In Focus Trade Portfolio – July 1, 2020

Published on: July 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update. Please note that in this updated portfolio, some of the stops on open trades have been moved.

Comments

  • BF
    Brad F.
    1 July 2020 @ 18:27
    Join 287 fellow pro members and 2 realvision founders in the unofficial slack chat room to discuss how we are all playing and risk managing our RV Pro positions. https://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans The participation in the slack has been incredible with really high quality conversations. Thanks to everyone who has contributed.
    • MS
      Micah S.
      16 July 2020 @ 22:54
      link no longer active... how do we join?
  • AD
    Andrew D.
    5 July 2020 @ 06:49
    Can we get some more recent/updated trades. I subscribed to pro mainly for trade-recommendations, not more macro analysis fluff. Struggling to see value in pro over essential right now.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    3 July 2020 @ 13:07
    Raoul- you speak often about liking gold long, but choose not to carry any direct gold exposure since closing out the miners in late Feb. I know you have a long-term approach so why not stick with it?
    • np
      nick p.
      4 July 2020 @ 01:28
      maybe physical?
    • BF
      Brad F.
      4 July 2020 @ 06:39
      Raoul has said that he has 25% of his net worth in gold.
  • HM
    Hazvinei M.
    3 July 2020 @ 23:34
    I cannot speak for others, but for me I've taken the In-Focus suggestions as an aspect of total portfolio construction, i.e. trades to compliment the bigger picture. I try to make sure I size each position that I take accordingly per my portfolio size and the amount allocated to trades. I'm not going to retire on a single trade nor am I blowing up my account, but each time the risk-reward contributes to the probability that my returns are positive over time. I have had to learn over the years that sizing is key and having the right risk reward in place, don't get over your skis.
    • np
      nick p.
      4 July 2020 @ 01:26
      i went back and forth on posting something similar, so i am going to piggy back off you. :) I took the same approach with mixing some of the recommendations into my own port. some did well, others did not. its all about sizing. also, if you are going to go big right out of the gate, hedging is key. also, if you like and follow a company/sector/asset class/whatever that isn't on the recommendation list, why not buy/keeping hold those, in addition to some of the suggestions in the presentations that resonate with you. p.s. just bc other people mentioned it, im still holding uup, zt opts... GL all!
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    3 July 2020 @ 05:09
    I know. Although the 2yr and 5yr trades are short term as well.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    2 July 2020 @ 08:39
    Can't say I'm really thrilled by Raoul's trades so far. As a subscriber since March I lost money on UUP calls and bonds so far. BTC is flat and Gold brought some profits. Overall still down since then which is frustrating as people around me are making nice gains in this rally. I have doubts if we are going in this solvency fase really. And if we are going there, the big tech stocks probably don't care and will continue their way up. Currently bad news is good for markets (more stimulus hopes) and good news is good as is means the economy is recovering.
    • TK
      Tadej K.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:04
      Yes, 23rd of March was an inflection point (unlimited QE + potentially unlimited fiscal action) that Raoul has missed. And after that he insisted that there was no inflection point and doubled down down the road. On the other hand, Julian nailed it both ways. Its just not him that I have subscribed to follow... unfortunately.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:10
      Same here. I didn't really follow Julian before I subscribed to Pro. In hindsight he did very well in the last 2/3 months.
    • WE
      William E.
      2 July 2020 @ 16:20
      You probably already know this but just in case: Julian's focus is more short/medium term and Raoul's more medium/long. Best of luck!
  • TK
    Tadej K.
    1 July 2020 @ 23:14
    Raoul, what would change your mind about EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY trades? You have no stops set and this FX trades have gone in wrong direction - especially risk off ones (AUD, GBP and EUR) , while JPY short as a more standard risk on bet also didn't perform in the environment where most risk assets did. Writing on the wall is: Dollar is not performing as we hoped it will. It has gone against us in a big big way! We should have closed positions right on the date when broad risk bottomed on 23 march (unlimited QE announced, everything has changed since that moment, except our positions) or few day early when you closed s&p short and sold puts or a few days latter. Why didn't you close Dollar trades than? Did you underestimate the FED/QE/fiscal policy? You even added on than. And added on even more later (short EUR). And since March 23rd it has never worked. Contrary, it has hurt/costed a lot! Do you see any signs that this can change? Because I (and I believe I am not the only one here) was having the best performance of my life until March 23rd. But until than those losing FX trades have costed me all gains. And being on the losing side constantly more than 3 months in the row is no fun. I mean, even CNH has regained its ground against the USD. So, what would make you change your mind on the Dollar? Or let me ask you differently: Where do you see any signs that the Dollar is still somehow lucrative bet that can explode higher?
    • TK
      Tadej K.
      2 July 2020 @ 08:58
      And a few hours latter I capitulated. 3 and a half months to late. Only decaying options are still left in my portfolios, all spot positions closed. And a big hole that reminds me how bad it can be to follow gurus - because they make you more confident than you should be and make you blind when reality obviously doesn't follow their thesis. Experience of losing 100k$ while being straightforward wrong 3 and a half months in the teeth of the very big market move is not quite worth the subscription, but maybe I have learned something at least...
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:08
      Am also thinking of closing all long USD positions. I still think it might have some legs but options keep losing their time value and it might take many more months before it plays out. I will do it gradually over the coming 2/3 weeks.
  • CF
    Chris F.
    1 July 2020 @ 18:03
    DBA trade came very close to stop, then reversed. Julian, a while back you put up a chart or the mortgage reit ETF, MORT, as an indicator of economic recovery. It ran up in late may, first week of June, now consiolidating. Would love to hear your commentary on MORT in the next video review. Raoul, Bitcoin seems to have had a difficult time getting through 10,000 and there may be some factors that could lead to a better buying opportunity this year. (Public bullish sentiment peaking around halfing, supply of Pluscoin sellers). Could you give us your view on what lower pricepoint would change your view on BTC. thanks Chris