tim H.
    6 May 2020 @ 17:46
    Xme is not in the portfolio which should be there as should be eww.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    24 March 2020 @ 05:02
    Adding the comment here that I made on the flash update. Please try to provide an updated centralised location for all the trades ideas, current, new, closed, conditional. At the moment this document is never updated for example when flash updates come out. Some of those updates are also not document driven but video driven with the recommendation buried somewhere in the video and needs to be searched for. This is causing trade ideas to be fragmented across different resources and with fast moving markets time is critical. Subscribers need to be able to quickly access one single go to document where all trade recommendations and any changes to them are stored. These trading portfolios need to be updated as soon as Raoul and Julian make changes to their recommendations or add new positions etc. Having it updated only once a month is inadequate I feel anyway and even more so in the current state of fast moving markets. Thanks!
  • VR
    Vince R.
    28 February 2020 @ 19:08
    Gents, any take on why Gold went up the first day or two of the "correction" we are witnessing and then has continued to head down each day (down almost 70 as I write)? Gold always seems to be viewed as a "safe haven asset". It doesn't seem to be acting that way right now. Thoughts?
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      29 February 2020 @ 02:42
      Liquidity. Folks selling their gold to meet the margin calls on stocks.
  • JP
    J P.
    28 February 2020 @ 01:57
    Gentlemen, you don’t need me to tell you this, but: there are some really special calls that appear be to materializing in here. I bought this service for Rauol’s pulse on things and ability to connect disparate dots like few can. I knew little about Julian before subscribing to this service, but the gent seems to have a knack for identifying trends that have juice and then getting onboard (eg Apple and Nasdaq shorts). Both extremely beneficial and unique in purpose as I approach this market and position my young family for the future. Thank you both.
    • JP
      J P.
      28 February 2020 @ 02:01
      *Raoul
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    11 February 2020 @ 04:52
    Adding this comment here as well as on the latest insider talks with Harry M. This comment refers to current positioning (and by now the NDX and SPX trades have stopped out with growth/value trade still against after the double down recommendation) but first I want to mention that I just watched Raoul's Skype repo-rama on RVTV. Ending the piece with Barton was the icing on the cake. A proper deep dive insight into repo even though not all questions answered and probably never will be because it seems nobody really knows! However, I think there were a few light bulb moments in there for anyone trying to wrap their heads around repo and liquidity mechanisms. Essential viewing at precisely the right time given the current state of both the equity and bond markets so thanks for creating that film as I know I asked for something like that in one of my earlier message on MI. "Ask and thou shalt receive" :) So it brings up some questions I have for current MI positioning (see further down this post). An outstanding question I had from the repo film was what's causing the shortage in cash? At the end Raoul tried to say it was likely because market participants such as hedge funds need more cash every day to fund their new positions and day to day business. If that is so and presumably those positions are mainly relative value positions made up of trades in bonds and equities of all flavours and varieties, is this finally confirmation that the Fed and Treasury General Account (TGA) pumping cash on a regular basis into the system is simply being siphoned off and traded because the users of that low interest rate cash are doing with it what most people do when they can borrow cheap money which is to leverage that money and use it to invest in products where they can get a much higher return and then they finesse their choice of positions based on the repayment timeline. So whether it is QE, long dated, not QE, short dated they trade accordingly and that all works fine with low volatility, low rates at the margin and equities and stocks only going in one direction. The problem comes as was given in the example on the film by one of the other commentators, when rates swing not only to the higher end of the band (due to less cash more securities and less liquidity available) but also spike well over (for example in September last year to nearly 10%) then relative value hedge funds are forced to close positions to manage total risk and position sizing on their books as they would be concerned about being able to repay the cash loan at much higher interest than expected and also not knowing how long those sudden higher rates might occur for, potentially exacerbating the problem. I am leaving regulatory minimum reserve requirements for banks and hedge funds out of this as presumably they are a fixed, assumed part of the liquidity puzzle and not really the ongoing driving factor behind the constant need for liquidity. Comes back to my original question how and why are liquidity shortages occurring if everyone's supposedly making money hand over fist being long equities in a low volatility and low interest rate environment? Is greed for placing ever more new positions and new business what is driving the constant demand? When is enough enough? Is this in simple terms the mechanisms that are creating both the steady march up (sometimes explosive in growth stocks) of equities? Likewise if shortage of cash and sudden rate spikes cause sudden drops in equity markets and the market participants rely on more liquidity being pumped into the system whether from Fed repo, future QE or the TGA to restore order and marginal interest rates then surely this is the argument to explain why bonds and equities are rising basically at the same time and that it will go on for a considerable period of time especially when Barton suggested that it's the TGA that has all the ammo now really and that they can use it to add liquidity much quicker than the way the Fed does at the moment (notwithstanding any future official QE that takes place). If this is the case then I question the vanity equity trades on at the moment (short S&P, Short NDX both since stopped out at time of writing), short Apple) and the taking off of the short USD/MXN trade which acts as a hedge when the current MI portfolio (speaking from the point of view of when I joined MI only a few months ago) doesn't have one that deals with risk on/long equities going on for the foreseeable future (as growth value play that had double down recommendation also still close to stopping out as a kind of hedge). My next question is about the current bond positioning. At the moment we have long dated Eurodollar, ED calls, TLT or 10 year notes. Based on the repo film again where it talks about front dated and long dated changes with regard to trying to uninvert the yield curve, can someone explain what the relative implications are for price action across the tradable bonds set i.e. from treasury bills to 2 year to 10 year and longer. What are the risks to price action to all of them individually and relative to each other in both an inverted yield curve, a flat yield curve and a rising yield curve. Does the optimal treasury bill/note to be long of (in the case of inverted with rates going to zero) need to change? Are 10 year notes or TLT simply more likely to accelerate in price action to the upside in price with a steepening inversion on the curve relative to short dated treasury bills and are therefore the preferred ones?
  • JM
    Jeroen M.
    3 February 2020 @ 15:53
    Happy MI subscriber but sorry to say the Buy Dec 2021 Eurodollar Futures Jan24th'20 98.53 26 Ticks is not really correct. It was triggered through alerts when well past the 98.6 as revised level to justify a buy signal. If I am correct, it did not trade below the 98.6 since and saw steep rise since. Great call in any case from Raoul but think the 98.53 level for MI subscribers is not the correct reference point.
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      3 February 2020 @ 16:23
      Same for TLT but it is fine. Not tracking performance here on YoY basis.
    • RT
      Remi T.
      3 February 2020 @ 20:51
      Thank you Jeroen to point this out. The update was published at 15:23 on Jan 24th, The price of EDZ0 at 15:27 was 98.57. I will amend the entry price to reflect this in our next portfolion update.
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      4 February 2020 @ 11:35
      No worries. If you want to replace that one you should consider to do TLT too, open was at 141.30 and was low of the day. Raoul's initial trigger level was also on that level. 140.9x was on close 23 jan. Level Raoul wanted to see in order to make trade rec (flash update) was 141.2. Think that should be the ref point then. Still very well timed call.
    • RT
      Remi T.
      4 February 2020 @ 22:03
      I am changing it too. Thanks
  • AA
    Andrew A.
    3 February 2020 @ 15:41
    I use Saxo Markets (UK) to trade Futures and Options and I'm getting myself in a bit of a pickle trying to follow Raoul's Eurodollar recommendations. So far I've bought Eurodollar Call Options Dec 20 (Strike 99) and more recently Eurodollar Call Options Dec 21 (Strike 99.375). I was sure Raoul recommended the latter but this On Focus update says the recommendation is to Buy Dec 2021 Eurodollar Futures! There's no mention of a strike price. Please could Raoul clarify. Thanks. Andrew
    • JM
      Jeroen M.
      3 February 2020 @ 15:56
      Think he used that as an example and uses the price of the future contract as a reference which makes sense for technical analysis purposes etc.
    • RT
      Remi T.
      3 February 2020 @ 20:42
      Hi Andrew Raoul's recomendation was as follow: Buy December 2021 Eurodollar Futures or call options(Dec 2021 99.375 as a suggestion) We simply decided to keep the futures position for the portfolio, but you were right to buy Dec 21 call 99.375.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      4 February 2020 @ 11:45
      Thanks Remi. I thought I was going crazy for a moment there!
  • AT
    Andy T.
    3 February 2020 @ 19:02
    Really enjoy reading the RV publication. Did well with TLT. Otherwise not so sure.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    3 February 2020 @ 15:47
    How well the gold/silver stocks do during this downturn? I have my own thoughts but I would like some comments. I am also thinking of shorting WTI due to the ugly virus. Dont think we are being told the entire truth about it. I heard that a dog had been diagnosed with corona. Dog never got sick but gave it to people. Has anyone tested the birds?
    • JI
      Janne I.
      3 February 2020 @ 16:34
      Should do very well. I think gold stocks as leveraged gold. Not a store of value but as a trade.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.