Macro Is Dead, Long Live Macro

Published on: December 14th, 2017

It has been a tough year for macro investors, but there are early signs that change is afoot. The potential for a dollar rally is rising, and this will bring trouble for EM.


  • CB
    Clifford B.
    15 December 2017 @ 18:16
    Julian, I hear you about the DXY and the need to look at the USD in a setting not as closely tied to the Euro or the Yen. When you separated out other currencies and gave them different weights, is this similar to any other dollar indexes? What about USDU? How does that compare to your hybrid index? Also, I'm trying to figure a way to remain long on India (I share Raoul's enthusiasm) but short on EM, but in a way that is currency hedged -- any ideas on that? Thanks!
  • TP
    Trevor P.
    20 December 2017 @ 00:55
    Clifford brings up an excellent point and I concur with this thinking on India and would love to hear about any ideas where we stay long India, short EM, and hedge the currency. Thanks
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    9 January 2018 @ 10:27
    Catching up on my reading, after a relaxing Christmas. EEM has rallied ~4% since publication, as has ADXY. The BBDXY Index (Bloomberg Dollar Spot, hopefully a replication of your index?) has fallen 1.5%. Not sure what this all means, but doesn't seem like any of your scenarios... Thoughts?