Meeting Of Minds – April 2019

Published on: April 28th, 2019

In Julian’s In Focus, he weighed up the competing forces of inflation and deflation following the Fed’s pivot to looser monetary conditions and in his Meeting of Mind, he follows this with a more detailed discussion of how the credit cycle may dictate the terms on which the Fed will be forced to act. Meanwhile, Raoul comes down clearly on the side of a recession and deflation in his bigger picture take on the rising risks of a recession in this month’s Meeting of Minds.

Comments

  • VG
    Vivek G.
    13 May 2019 @ 05:35
    Raoul - can you help with a clear action we need to take wrt Eurodollars? Appreciate specifics. Thanks in advance Regards
  • B
    Brandon .
    1 May 2019 @ 12:44
    Any recommendations for history books on the mid 60s / early 70s ?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      4 May 2019 @ 17:34
      My suggestion "The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence". There are also some good paper https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2012/10/01/the-great-inflation-a-historical-overview-and-lessons-learned/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2000/july/exploring-the-causes-of-the-great-inflation/
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    3 May 2019 @ 10:50
    I am a second generation Hong Konger. Last year we sold our properties and moved to Mauritius. The reason is as explained by Kyle.... extremely risky to keep assets in Hong Kong. A good proportion of our assets are still in Hong Kong dollars... probably need to do something about that asap.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    29 April 2019 @ 22:45
    Raoul/Julian, any thoughts on this week’s FOMC meeting and a 50bps cut?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      30 April 2019 @ 20:28
      Daniel the Fed has clearly shown that if faced with market or data weakness their bias is to cut. Now, the doves would argue that the data especially inflation is already sufficiently weak to justify a move. But my sense is that for the moment they don't yet command a majority. Hence, I'm not expecting too much this week. However, given what we are seeing in the models, Q2 was always going to be the economic soft patch and especially if we ever get any equity weakness the picture could change by the June meeting. As for the size of a cut I'd only expect 25bps unless stocks and the data are really collapsing.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      1 May 2019 @ 01:55
      Thanks Julian. My mind was starting to join dots; slapping down the dollar, avoiding another credit event like Dec-18 and driving share markets higher. I think at worst we see a repeat of the dovish message. They started justifying this cut when they used a small deflator in the GDP print last week
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    30 April 2019 @ 16:34
    Do either Raoul or Julian have any thoughts on this 2 trillion infrastructure bill that gaining traction? In a best case scenario of this bill passing do you guys believe this could keep this cycle from peaking here and stretch this out once again like in 2016?
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      30 April 2019 @ 17:42
      Ive found Julians old note in my notebook and he touched on a 300B plan to rebuild America similar to the likes of the 1960s and this in turn was successful in catching the business cycle from going in to a recession. Julian, is this possible again with GDP peaking at around 3%ish will this new 2 trillion spending bill be big enough to create even more excesses in equities and spark even higher inflation?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      30 April 2019 @ 21:20
      Hi Miguel its still early days as their are LOTS of hurdles to cross before e actually see the spending, especially in terms of how it is funding and what environmental regulations are attached. BUT I believe that Pelosi is very driven to ensuring that the economy is running as hot as possible into the election. That's because she sees her biggest threat as the progressive left vs the President and a strong economy = good for incumbents. Together, with potentially Fed cuts this year, this would set us up perfectly for a repeat of the late 60's. That as I've written was an environment where stocks were the best asset. But bonds got toasted, because yields failed to rise sufficiently offset the rise in inflation.
  • JD
    John D.
    29 April 2019 @ 18:50
    Reading this report with the hindsight of that 3.2% Q1 print is tough. Could obviously be revised lower, but that was a strong initial print no matter how you cut it.
    • JD
      John D.
      29 April 2019 @ 19:33
      Although to be fair, one could make a strong case that looking under the proverbial GDP hood, the headline print was not nearly as attractive as it looks on the surface.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      30 April 2019 @ 20:29
      John as per above our models didn't suggest any weakness in Q1. Q2 is when I believe we see the weakness and out work suggests the YoY rate will drop in half.
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    29 April 2019 @ 19:15
    I agree with you Raoul- I am all in on bonds

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.