In Focus Trade Portfolio – November 1, 2019

Published on: November 1st, 2019

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we will update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice is given in subsequent In Focus publications or any Flash Update.

Comments

  • JW
    JW2 W.
    15 November 2019 @ 13:23
    Would like to see an update as well. PLus it would be great if we can get more precise recommendation re what instrument to buy (“Buy Gold” - ok, but...spot, GDX, ETF’s, other...). Same with Platinum (spot, ETF, specific miner, etc). Same with Bonds. Thanks in advance. Jw
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    7 November 2019 @ 02:24
    Hi Raoul What method would you recommend to gaining exposure to Bitcoin? Would you recommend avenues like Gemini or Coinbase or cold wallets with private keys? Also what is a sensible allocation to bitcoin in a portfolio? Thanks, keen to seek you input on the above! LYO
    • JS
      Jim S.
      12 November 2019 @ 05:04
      the cash app by square offers it. GBTC in a brokerage window can offer exposure... and I think that robinhood offers it. I know I'm not Raoul but just trying to help. Dan Tapiero interview in the past couple of weeks talked about %exposure, I can't remember exactly his thought but I remember it being very small.
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    11 November 2019 @ 13:04
    Dear R and J - we are all eagerly waiting for your insightful replies to the queries below! Have a good evening
  • TS
    Tyler S.
    7 November 2019 @ 17:10
    you all need to retouch the eurodollar play. seems the head and shoulders has broken to the down side
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      8 November 2019 @ 07:11
      Yes please!
  • RM
    R M.
    7 November 2019 @ 19:02
    Raoul and Julian: It appears to this admittedly untrained eye that a lot of shifts occurred late September, early October. Both long duration bonds and precious metals peaked and have been down the last 10 weeks. At the same time, European banks (via EUFN) double bottomed, and the world stock markets (ACWX) started a nice 10 week run, of course US markets breaking higher. XLE also bottomed same time, and commodities have picked up with some signs of inflation. Am not suggesting this is a new trend, but clearly as we entered September, macro land shifted, at least for now. I am inserting this comment because I am hoping you write about it! The bond trade has largely round tripped, and the metals are near Julian's well place stop signals. Are stocks going to continue to rip, or should we reload the bond trade? When will the metals sniff out inflation, rather than trade with rates? Interesting times. Looking forward to hearing your discussion.
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      7 November 2019 @ 19:32
      These are indeed interesting times. This seems like a big head fake to me. The market is pricing in a successful mid-cycle adjustment by the Fed, and assumes the trade war progress will take care of the rest. To me this is a huge opportunity to call that bluff, but I'm very curious to hear thoughts from Raoul and Julian as well. RV published a great interview with Darius today talking about much of these dynamics.
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      8 November 2019 @ 02:37
      Yes, Raoul and Julian please update us on your view on the above! Particularly on the long bond and ED trades.. Last I read the recent bound in yields were more likely than not a "gift" to bond and ED bulls
  • MB
    Michael B.
    7 November 2019 @ 18:50
    Again, no idea why the trade rec to short stocks at the lows in December has disappeared from the record...
  • EC
    Emily C.
    4 November 2019 @ 17:45
    Should we be exiting our Eurodollar position?
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      6 November 2019 @ 13:09
      I might be a glutton for punishment here, but I'm inclined to go the other way. QE lite, might address short term funding pressures but it does little to reverse the slowing data. As global data firms and US data continues to soften, the Fed will probably feel the need to play catch up. Closely watching labor. If that starts to roll, (and we just got a glimpse of some ugly openings data), Fed will act fast. Would love Raoul and Julian's take.
    • PM
      Philip M.
      7 November 2019 @ 13:43
      EDZ20 update?
  • JR
    John R.
    6 November 2019 @ 18:35
    I am an original Real Vision subscriber and a new Macro Insider.. I am interested in the eurodollar trade. Is that something that you would put it on now? If so would it be the December 2020?
  • JD
    Jarod D.
    6 November 2019 @ 15:26
    I just got an email notifying me of this update, 5 days after it was published. Macro Insiders really seems to be the neglected product at RV. I kinda regret paying so much for it.
    • RH
      Rob H.
      6 November 2019 @ 16:47
      Yep, I just got the same email. For what you pay for this it seems like they would do a better job with the communications. I check this site often so I read this report days ago.
    • DV
      Didier V.
      6 November 2019 @ 16:55
      The publishing data are always the same: 1, 14 and 21. No need to come every day but i agree MI needs some care.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    5 November 2019 @ 13:23
    I suggest bringing on a Product manager for MI. Its a great concept but just merge it into RV and charge a small premium above for those who wish to get a look at trades.
  • BG
    Benjamin G.
    4 November 2019 @ 17:55
    Is this trade portfolio considered our weekly update for Macro Insiders? What happened with GOOGL, even though the $DXY kept hiking up?
  • YG
    Yves G.
    2 November 2019 @ 13:40
    Are those positions committed with the intention to have a global long/short beta neutral portfolio based on macro economics?