In Focus Trade Portfolio – September 3, 2019

Published on: September 3rd, 2019

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we will update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice is given in subsequent In Focus publications or any Flash Update.

Comments

  • Bs
    B s.
    12 September 2019 @ 14:03
    Guys - love the service. Question: Given the fact I have been a real estate guy my whole career trading is new to me. That said, I have bought stocks my whole career. Just wondering if you have a reference book on how one manages their book? For example, if I start with $500,000 to trade macro insiders recommendations, how much should you invest with anyone trade, etc? Thanks
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      13 September 2019 @ 14:37
      Position sizing is a big deal and somewhat of an art. You can, of course, define your risk parameters and make it more systematic (risk (difference between entry & stop) as a percent of total capital for every trade; or allocate a maximum percentage of total capital to any one position). I'd also love their take, as long time macro guys, on position sizing as I understand the genius in macro is finding the 10-20x trade that no one is positioned for, which enables a huge return on total capital without taking unduly outsized risk. You can get a glimpse of this in the ED call spread they have on the book (3 ticks to 20 ticks). It has the potential to deliver 47 total ticks on a cost of 3 ticks (>15x). If you risk 5% of total capital on a trade like that it has the ability to return over 75% on the whole account. But that's the question isn't it? 5% on a single trade is a very aggressive position. It doesn't afford any margin for error in a string of losing trades. Systematically being more risk averse and only risking 50-100BPs will protect your capital (both monetary and emotional) against the deleterious geometric affect of losing (a 10% loss requires an 11% gain, but a 50% loss requires 100% gain). Knowing when to get aggressive and when to test the waters is likely the difference between the traders you read about and the ones you don't.
  • CL
    Charl L.
    13 September 2019 @ 09:21
    Did our Eurodollar position just got shot or do we add more?
  • MB
    Michael B.
    11 September 2019 @ 21:46
    Why are the short equity trades from Dec-18 not listed ?
  • DS
    David S.
    11 September 2019 @ 14:57
    GDX - closed dates seem wrong for Julian or Raoul respectively... correct it, otherwise will hurt the readers' deep mind.. Raoul still hold it or both closed it out Aug 21?
  • BH
    Blake H.
    5 September 2019 @ 03:42
    With brexit up in the air, Hong Kong reducing tension and now China and USA setting a trade talk in Oct, should we be expecting a decline in gold price? Or perhaps just a slow down in its price growth? Just want to make sure that I don’t let emotions dictate my decisions as things seems to be calming down. Would be great if either of you could add some clarity. Cheers
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      10 September 2019 @ 16:32
      Blake we structurally like gold but it is VERY extended. As we've written we like taking some profits here and then adding on a dip
  • RA
    Robert A.
    10 September 2019 @ 15:33
    Just wanted to confirm that we got stopped out of Julian’s KBE short this morning @ 43.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      10 September 2019 @ 16:31
      Yes. Have to stick to the discipline. That said as I mentioned on the video if we are in a big trend to zero rates here in the US these banks will get crushed and to me are a better play than fixed income
  • RG
    Rakesh G.
    8 September 2019 @ 23:05
    Hi New subscriber- what is this trade-Bu y December 2019 - 98/98.5 Call Spreads. thanks RG
  • LV
    Lewis V.
    5 September 2019 @ 17:57
    Raoul now that we've cleared out the COT would you still fade Dec Copper or is the position stopped out?
  • TH
    Trina H.
    5 September 2019 @ 13:08
    Is there a recommended ETF to trade Julian's recommendation of Buy Gold/EUR?
  • HK
    Hendrik K.
    4 September 2019 @ 05:11
    Thanks - please new Ideas as I only entered this week
    • rt
      remi t. | Founder
      4 September 2019 @ 12:03
      Welcome Hendrik, our trade recommendations are always published inside "In focus" usually published on 14th and 21th of each month, keep an eye out.
    • HK
      Hendrik K.
      4 September 2019 @ 21:15
      Thanks!
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    4 September 2019 @ 14:20
    Raoul and Julian seem to have different risk management processes. Do they go over their position sizing by any chance? There are a few ways to size a position (difference between entry and stop as a percent of overall capital (e.g. 50BP to 100BP); or total position allocation as percent of capital (e.g. 5 or 6% longs (maybe higher on conviction), 3% shorts, etc.)) and getting a handle on their risk profiles would be very helpful. Many thanks, Geoff
  • AS
    Amit S.
    3 September 2019 @ 15:20
    Held on to Raoul's original reco of UUP dec 27 calls at 0.30, its up by 43% 🤞🏻
    • rt
      remi t. | Founder
      4 September 2019 @ 12:06
      Nice one!
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    3 September 2019 @ 16:36
    Can we get some targets and stop levels on here as well please?
    • rt
      remi t. | Founder
      4 September 2019 @ 11:57
      Hi there, I am working on this suggestion to be added on our next release. thank you.