Meeting Of Minds – July 2018

Published on: July 28th, 2018

In this month’s Meeting of Minds piece, Raoul develops his bearish framework, concluding with a hit list of potential short trades ranging from European car manufacturers, EU banks, EM sovereign debt and junk bond ETFs to assorted currency pairs versus USD. Julian takes a step back to look at how policymakers have tied themselves in knots. The BIS (the Central Banks’ central bank) never flinches from highlighting fault lines in the financial system.

Comments

  • EL
    Elizabeth L.
    31 July 2018 @ 16:23
    0 0
    Thank Raoul and Julian for this detailed and informative Meeting of the Minds.
  • MW
    Marco W.
    29 July 2018 @ 02:00
    1 0
    Just as the INTC profit warning in sep 2000 marked the finishing point of the 2000 top (with the primary peak in Mar 2000) and the peak of network capacity in the 2000s, the INTC profit warning last week could just mark the finishing point of 2018 top (with the primary peak in Jan 2018) and the peak of cloud capacity in the next 10 years. Fang , KWEB, QQQ are the most vulnerable. For where Raoul and Julian disagree, I will be careful not to jump the gun until both agree. :) A contrarian will be like this: tech is the victim of trade war and grain will be the beneficial of the trade war.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    29 July 2018 @ 00:35
    7 0
    RP -> The graph on page 19 showing a potential H&S for the SPX has already been invalidated. There was a recent post on Twitter from Nautilus Capital showing SPX now vs SPX in 1987 - there is a 97% positive correlation. This also chimes very well with Peter Brandt's analysis that shows the SPX may not top out until around 3500. With regards to the trade wars - its US election time in November and Trump may well 'resolve' this issue before then, which (could) lead to a last strong move up in markets before finally topping out? Also, many of your charts are well out of date by about a month, e.g. Tesla, EEM, JNK, etc. Although I completely appreciate your correlations with some asset classes to 2000 and 2008, the economic fundamentals are not the same today as back then, and so, (I personally) question whether you can rely on the same potential outcomes? There are many people trying to fit previous patterns to today's (very different) backdrops and I'm not convinced the outcomes will be same, but I will be keeping a very close watch to see how events unfold. On your next video session can you both expand on your US bond thinking more, as you appear to be holding totally opposite views on this? Cheers