In Focus Trade Portfolio – July 1, 2020

Published on: July 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update. Please note that in this updated portfolio, some of the stops on open trades have been moved.

Comments

  • BF
    Brad F.
    1 July 2020 @ 18:27
    Join 287 fellow pro members and 2 realvision founders in the unofficial slack chat room to discuss how we are all playing and risk managing our RV Pro positions. https://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans The participation in the slack has been incredible with really high quality conversations. Thanks to everyone who has contributed.
    • MS
      Micah S.
      16 July 2020 @ 22:54
      link no longer active... how do we join?
  • AD
    Andrew D.
    5 July 2020 @ 06:49
    Can we get some more recent/updated trades. I subscribed to pro mainly for trade-recommendations, not more macro analysis fluff. Struggling to see value in pro over essential right now.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    3 July 2020 @ 13:07
    Raoul- you speak often about liking gold long, but choose not to carry any direct gold exposure since closing out the miners in late Feb. I know you have a long-term approach so why not stick with it?
    • NP
      Nick P.
      4 July 2020 @ 01:28
      maybe physical?
    • BF
      Brad F.
      4 July 2020 @ 06:39
      Raoul has said that he has 25% of his net worth in gold.
  • HM
    Hazvinei M.
    3 July 2020 @ 23:34
    I cannot speak for others, but for me I've taken the In-Focus suggestions as an aspect of total portfolio construction, i.e. trades to compliment the bigger picture. I try to make sure I size each position that I take accordingly per my portfolio size and the amount allocated to trades. I'm not going to retire on a single trade nor am I blowing up my account, but each time the risk-reward contributes to the probability that my returns are positive over time. I have had to learn over the years that sizing is key and having the right risk reward in place, don't get over your skis.
    • NP
      Nick P.
      4 July 2020 @ 01:26
      i went back and forth on posting something similar, so i am going to piggy back off you. :) I took the same approach with mixing some of the recommendations into my own port. some did well, others did not. its all about sizing. also, if you are going to go big right out of the gate, hedging is key. also, if you like and follow a company/sector/asset class/whatever that isn't on the recommendation list, why not buy/keeping hold those, in addition to some of the suggestions in the presentations that resonate with you. p.s. just bc other people mentioned it, im still holding uup, zt opts... GL all!
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    3 July 2020 @ 05:09
    I know. Although the 2yr and 5yr trades are short term as well.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    2 July 2020 @ 08:39
    Can't say I'm really thrilled by Raoul's trades so far. As a subscriber since March I lost money on UUP calls and bonds so far. BTC is flat and Gold brought some profits. Overall still down since then which is frustrating as people around me are making nice gains in this rally. I have doubts if we are going in this solvency fase really. And if we are going there, the big tech stocks probably don't care and will continue their way up. Currently bad news is good for markets (more stimulus hopes) and good news is good as is means the economy is recovering.
    • TK
      Tadej K.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:04
      Yes, 23rd of March was an inflection point (unlimited QE + potentially unlimited fiscal action) that Raoul has missed. And after that he insisted that there was no inflection point and doubled down down the road. On the other hand, Julian nailed it both ways. Its just not him that I have subscribed to follow... unfortunately.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:10
      Same here. I didn't really follow Julian before I subscribed to Pro. In hindsight he did very well in the last 2/3 months.
    • WE
      William E.
      2 July 2020 @ 16:20
      You probably already know this but just in case: Julian's focus is more short/medium term and Raoul's more medium/long. Best of luck!
  • TK
    Tadej K.
    1 July 2020 @ 23:14
    Raoul, what would change your mind about EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY trades? You have no stops set and this FX trades have gone in wrong direction - especially risk off ones (AUD, GBP and EUR) , while JPY short as a more standard risk on bet also didn't perform in the environment where most risk assets did. Writing on the wall is: Dollar is not performing as we hoped it will. It has gone against us in a big big way! We should have closed positions right on the date when broad risk bottomed on 23 march (unlimited QE announced, everything has changed since that moment, except our positions) or few day early when you closed s&p short and sold puts or a few days latter. Why didn't you close Dollar trades than? Did you underestimate the FED/QE/fiscal policy? You even added on than. And added on even more later (short EUR). And since March 23rd it has never worked. Contrary, it has hurt/costed a lot! Do you see any signs that this can change? Because I (and I believe I am not the only one here) was having the best performance of my life until March 23rd. But until than those losing FX trades have costed me all gains. And being on the losing side constantly more than 3 months in the row is no fun. I mean, even CNH has regained its ground against the USD. So, what would make you change your mind on the Dollar? Or let me ask you differently: Where do you see any signs that the Dollar is still somehow lucrative bet that can explode higher?
    • TK
      Tadej K.
      2 July 2020 @ 08:58
      And a few hours latter I capitulated. 3 and a half months to late. Only decaying options are still left in my portfolios, all spot positions closed. And a big hole that reminds me how bad it can be to follow gurus - because they make you more confident than you should be and make you blind when reality obviously doesn't follow their thesis. Experience of losing 100k$ while being straightforward wrong 3 and a half months in the teeth of the very big market move is not quite worth the subscription, but maybe I have learned something at least...
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:08
      Am also thinking of closing all long USD positions. I still think it might have some legs but options keep losing their time value and it might take many more months before it plays out. I will do it gradually over the coming 2/3 weeks.
  • CF
    Chris F.
    1 July 2020 @ 18:03
    DBA trade came very close to stop, then reversed. Julian, a while back you put up a chart or the mortgage reit ETF, MORT, as an indicator of economic recovery. It ran up in late may, first week of June, now consiolidating. Would love to hear your commentary on MORT in the next video review. Raoul, Bitcoin seems to have had a difficult time getting through 10,000 and there may be some factors that could lead to a better buying opportunity this year. (Public bullish sentiment peaking around halfing, supply of Pluscoin sellers). Could you give us your view on what lower pricepoint would change your view on BTC. thanks Chris

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.