Meeting of Minds – February 2019

Published on: February 28th, 2019

In this month’s Meeting Of Minds Raoul goes on to provide more on the macro impulses and the data series he is following. He highlights that leading indicator of US domestic and international growth all point to weakening trends as we move towards Q2. Meanwhile, Julian steps back from the hurly-burly of price action and trading to look at a multi-year dynamic developing before our eyes in the first of a two-part series RIP Corporate Capitalism.

Comments

  • MG
    Miguel G.
    6 March 2019 @ 15:25
    Julian I thought your piece was brilliant. Loved how you shed light as to how we got to where we are today. Although I felt a wave of sadness come over me, its better to deal with the reality of things than be blinded by what we wish was gong on. Thanks for that piece loved it.
  • BC
    Brent C.
    1 March 2019 @ 14:53
    Julian, did I see an article on bloomberg where you posited the trade deal now means risk on for US assets?
    • gb
      gavin b.
      5 March 2019 @ 02:57
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/longtime-bear-says-absolutely-time-to-buy-risk-amid-china-deal My impression, Julian's advice to clients was to buy EM at the start of Jan '19.
    • BC
      Brent C.
      6 March 2019 @ 13:42
      thanks for the reply gavin. my point was more so, we ARE his clients as well. and i didn't see that here first. perhaps i missed an update? if not, a little disappointing to see it as a headline grabber on bloomberg.
  • CS
    C S.
    3 March 2019 @ 04:04
    This most asymmetric trade Kyle has ever seen, Raoul - does it have something to do with the HKD or HK assets? (this is Macro INSIDERS, afterall) :D
  • CL
    Charl L.
    3 March 2019 @ 01:47
    Raoul : How do you see the recent stimulus by China to bail the market and economy out ? Will it extend the cycle with a few months or what is the probability of this being another 2016 scenario ? Julian : Russel Napier said in a recent interview that the Chinese currency has been over valued for the last 20 years. I'm getting confused now. Is it under valued as you mention or over valued ? I would have though undervalued as that is the preferred way to boost exports.
  • lD
    lance D.
    2 March 2019 @ 19:35
    Hi seeing as china has stimulated will this take away from emerging markets? as the expectations are for china shares to be the trade for now ? weighing down other markets as the spec money prefers Ashares if so how long could the momentum last in your experience. not sure if any of that makes sense but thats all i have OR put another way - basically something happened in china markets the otherday but many countries did not benefit like the china market. y? cheers
  • RM
    R M.
    2 March 2019 @ 15:25
    Julian: A while back you offered 118.50 as a reasonable stop level on the TLT. Any update? Bond prices not reacting well to the GDP report. Any update on rates? Thank you!