Meeting of Minds – July 2017

Published on: July 28th, 2017

Raoul continues his analysis on the inevitable pensions crisis developing as the Baby Boomer cohort move inexorably towards retirement. Julian meanwhile, takes a look at one important aspect of the financial anatomy: namely the pernicious use of leverage based on unstable correlation assumptions. The common ground is that liquidity needs to be continuously reassessed as the investment environment changes.


  • NB
    Neil B.
    3 August 2017 @ 22:15
    Hi Raoul and Julian. Really interested in your thoughts on all the following: The markets have essentially turned into one giant game of chicken built off CB interventions and manipulations. US Market Volatility at lows not seen since 1994/95 and 2006/07 period. Market is not being allowed to correct due to blind deployment of $ inflows into index ETF's and Funds which increasingly drives allocation to the top tier index stocks which simply creates a self fulfilling cycle of perpetual inflows into those leading stocks which pulls the indexes ever upwards and smashes volatility anew and the opportunity to have even a "normal" correction of any kind. There is a bubble in indexing and passive in my view. And I am also concerned with the entire ETF complex. There are actually more ETF's out there than actual underlying stocks in the US. Also many ETF's and ETN's that are leveraged and derivatives based. I wonder what will happen in a world where we have essentially mainstreamed derivative and leveraged based trading access to the "common" participant when whatever sparks even a minimal run for the market exists. Given this and how used to extreme low volatility participants have become accustomed to, perhaps even the start of a garden variety market correction could quickly morph into something more severe. Not predicting it but just food for thought. My best guess is that market will reach some sort of correction sooner than later now ( finally ) which will create enough uncertainty and head fake before yet another ramp higher. Market's job is to fool most of the people most of the time and extract $ from most for the benefit of the few. Plus with amazing manipulation and intervention, both mechanically and verbally, by CB and CB officials .. what's to stop them from simply doing whatever it takes to save the market form any major decline? I know eventually it will no longer work but it seems to have worked thus far. Even with the demographics shifts and the risk parity risks ... again has there ever been a time when the markets have been so highly engaged with and hanging off CB's before? Astonishing QA and negative interest rates forcing everyone to take higher risks to gain a return. Just remember that markets can stay irrational longer than most can remain solvent. Shorts have been absolutely slaughtered by the market and it's low vol steady, unending rise. Also I see since the DXY is now under pressure and approaching/on the last line of supposed bull market support areas .... there is a lot of bearish $ talk out there. Also talk of trade wars and fact that the Trump agenda ( health care reform, tax reform, economic infrastructure etc... ) is being stalled out by those working against him in the Congress is supposedly all removing some of the impetus for USD strength. Also talk of the relative rate rise potential in EU area from their NIRP zone supposedly overshadowing the US FED rate rise regime ( which already seems to be on hold based on Yellen's latest comments and FED inaction at their last meeting ) buttressing the EUR against the USD ( of course it's already moved strongly higher thus far recently so perhaps it's all "priced in" ). But no matter what, if markets correct USD will be the liquidity beneficiary even if for only some period of time. Queston is to what degree markets correct and when .. which would breath more life into the USD bull case in my view in that it would turn sentiment from very negative to very positive and help fuel a next potential leg up in keeping with Raoul's thesis that we have not seen a top in this USD bull run yet. But right now we are on shaky technical ground. In my view and based on my comments posted previously in Raoul's In Focus piece on the USD, the actual final line in the sand is the horizontal support form 88 to 90 in the DXY. Raoul's is a bit higher than that at 91 to 92 and that is being threatened right now. So far it's holding. But even if it breaks below it could lead to a false break down to get everyone to give up the goose and panic out of the USD only to reverse. Also I notice on the daily and weekly time frame charts for the DXY there is yet to be any positive divergence on the technicals. I'd really like to see some positive divergence appear ultimately here where we get a lower low in price but a higher high on the technicals like MACD / PPO and/or RSI. Not sure what everyone else sees. But in my view the USD is not yet done in it's bull run for no other reason perhaps than during the forthcoming market correction - even a "normal one" which we have not seen for ( I know it never seems to come but it will eventually and I think the window here is opening up for one to occur based on the internals of the market ) the USD will benefit in risk off environment and there will be a mad dash for $ cash. Especially since sentiment on the USD is very negative right now that will only add to the snap back retracement move in the USD. Also I notice that the Dow Jones Transports index in the US is not confirming the new high in the Dow Jones Industrials index. Just my thoughts currently. We shall see Thanks
    • NB
      Neil B.
      3 August 2017 @ 23:58
      BTW, I am also seeing MACD / PPO and RSI negative divergences across all US main indexes on the daily and weekly charts. Divergences can go on of course without leading to much or anything before they stop being divergent as price continues higher ... but they can be a sign of price moves reaching exhaustion expecially when across multiple time frames. Note that negative divergences have been in place before in this latest bull run leg but have either resolved to no longer being divergent or not led to anything significant to the downside thus far.
    • NB
      Neil B.
      4 August 2017 @ 00:02
      ... but I'd say that the more frequent a string of divergence setups we have consecutively continues over time ( without any or any meaningful decline ) the greater and greater the exhaustion levels being signaled by that stream of divergences which would resolve to something more significant upcoming ultimately.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      6 August 2017 @ 20:29
      Hi Neil B Wow that's quite some essay. But here are some thoughts. I completely agree with your observations on indexing. Investors are pilling into "safe" passive indexing at exactly the wrong time. But hey that's the nature of the beast. As you correctly observe, in the process, its creating an ever narrower group of leaders many of which if you saw one of my previous presentations are classic bubbles. It doesn't mean that they aren't great companies (MSFT is a great firm but was a bubble in 2000). It just means that on a loss of momentum you need to be VERY careful. AMZN currently looks vulnerable. In terms, of the continuous market manipulation by monetary authorities, I completely agree and big picture that isn't about to change. But there is one scenario, which I think we need to consider that could at least temporarily curtail their ability to intervene and that's inflation. Interestingly, while I expect US inflation to rebound into year end and if Trump delivers we could see materially higher wages/inflation. The immediate risk is Europe. The ECB and the likes of the Riksbank have overcooked the goose and eased into a fall in oil prices because they got scared of deflation. But lower oil prices are ultimately stimulative especially, in Europe. Hence, our work suggests a burst of materially higher inflation is coming, which will catch the ECB and not just European but global bond markets offside. As we saw in the spring of 2015, the risk is that a rapid bond re-pricing will hurt equities and more importantly authorities will find it MUCH harder to prevent the move. How does the ECB or Fed say "we can do more QE" if they have inflation even if its fleeting? As we discussed in this Meeting of Minds, bond bubbles are very dangerous because they challenge portfolio theory as bonds and equities both sell off. Of course, eventually the authorities will react to the equity weakness but I'm hoping that sets us up for Trump's fiscal package and the final $ up move. PS short term, back in March, we advocated to our institutional clients to buy EURUSD on the break of 1.08. We just hit our 1.18 target and took profit.
    • NB
      Neil B.
      7 August 2017 @ 02:50
      Hi Julian. Thanks very much your responses! Yes about the Euro there are some who are getting very bullish on it at the moment but it looks quite over extended on the upside as the DXY ( and some of the major USD currency pairs ) are to the downside. I also have been theorizing that, despite the Trump agenda/policies which require Congressional cooperation/action to enact ( ironically many of those in the Republican party within Congress who campaigned themselves on many of the principles Trump won election on essentially blocking progress despite Republicans controlling the House and Senate ) being stalled out currently, that a "good" crisis event is all that is needed to grease the wheels of action. In that if and when we get an "unexpected" risk off event and economic decline that it will provide the environment for Congress to start cooperating with Trump policies on things like infrastructure and tax reform which would have a stimulative effect. That on top of the FED actions at the time to help quell the declines ( more rate cuts / QE ) would set the stage for precious metals and related stocks to finally conclude their basing action and begin to rise in earnest on the anticipation for further monetary debasement and economic induced higher inflation rates. Not sure where you and Raoul see precious metals in terms of the macro setup but right now I think, despite many having called the bottom in them they are not quite yet in and still need to shake loose some of the die hards before going on the real upswing. Also I see the crypto currency complex as drawing huge amounts of attention and funds away from the traditional precious metals "safe haven" / anti-fiat-currency regime at the moment. If crypto's were not on the scene I think there would be a bigger bid under the precious metals complex. Not to mention the huge manipulation / price suppression of precious metals in the unallocated futures market. Thus, I feel there is also a large upside opportunity brewing in the precious metals complex under the covers ( but not just yet perhaps ) and the tide will turn up for it right around the time most have given up on them since they have disappointed many for quite a long time now. Thanks
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      1 February 2018 @ 18:49
      Hi Neil, You summarise the dilemma very well. As to the extent of any likely equity correction that's really hard to call in advance. Perhaps it's just 5% but given how the market is essentially short volatility just as it was in 1987 its not hard to envisage a much sharper fall. (We are watching European equities very closely because they already look like they are cracking). As for the $, my bet is that the next move is a "risk off" rally i.e. it occurs as we see asset prices fall (probably stocks and bonds at the same time) and given the underlying shortfalls we discussed when we launched MI the rally will be swift and destructive. As I think I mentioned, I'm watching the YoY rate of change to see signs that the rate of the $'s decline maybe slowing. If it does that would be the first step to getting bullish on the $. PS. What stops the CBs from maintaining this charade is inflation. It will be impossible for the Fed to launch QE4 if we have inflation.
  • AD
    Alexander D.
    17 August 2017 @ 00:53
    I just wanted to say great comments everyone. As valuable as the core content of not more. Has anyone considered any other specific trades that would be able to take advantage of the insights Raoul and Julian provided? Also always interested in hearing how everyone manages risk as Julian so wisely advised. Obviously that is a broad category and I'd love to hear specific tactics and/or strategies being used by others. Thanks!
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    16 August 2017 @ 16:22
    Per IRS regulations, after reaching age 70½, you are generally required to start withdrawing money from a traditional 401(k) or IRA. Why would BB not sell equities/ETF from their 401k?
  • LD
    Lance D.
    28 July 2017 @ 11:49
    So if everybody goes for the exit as A M. describes will is my money going to be safe with my broker Saxo Bank ?
    • KJ
      Keith J.
      29 July 2017 @ 18:16
      Don't keep all your eggs in one basket would be my advice!
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      14 August 2017 @ 05:19
      Be very careful; I know of two brokers going bankrupt and clients lost all their money. Don't use white - labelled brokers in particular !
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    13 August 2017 @ 11:22
    Very valuable exchanges with subscribers. Love it. Thanks, everyone.
  • RM
    R M.
    28 July 2017 @ 11:40
    Excellent and thoughtful pieces. Julian: Will the high yield on CEF's like DSL and PCI help shield them from a bond asset decline, or will they similarly fall equally as bond prices fall? Or are they impacted worse than other bond based products, as everyone heads for the exit? Thank you both!
    • kb
      keith b.
      11 August 2017 @ 00:05
      dont forget the ST funded leverage in the CEFs just to muddy the waters
  • NS
    Nathaniel S.
    29 July 2017 @ 15:53
    Raoul Since BBs have equity in houses, when cash is needed do you have a view on how they will access? Debt? Sale and downsize (lowering cost of living esp. if property taxes raise to deal w pension shortfall)? Looking at possible knock-on effects in housing markets when cash is needed to live such as an increase in supply w decrease in demand. Love to hear your view and if there's research on this you can share. Thanks for the great article.
    • kb
      keith b.
      11 August 2017 @ 00:02
      millennial demographics point to a potential housing boom in 2020-22.. so allow for possibility that that takes up some of the supply from BBers selling
  • AM
    Anja M.
    7 August 2017 @ 10:56
    Roaul, concerning the BB-paper I've some thougths: While I fully agree to the expected changes in consumer spending, I have some doubt on the proposed massive equity selling of BB's themselves. When 1% of BB's own 99% of BB's total wealth, to me that would mean that they also own a vast majority of stocks held by BB's. 99% do not have any (significant) amounts of stocks and therefore cannot sell large volumes. The 1% on the other side may need to sell only very little to support their living standard, i.e. they can keep the vast majority of what they already have. On the other side, I fully agree that U.S. pension funds will have to sell significant amounts of their overall assets in order to meet outlays. Anja
    • NB
      Neil B.
      7 August 2017 @ 13:22
      Anja M. That is a very good point indeed worthy of further exploration and feedback from Raoul. I had also posed some thoughts along the lines of unprecedented CB intervention in this market cycle which, even if BB unwind ensues, could "simply" come in on top of it to stabilize and prop things up. But your point about essentially the top 1% holding the vast majority of wealth being a possible additional underpinning is very salient. They are in fact the group who would benefit the most from further global CB accommodation in terms of being able to tap into the results of that accommodation in various more sophisticated ways and asset classes to take advantage of downswings in the markets to accumulate even more wealth potential in anticipation of a market recovery. The utterly confusing and challenging part of today's markets is the unbelievable intervention and manipulation by global CB's. It's all out in the open ( as in it seems to me literally everyone who has any awareness of markets at all these days realizes what's going on and talks openly about it ... increasingly driving every decision on it ). That alone at some stage should drive risk off simply due to the fact that it is not sustainable ( or is it? ) ... but thus far they've kept it going. The end game will arrive eventually but those who have attempted to anticipate it have had a rough time of it. Literally passive investors who have simply thrown money at the markets blindly ( without worrying about the logic of it all ) have over performed actively managed hedge funds ( many of which have attempted to trade against the illogical nature of today's markets ) by 300% in this recent market cycle according to one statistic I have seen! Volatility at long term historic lows and selling of volatility being literally the common person's perpetual trade of the moment. All this, in and of itself it seems, cannot last. But again, what's to stop highly manipulative CB's from compensating for the BB unwind in conjunction with that top 1% controlling group who need to sell very little ( if at all ) which you noted?
    • TA
      The A.
      7 August 2017 @ 21:26
      According to data from Vanguard, the top 10% of baby boomers owns 88% of the equity holdings. As Jawad Mian explained: "Rather than selling stocks to fund their lifestyle and retirement needs, this group is far more likely to focus on estate planning and intergenerational wealth transfers. The corollary is that the potential “supply” of stocks may not be as great as widely feared."
    • NB
      Neil B.
      8 August 2017 @ 23:08
      Joeri M. Very Good point as well about the inter-generational transfer ( vs. out right selling ) which BB's may potentially more likely engage in. Also I'd submit that any BB's who are on the wealthier end of the spectrum ( and the ones in fact who hold the vast majority of the BB wealth tied up in the stock market ) are more apt to estate plan their holdings in a manner which may not result in as much out right selling as might be anticipated by the straight BB age and retirement statistics. Also, one more point to add ... there are actually a declining number of stocks listed in the US ( down from around 8,000 in 1999 to around 4,000 currently ). This declining supply of stocks listed and available for investment/trading is also contributing, I believe, to the rising equity tide ( more yield starved $ chasing fewer and fewer stocks ). This declining float may also contribute to countering BB potential outflows?
    • GM
      Gerald M.
      10 August 2017 @ 03:18
      Price is often determined at the margins. From As of March 31, 2017, 401(k) plans held an estimated $5.0 trillion in assets and represented 19 percent of the $26.1 trillion in US retirement assets, which includes employer-sponsored retirement plans... 401(k)'s are where the majority of BBs have their retirement. And it's not small (5 Trillion!). Price will be set on the margin by the most aggressive seller and I wouldn't expect under-saved BB's to have a cool head in the next recession as they watch 10%, 20% or 30% of their life savings disappear. They are out of runway and will panic quickly by unloading 401(k) assets into the market and who will be the buyer (and are they big enough to catch it all before it gets really bad)? It's possible the Fed just expands their balance sheet by purchasing equities like Japan. It might be an interesting trade as they unwind bonds and replace it with equities. If so, then it may be smooth sailing. But I think the salient point here is that there is a non-zero risk that things don't go well.
  • AM
    A M.
    28 July 2017 @ 10:52
    On the topic of ETFs I found this gem a month or two ago: "SEC to allow delisting ETFs in saturated market A Securities and Exchange Commission rule, effective in October, would allow an exchange-traded fund to be delisted if its index became too concentrated or its underlying assets became illiquid. The regulator seeks to protect investors as the $2.8 billion ETF market continues to expand." No need to worry! The SEC are determined to engineer a "permanently high plateau" for equity prices!
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      1 August 2017 @ 15:37
      Seems to me that rule is NOT about protecting investors --who won't be able to get their money out when ETF is delisted. More about saving the ETF issuing organization. What am i missing?
    • AM
      A M.
      2 August 2017 @ 10:25
      Takes a bit of the unwanted inventory off the shelf to ease the crash. Fed can then buy the ETFs to let the bag holders escape! New form of quantitative easing!
    • NB
      Neil B.
      7 August 2017 @ 03:00
      I've commented above on the ETF complex ... and I also agree that complex on the whole adds a whole lot if potential risk and instability to markets due to how much the markets have been sliced and diced into so many trade-able chunks which are also many times based on debt instruments ( like ETN's ... Exchange Traded Notes ), derivatives ( the inverse and leveraged ETF's ). Also as noted above how concentrated some ETF's ave become. Take a research into what happened with the GDXJ ETF recently. It was forced to sell large stakes in many Junior Precious Metals miners simply because it got too concentrated and was in violation of it's charter. This in turn pressured down the stocks of the Juniors they had to sell. And in turn GDXJ replaces the sold allocation in Juniors with further allocation to the large cap Precious Metals stocks ( the ones that it's cousin GDX ETF typically holds ) , thereby watering down their charter of being a "Junior Mining" ETF. A very ironic circular problem. Anyway it goes to the point of increasingly concentrated ETF's. Same is happening ( as I noted in another thread above ) with the major index ETF's. Higher and higher allocation to the top echelon of out performing mega cap stocks on a automated mechanisms as more and more money keeps blindly flowing into the passive index ETF's. I'm not against ETF's don't get me wrong. Just pointing out that they hold the potential fuel for some interesting and unstable outcomes under certain marker conditions to perpetuate declining phases like never before as traders and investors unwind their positions when weakness sets into place.
  • GC
    Gary C.
    2 August 2017 @ 00:29
    Julian, your furniture comment precipitated a trip to Home Depot in search of some "Super Monkey Grip" Fed proof Velcro sheets, the orange jacketed fellow manning the adhesive isle struggled to understand my intended application. He assured me the adhesive tensile strength was maximum legally allowed, but alas after getting a landline phone and scratchpad firmly attached.......the rest of the furniture still rests on the floor,.....but I inverted it all....thinking attempted compliance to bank regs was sort of noble
  • SS
    Sam S.
    31 July 2017 @ 13:48
    Sweet! I've just gotten some value for my $$$ on being part of Macro Insiders. Glad they're discussing "actionable" strategy which could prove profitable beyond subscription costs and loss of principle. If that happens, the price of being a member is priceless. We'll all be vacationing in the Cayman Islands!
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      1 August 2017 @ 21:08
      Hmmm. As a BB i'm lucky to have my own business so i can keep working on what i love. In that regard, i've been retired for years because it is not work. A lot of us are in that category. And, then at some point [when rules make me] i'm going to draw down my CDs first, and only then look to pull money from equities. And, as i'm forced to start to pull money out by 70.5 years of age, i'll do that in a planful way --and re-invest that after taxes paid money in equities because it is the only place to get a decent return. I can short the market if it is going down to make money, or go long, similarly. What i need from Macro Insiders is to have a decent estimate of the timing of those big events so that i know how to allocate my day [weekly position] trades. And, as for the remarks about the mistakes that we amateurs make, i've was one of those folks who pulled money out of the professional investors because they weren't minding the store in 2008-09. Screw them. they screwed me. I had money with lots of the "great investing minds." Since then i not only got all the money back that they lost for me by investing myself, i've made much much more on top of that --much more than they ever made for me. And, i'm doing it part time --i have a business to run. Sure, we've been in a great bull. But so were they pre 2008. And i can be liquid within minutes in terms of managing risk. So, let's have a little love for us amateurs, please.
  • MD
    Michael D.
    31 July 2017 @ 19:19
    Raoul & Julian - Wonder whether a special "Macro Insiders" chatroom, help board or something like that where members could more generally ask questions / share ideas would garner interest. Of course, there's always Twitter... But for example, I'm having trouble finding a trading platform that offers options on eurodollar futures out to dec 2018. Can't even seem to do that with InterActiveBrokers. If anyone here has suggestions for a US resident, I'd love to hear them. Thx!
    • JL
      J L.
      31 July 2017 @ 20:01
      Completely agree discussion space is the only weak point of RV, you can feel it is run by finance rather than tech people ;) A basic forum would be very useful for members to post ideas and ask questions that are not directly related to an article or video and declutter the comments section. As to your question here is how it looks for me on the IB TWS option trader by clicking on the "more" tab you I can choose the underlying future out to June 2021
    • MD
      Michael D.
      31 July 2017 @ 22:00
      Perfect. Thanks EF!
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      1 August 2017 @ 02:23
      Hey michael - regarding ur EDZ8 options, you can do it on IB. They use different ticker: GE globex euro-dollar
  • GS
    Garrett S.
    30 July 2017 @ 19:10
    My biggest concerns reside more with CBs + High Frequency trading. Almost to the point where fundamentals no longer matter. Liquidity is almost always added in pre markets to prevent selling. Its like clock work for currencies and equities in US markets around 6:00-6:30 am. I still believe in cycles and try my hardest to play on macro conditions on a 2-3 years timeline. It just gets frustrating when you have been sitting on roughly 45% cash waiting for the opportunity to buy equities at a discount. I'm a believer in taking risk only when opportunity presents itself heavily. Currently I'm short the spy and qqq while long gold and silver. Waiting for more confirmations on the dollar and heavy cash. I also dabbled in Jan 2019 puts in F and FCAU
  • ZD
    Zachary D.
    30 July 2017 @ 02:47
    It definitely does seem like Raoul's and Julian's ideas form a long and short term view of markets. Raoul's is more structural and longer term while Julian is around 1-4 years(I'm thinking), even though he did use a 700 year chart!! If Julian is correct and a rise in inflation gives the green light to raise rates, that may be a great entry point for Raoul's structural change thesis. What a first issue this would be!!!
  • WB
    Wes B.
    28 July 2017 @ 14:07
    Raoul, I've heard this argument about BBs retiring for a while now and I'm yet to see someone acknowledge that precisely the time that BBs are retiring their kids who are likely 25-30 years younger then them (Millennials and a larger generation) will entering their peak spending years. Is there a scenario where Millennial 401k flows absorb BB sales?
    • JL
      J L.
      28 July 2017 @ 21:37
      My fear would be that the build up in millenial pensions/savings may be fairly linear over a lifetime while a concentrated selloff by a large number of people retiring could be self-reinforcing and cause others retiring to feel the need for "safer" assets
    • ZD
      Zachary D.
      30 July 2017 @ 02:12
      Millennials entering their peak spending years is different than millennials entering their peak SAVING years. Yes, millennial will tend to spend frivolously on new clothes, cars and vacations; generally they won't have the financial wherewithal to purchase equities, bonds or even housing in sufficient quantities at the current levels. The liquidation/consumption of financial capital by BBs won't be absorbed by new buyers at these price levels. Thus, heavy forced selling will beget more heavy forced selling as one unit of whatever does not fetch the same price it once did. And I feel like I just plagiarized...
  • GB
    Greg B.
    29 July 2017 @ 02:09
    "The Almighty tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're f**ked."
    • ZD
      Zachary D.
      30 July 2017 @ 01:55
      There is no better applicable Braveheart quote than that...
  • KJ
    Keith J.
    29 July 2017 @ 18:11
    Certainly some food for thought in here. For me the killer line was "Europeans have mainly come to terms with the lower returns from their private pensions but not their state entitlements. Their governments will live with the realities later as their state pension systems collapse along with many defined benefit schemes." It's as much worth thinking about what the path to this collapse means as the end collapse itself. Governments won't give up public sector pension entitlements without first attempting to confiscate as much as they can from investors who have seizable assets. In the UK, unlike what's discussed here about the US, there are no public pension plans with a pool of money that will run out at a given time, it's 100% on the never never for future taxpayers to stump up. When you start to see stories like Grant posted and kite flying for 100% inheritance tax in the UK this week, I think spreading capital around different asset classes, institutions and even jurisdictions will become more important, especially as Raoul says when the next recession happens and the previously unthinkable becomes reality. Enough of the doom and gloom - hoping for some great positive ideas for where to invest in the coming weeks and months!
  • JM
    John M.
    29 July 2017 @ 06:36
    If most BB don't have adequate savings to retire and therefore begin to fall short in retirement I wonder if we get the next phase of QE - Helicopter money?
  • LD
    Lance D.
    28 July 2017 @ 11:36
    OK, I think you all come around to my house for sunday dinner, to explain this further to me..... the wife does a mean yorkshire pud !!

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

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James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.